The Chinese equity market rose a touch overnight. The offshore dollar/yuan rose a touch off the 200 dma. Gold in yuan popped over a percent to a new all-timer.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong rose over 2 percent. Japanese equities added a percent too. JGB yields were unch at 1.50%. The dol/yen rose a touch to a new high for the move since last Tuesday's low ahead of the BOJ meeting tonight, where the BOJ is expected to do nothing.

European equity markets were up nearly a percent this morning. German 10yr yields fell 2 bps to 2.81%. The eur/dol rose a touch to just shy of a new 6-month high. If the euro is going to come in and allow DXY to bounce, it better start tomorrow, or it's not going to happen.

Over in the US, the equity futures were off a touch ahead of the open. The dollar was a little weaker vs. other paper. Gold was up $30 for no particular reason, and yields were a little higher.

The S&Ps opened down a touch and immediately started sliding.

After hitting a low around mid-morning with a loss of a little over a percent, the S&Ps then went into a sideways chop for the rest of the day and would eventually go out near the lows of the day with a loss of just over a percent.

Volume picked up a little. Breadth was nearly 2 to 1 negative on the NYSE and nearly 2 to 1 negative on the NASDAQ. New highs edged out new lows on the NYSE (47 to 36), and new lows swamped new highs on the NASDAQ (156 to 59).

Stocks Bounced Again:

Stocks were mostly lower, and yesterday's failure at the 200 dma by the S&Ps may have set up a retest of the lows in the coming days. I'm not so sure about whether we're ready to break down to new lows yet though without a further bounce to set it up.

The 7 Pigs were notably down across the board, and NVDA fell 3 percent despite its seance that was held today.

The XHB homebuilding ETF slipped half a percent, and BLDR slipped a touch.

Positions: I left my shorts unchanged in SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, ARKK, XHB, and BLDR. I'm still looking to buy puts on the SPY, but I'd like for it to break the downtrend since the high before I do.

Commodities Were Mixed:

Brent crude fell a percent. Natural gas bounced a percent. The oil stocks were mostly higher, with the oil and gas ETFs all adding less than a percent. The uranium equities were also higher, with the URNM picking up a touch.

Copper rose a percent to a new 10-month high. I would note that copper is actually outperforming gold YTD. What does that mean? My guess is it has to do with front-running tariffs, which has also been driving a lot of gold demand in 2025. If you think it's predicting economic strength, I have a bridge I will sell you, which is another reason why I believe this rally in gold (while admittedly fun) has dubious underpinnings until we start getting rate cuts from the Fed.

Unlike copper, other base metals were lower, with the DBB base metals ETF losing a touch. The copper stocks were higher again, with the COPX adding over a percent. The steel stocks were higher too, with the SLX picking a touch. The XME metals and mining ETF also added half a percent.

Palladium slipped a freckle, while platinum fell a touch.

Silver rose half a percent to a new 5-month high.

The SLV/GLD ratio fell a percent.

The CCI equal-weighted commodity index ETF (GCC) fell a touch and still looks to be potentially putting in a right shoulder of a H&S top. The energy-heavy DBC commodity ETF fell a touch. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (DJP) rose a freckle.

Gold Sprinted Higher Again:

Spot gold took off overnight for no reason that I could detect, and opened in the US up nearly $30 at $3027 before sprinting up to a high of $3037 on the equity open.

From that high, the metal then backed off to $3024 or so and the bounced back up to around $3036.

Shortly after noon, we then learned that the call between Trump and Putin had resulted in a limited ceasefire that would only apply to energy infrastructure and that further negotiations would be needed in order to widen the ceasefire.

As for the reaction to those headlines, gold backed off a few bucks and the USD/RUB, which was already down over 2 percent to a new 52-week low, weakened a freckle. Basically, everybody yawned.

After slipping to $3030 in the wake of the Trump/Putin call, the metal then bounced again into the equity close to go out closer to $3034 for a gain of over a percent to a new all-timer.

You will note in the chart above of spot gold that the metal did tag the top of its bull market channel since the rally began last spring. Can it blow through there and get go vertical? Maybe...

Gold Stocks Popped And Then Fizzled:

The GDX gapped up big on the open and quickly traded up to within a couple dimes of its 2020 high before then reversing with the metal. After reversing to nearly fill the opening gap around mid-morning, the GDX then bounced before slipping again in the afternoon to go out back near the lows of the day but still up over half a percent. Volume picked up to just above the 60 day average, and the GDX closed above the 5 dma once again, which leaves the bulls firmly in charge.

The GDX/GLD ratio fell half a percent.

The silver stocks were mostly higher inline with the gold names. The SIL fell half a percent. The SILJ rose a touch, and the GDXJ fell a hair.

Real yields were lower, while nominal yields were lower too. The yield curve flattened again per the 2/10 spread. The dollar was a little weaker vs. other paper but not appreciably so. As has been the case for some time, gold seemed to simply move on its own and made new all-timers in several foreign currencies in addition to in dollars.

Gold still looks "toppy" to me, especially with my model on a Trifecta SELL for a fourth straight session, but as I noted yesterday, neither gold nor GDX are showing any signs of weakness whatsoever yet.

As for the FOMC tomorrow, the only possibility I see for a surprise would be some sort of change in the "dot plot" to either add an additional rate cut to the current two cuts expected in 2025 in order to signal concern about the economy (which seems unlikely) or to subtract one from that total in order to signal inflationary concern about tariffs. As always, this dot plot nonsense is pretty meaningless in reality, but when a market is looking for an excuse to make a move, nonsense like this will often serve as that excuse.

As for PowPow's presser, he is going to straddle the fence again and indicate no hurry to ease unless the labor market takes a dive, which is more of the same.

Until gold and GDX move below the 5 dma, upside must be respected, and further gains could continue to negate my model's Trifecta SELL.

My gold model remained on a Trifecta SELL for a fourth day. Meaningful downside would be needed tomorrow in order to confirm the signal and mark a top.

Positions: Short April gold at $2994 and long GDXD, both of which are close to my pain threshold. I also added some GLD 276 puts for tomorrow on the open this morning as well as some GLD 274 puts for Friday.

The Dollar Was Weaker:

The dollar was a little weaker vs. other paper. The dollar index slipped a touch and back to its low for the year. If DXY is going to bounce before going lower, it better do it soon!

Bitcoin fell 2 percent. Again, BTC is back to trading like a liquidity widget, which means it's just a spoo (I remain long IBIT; I don't trade it). MSTR, COIN, RIOT and other BTC derivatives were all spanked.

Treasury Yields Were Little Changed:

Treasury yields fell 1 bp in the long end, which left the 10yr yield at 4.29%.

The 2/10 spread narrowed a little again. As the curve steepens after being inverted for an extended period of time, we typically start to see things go awry in the equity market ahead of a recession. That will bring on rate cuts eventually, which is what gold wants, but not yet.

Yields in the Fed sensitive 2yr fell 1 bp to 4.04%. Junk debt rolled back over, with the HYG losing a touch. LQD, which is the investment grade corp bond ETF, rose a touch.

To Sum Things Up:

If spoo bulls are hoping that PowPow bails them out with some dovish jibber jabber tomorrow, I think they're in for a disappointment. Whether the bottom is ready to fall out just yet remains to be seen though. Last week's lows should be watched closely.

REMAIN FLEXIBLE