Stocks went nowhere again today for the most part, as we appear to be on hold for the FOMC. With that said, homebuilding trash continued to slide as yields in the long end continue to rise. XHB fell a percent, and BLDR fell over 2 percent.

Positions: Short SPY, MDY, IWM, QQQ, XHB, and BLDR.

Commodities were mostly higher. Platinum was notably firm and rose nearly 3 percent and may be trying to break out to a new high, which would fit with the new high we saw in silver today.

Gold only firmed a touch and remains below last week's high, while silver ripped for over 4 percent and nearly tagged the spot $61 level, which is the measured move target for its recent compression triangle (and where I had thought it might pop to on Friday).

GDX also firmed and rose over 3 percent to put it back over the 5 dma, which statistically puts the bulls back in charge unless it's a one-day head fake.

Obviously all eyes are now on tomorrow's reaction to the FOMC, where the Fed will no doubt ease 25 bps. The only question mark is the forward guidance, which I suspect is going to be on the hawkish side with an indication that the Fed will be on hold until we get more data.

This is a tricky spot. While on the one hand, winners tend to rip during the month of December, and precious metals and miners and miners have obviously been big winners in 2025. A meltup into year-end was my base case coming into the month.

However, last week's failures in both gold and GDX despite silver ripping and creating a divergence was a red flag. Once again today, silver ripped but gold and GDX failed to join the party with new highs for the month, let alone new all-timers. But, they could still surge and play catch-up to silver in theory.

That's why this a tricky spot.

If the dollar resumes its collapse in the wake of the FOMC tomorrow, it will likely head for a toilet flush into year-end, which will support more gains in the metals into year-end.

So again, tomorrow's reaction seems pretty important. I still haven't made up my mind as to how I am going to position tomorrow, but at this point I can make a case for either scenario. I'm hoping for more clues in tomorrow's pre-FOMC action.

My gold model hasn't updated yet (check back later).

Positions: None

The dollar was a little firmer, with the DXY adding a touch. Like with the metals, I could see the DXY moving sharply in either direction in the wake of the FOMC tomorrow, which will set the stage for an even bigger move into year-end.

IBIT rose over 2 percent as BTC continues to slowly climb off its November low.

Positions: Long IBIT (I don't trade this one).

Yields rose, as the curve continues to steepen.