Before the open, we got the PCE data and learned that inflation had come in a little hot last month, which was not news to anyone. This PCE data is never a surprise given all the inflation data we get before. It's also a month old. As for the reaction, it was basically a yawn as expected. The S&Ps rose a touch. The dollar slipped. Gold and silver both popped, while yields fell a hair.
The S&Ps opened higher on MU hype and immediately began to slide. After driving down into slightly negative territory with the NASDAQ in the lead, the S&Ps caught a bounce back up into barely positive territory, which was followed by a slide back to the unchanged mark, where the S&Ps would flop and chop for the remainder of the session to eventually go out near the middle of the day's range with a gain of just a hair.
The dollar was a little weaker for a change, with the DXY losing a touch. The dol/yen, however, continues to hover near its multiyear high. If the BOJ doesn't whack it soon, specs may go for a breakout. Yields were little changed.
BTC tumbled a percent to a new 52-week low, and MSTR tanked 9 percent to a new 52-week low. Ugly.
Commodities bounced across the board including crude oil, which added a third of a percent for a change. Copper and platinum both bounced a percent.
Gold chopped around on either side of the unchanged mark between $4000 and $3980 overnight and then rallied up to as high as $4040 in the wake of the PCE yawn. From that high, the metal would then slip a little to go out off the highs at $4027 but still up a percent.
Silver similarly chopped around on either side of the unchanged mark and then popped on the PCE yawn to as high as 59 before then sliding back to under 58 for the close go out with a gain of just over a percent.
The GDX opened near yesterday's high and then collapsed back into barely negative territory before then rebounding and fading again to go out off the highs but still up over a percent. Once again, the GDX closed below the 5 dma, which means the bears remain in charge and they will no doubt be gunning for the June low sometime between now and month-end next week.
Maybe we can get a further bounce tomorrow in the metals or maybe we can't? I don't have a firm opinion one way or the other, but I do suspect we have more business on the downside at this point before this slide is over. And given that the proximity to month-end, it's possible that we could see downside pressed sooner rather than later, especially if we end the week below the March lows where we are at present.
I also suspect the equity market is about to join the downside party as well. If you haven't seen the charts of AAPL and MSFT recently, you need to take a look. These megacaps that control the indexes are breaking down in a bad way, and that spells trouble for the entire market.
My gold model remained on a Tier 3 BUY for 5th session.
Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT and STRC.
Metals: I put GDXD out on the open, and I added some SLV 50 puts for tomorrow for 9 cents on the retest of the opening high.