The S&Ps opened up a touch after NVDA beat the numbah overnight and ripped for about 7%. After rallying up to a gain of nearly a percent, the S&Ps faded in the afternoon but still went out with a gain of over half a percent.

The dollar began the day a little firmer but then faded to end flat. Yields were up a couple bps.

BTC rose over a percent, but MSTR launched 12 percent.

Commodities were mixed, although crude added a couple percent.

Gold slipped overnight and eventually dipped to a low of $4565 during the US session before recovering to trade up to as high as $4619 and then slipping to close back to $4600 for a gain of a third of a percent.

Silver initially rallied overnight but then faded to eventually hit a low down around $67.80 before then firming to go out up around $69 for a gain of 2 percent.

The GDX initially slipped to below the 5 dma and back to the low of the week before firming back up to go out with a gain of over a percent and back just over the 5 dma by pennies.

It was touch and go on the GDX recovering the 5 dma until about 15 min before the close, but given that it did recover it (silver closed over its 5 dma too), that makes yesterday a one-day head fake and leaves the bulls in charge going into tomorrow.

Warsh speaks at 10 AM, and we typically don't get an advance copy of these speeches. As for what he is going to say, I don't expect any bombs (dovish or hawkish). In fact, he may not say much of anything when it comes to monetary policy. How will the market read that? I came into today thinking that the market would probably buy the speech regardless of what Warsh said, but the lack of any fear ahead of it makes that a little more of a dicey outcome.

That's still the way I'm leaning, but given the likely binary nature of the reaction tomorrow, I didn't make a big bet ahead of it.

My gold model likely moved back to a Tier 1 SELL, but I don't have all my data in yet.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: I bought some SLV 61 puts in the afternoon and then sold them at the close for a tiny loss to leave me flat.

I was hoping to get long today if things dipped ahead of the speech, but given the way everything was chased after the open, it made it a little trickier. I still may do something tomorrow morning before the speech, but the risk is that we simply get a further correction if the reaction to Warsh isn't strong enough to push the GDX and the metals to a new high for the move. It has been one hell of a month after all, and people could be quick to take profits if prices reverse with just two days to go.

Stay flexible my friends...