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August 31, 2026
 
     
  Month-End Snoozer  
     
 

Today was pretty much a snoozer other than crude popping over 3 percent to just outside of its compression triangle on the charts (the "why" doesn't matter). Blast off time?

The S&Ps lost a touch. The dollar was a touch weaker, while yields rose a couple bps again in the long end as the curve steepened slightly.

Commodities were mostly lower again except for copper, which rose a percent, and crude, as I mentioned above.

Gold slipped a touch, while silver bounced a touch. The GDX fell another percent.

I still think we can probably get some sort of bounce over the next couple days in the metals and miners, but I suspect another slide is likely going into Friday's jobs data, which is probably going to be good enough to keep a rate hike on the table for the 16th.

My model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, STRC and IBIT.

Metals: Flat

 
     
     
 
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