As everyone now knows, the jobs data came in hot at 172,000 nonfarm payrolls, and while I think the market is wrong about this, the fed funds futures market priced in a rate hike by year-end.

As for the reaction, the S&Ps slumped as the dollar popped. Gold & silver & BTC all tumbled, and yields popped as the curve flattened. Crude had been a little softer even before the data on "deal" hopes, and basically didn't move.

The S&Ps opened down, and we were off to the water park. The remainder of the session was a nonstop slide that sent the S&Ps out on the lows of the day with a loss of over 2.5 percent.

BTC tumbled over 5 percent and slightly undercut its Feb low. MSTR, however, fell 7 percent and interestingly didn't take out its Feb low? We'll see how that divergence resolves next week.

The dollar surged to a new high for the move per the DXY, which rose over half a percent. Yields also surged but mostly in the Fed-sensitive short end.

Commodities were spanked across the board. Copper fell 4 percent. Platinum fell over 6 percent to a new low for the move since its high and well below the 200 dma. Palladium tumbled as well and fell over 6 percent. Crude also came in and was off over 3 percent, which failed to put a bid under anything not nailed down like it usually does.

Gold collapsed through the 200 dma and $4400 to eventually slide to as low as $4313 before bouncing a little at the close to end closer to $4328 for a loss of nearly 4 percent.

Silver tanked even harder and fell over 8 percent to within pennies of its 200 dma.

The GDX gapped down and collapsed nearly 9 percent to just below its March low.

The market believes the Fed is going to remain tough against the coming inflation from the oil spike (and the spike yet to come). I think the market is wrong about that, but it may take Warsh telling it so in two weeks at the FOMC. In the meantime, hawkish assumptions may rule the day, and an AI bubble collapse may be an interesting wrinkle as well given the beating that tech has taken over the past couple days. Watch the South Korean KOSPI tonight. Should be fun.

I still believe gold and silver are on their way to taking out the March lows, and gold has now done so on a closing basis (although its intraday March nadir is down around $4100). The GDX closed below its March low, and silver is within easy striking distance.

With that said, some sort of bounce early next week seems likely given the levels that we hit on Friday and severe oversold nature of the market in the short run. I suspect it will just be a bounce though. A low may be found when my model gives a BUY, like back in March, but until we see it, we're just guessing.

The setup is there for some sort of plunge next week that sets up a turn to the upside the following week on the FOMC, where Warsh may pooh pooh rate hikes this year, but we shall see.

The PBOC announced over the weekend that it added to its gold reserves again, and that too may be a reason to bounce on Monday given that the PBOC stepped up its buying to 10 tonnes. However, I don't think this news is a surprise at this point to the market. It's sort of expected that the PBOC will buy every month. The surprise would be if they didn't.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, BLDR ,and XHB. Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: I flattened out, selling GDXD and ZSL in the closing minutes and I sold my SLV 65, 64, 63 and 62 puts for 30x, 30x, 20x, and 10x. Needless to say those monster gains more than made up for some of the losses on puts that I have endured while waiting for this collapse to finally play out.