Before the open, we learned that the government's guess at Q3 GDP came in stronger than the consensus and the PCE was basically inline but once again "inflationary." There was no real reaction to either data point.
The S&Ps opened down about a third of a percent and immediately slipped a little lower. Following a bounce into mid-morning, we rolled over again and slowly slipped back to the lows and eventually took them out in the early afternoon.
That flush created the low for the day, and a rally in the final hour and half appeared that would cut the day's loss in the S&Ps to just over a third of a percent or basically back to the open. The QQQ and SOX both fell over a percent, and after the close, we had several tech earnings blowups (INTC dropped 20 percent), which sent the S&Ps to new lows for the day during the runoff in the futures.
The dollar was weaker, with the DXY losing a touch, and the euro notably bounced in the wake of the ECB doing absolutely nothing. The BOJ meets tonight. BTC fell 3 percent.
Yields fell all across the curve but mostly in the short end, which steepened the curve a little. Note the H&S top in the 5s, 10s, and 30yr yields.
Commodities were mostly lower, except for crude, which rose over half a percent and looks to be poised to pop to a new high very soon (Trump says bombing to commence after next Tuesday's election). Platinum and palladium were both notably pounded to new lows for the move and lost 1 and 4 percent respectively.
Gold slipped overnight down to around $4020, and the metal would eventually slip a little lower during the US session to as low as $4006 (or about $30 from gold's low for the month) despite the dollar weakening. However, a rally in the afternoon would carry the metal off the lows and send it out back up around $4025, which was still a loss of over a percent.
Silver was once again much weaker than gold and slumped to a new low for the move overnight, which sent the silver/gold ratio to a new 52-week low. The white metal would eventually slip to a loss of nearly 4 percent before a bounce appeared in the afternoon to cut that loss to just over 3.6 percent.
The GDX opened down at yesterday's low and then slipped back to Tuesday's nadir before a bounce appeared into the close to lift things a little off the lows and sent the GDX out with a loss of over 3 percent. That slide also put the GDX back below the 5 dma, which gives the bears the upper hand once again. That's also the case for gold and silver too, not to mention platinum and palladium.
As I had feared, the same pattern once again played out where my model would move back to neutral during a weak bounce that only managed to get gold, silver, and GDX back to the roughly the 5 dma before selling appeared once again.
The question now is whether my model moved back to a Tier 3 BUY or not, but I don't have all my data in yet. My fear is that it didn't, and based on this month-long pattern, that could mean we are in for even more selling tomorrow into month-end. We shall see though.
My gold model hasn't updated yet, but if we are to get a month-end bounce tomorrow, then the pattern of late suggests it needs to move back to a Tier 3 BUY. My fear is that today's slide wasn't hard enough to move the primarily gold-related component to a BUY. (9:00 ET EDIT: my gold model remained at neutral as I had feared)
Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long BDLR, DBA, IBIT, STRC.
Metals: I sold my SLV 47 puts for 40 cents when it looked like we might get some sort of bounce. But when the bounce began to fall apart later in the day, I added some GDX 79 puts for tomorrow for 18 cents that will basically require the GDX to break to a new low for the move tomorrow in order to pay off.