Other than crude oil working a little higher along with the dollar, markets were fairly quiet overnight.

Then, shortly before the US equity open, Iran said it was no longer messaging with the US (who cares why). Crude jumped $5 on that, and the dollar ripped as well. Yields pushed higher, and the S&Ps slipped about half a percent. Gold tumbled $50.

The S&Ps opened down shortly after that with a half a percent loss and immediately began to rally. Around noon, Trump posted that the US and Iran were still talking and oh so close to a deal (it's the same BS every single day), and the S&Ps squirted up to a new high for the day and a new all-timer as oil backed off $3 from its highs and the dollar and yields came in a little.

From that high, the S&Ps would slip over the remaining couple hours to end off the highs but still up a quarter of a percent to a new all-timer. The VIX oddly ended up 5 percent too and just off its highs of the day.

Crude oil popped 5 percent, while the rest of the commodity complex was mixed.

The dollar firmed, with the DXY adding a touch, and yields rose a couple bps.

BTC tumbled 3 percent after MSTR sold a tiny amount of BTC to harvest a tax loss, which seems like a giant nonevent to me, but this slide did do some technical damage to BTC, which is now back on its uptrend since the Feb low. MSTR was spanked for 6 percent.

Gold tumbled back to $4500 overnight for a loss of about a percent and then collapsed to $4450 as crude popped on the news that Iran and the US were no longer talking. Liek everything else, gold then firmed off that low and eventually went out back up near $4484 for a loss of over a percent.

Silver held up better overnight but then tanked with gold on the Iran headlines and printed as low as just under $74 before rebounding to go out back up around $75 for a loss of a percent.

The GDX gapped down and slumped to below the 200 dma once again but then recovered to go out back up near the better levels of the day with a loss of over 3 percent.That close also put the GDX back below the 5 dma again, which statistically speaking puts the bears in charge.

All this intraday motion on headlines from Iran and Trump are absolutely exhausting. No matter what these headlines say and the intraday noise in the markets on the news, the bottom line for me is that crude oil is about to jet to new highs. Plug in what you think will be the consequences of that move, and that's how you want to be positioned.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. I added SLV 63 puts for Wed for 9 cents.