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August 18, 2026
 
     
  Metals Curiously Reverse  
     
 

The S&Ps opened down about half a percent and proceeded to slowly chop sideways to down for the rest of the session to essentially go out on the lows with a loss of just over half a percent. Once again it was the chips that endured most of the damage, where the SOX fell 5 percent and hit the QQQ for almost 2 percent.

The dollar was mixed, with the DXY ending up a freckle. Yield fell a bp or two.

Commodities were mostly lower, except for crude oil, which rose a freckle. Platinum and palladium were hit particularly hard and both fell over 3 percent.

BTC rose half a percent but continues to basically kill time and go nowhere.

Gold initially tried to break out to a new high for the move overnight but failed and then slumped back to below $4400. Once the US session began, the yellow metal was thumped again and eventually collapsed to as low as $4337 and went out on that low for a loss of nearly 2 percent.

Silver similarly failed to break out overnight and then collapsed and slumped over 3.5 percent to $63.50.

The GDX opened down near yesterday's low and then tumbled to below the 5 dma and eventually tested the 10 dma before going out just above it with a loss of over 3 percent.

I'm not really sure what happened today to the metals, because there wasn't any particular catalyst to explain how poorly they traded. Gold, silver, and GDX all closed back below the 5 dma once again too, and while this may be another one-day head fake, I'm a little concerned that what I thought was a bear market rally with further to go may have already ended.

When ever things are teed up for upside, like they were today after yesterday's rally, and instead aggressive downside appears, it's normally not good.

Now, as long as the bulls show up to play tomorrow and kick off a renewed rally to recover the 5 dma, then all is well. If they don't though, it may be time to get worried about a resumption of downside.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: I flattened out in AGQ and GDXU.

 
     
     
 
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