The S&Ps opened up a touch, but as the chips then rolled over along with all things AI, the S&Ps began slowly sawing lower.

That saw lower would last for the rest of the morning, and we finally hit out low for the day around noon, which happened to coincide with Trump posting that the US would have to retaliate for Iran shooting down an Apache last night. Crude, which had been down 4 percent, popped a couple bucks on that too.

That news marked the low of the day in the S&Ps, and we proceeded to rally for the remainder of the session and eventually went out back up near the mid-point of the day's range with a loss of a third of a percent.

The dollar began the day lower but then firmed all day into a high around noon, which coincided with the low in the S&Ps, and after backing off a little, the DXY would go out virtually flat. Yields slipped a few bps.

BTC fell over 2 percent, while MSTR fell 8 percent. Neither took out last week's low, or at least not yet.

Commodities were mostly lower once again, with platinum once again leading to the downside with a 2 percent slide to a new low for the move. Crude oil also slipped over 2 percent on more "deal soon" chatter from the White House, although it did firm off its nadir on the Trump post about retaliation.

Gold hung around the unchanged mark overnight, and after a brief bounce in the wake of the US open on a headline about a potential "deal", the yellow metal then rolled over and began to saw its way lower until it eventually hit a low of $4240. Following a bounce up to $4273, the metal then slipped again to go out closer to $4259 for a loss of over a percent and a half.

Silver fared even worse and collapsed below its 200 dma to as low as $64.35. Following a bounce it would end back up around $65.35 for a loss of over 4 percent to a new closing low since the Jan peak. The March intraday spike low is down around $61, which I am betting will be breached before this slide is over. That doesn't mean we can't bounce first though.

The GDX opened up a touch and then collapsed with everything else to a new low for the move and hit its low with everything else around noon. From there, the GDX would rebound and cut its loss to just over a percent for the close. Nevertheless, that close was once again well below the 5 dma, and it was a new low for the move since the March 2nd high.

Tomorrow we'll get the CPI data, and as is always the case with this "data point," it's more about the reaction than the data, because nobody is going to be surprised if the headline number comes in with a 4-handle, even though that number itself is "bad" by definition. The "Fed may tighten later this year" is still the theme of the day, and a hot number tomorrow would obviously play into that narrative.

We also may get some military action overnight, but nobody seems to care much about that anymore?

So, while a bounce in the metals could certainly happen anytime, the risk is still to the downside as gold and silver slide towards those March spike lows and likely break them, just as the GDX has already done. Throw in an equity decline and an AI implosion chaser, and things get even more interesting.

Again, I think we have a shot at seeing a low in the metals and GDX this week, where next week's FOMC could be the catalyst for a turn to the upside and an end to the correction that has been going on since Jan 31. But until we see it, that's just guessing.

My gold model remains at neutral, but a few more solid down days and we could get the same buy signal that marked the March low.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA and IBIT. I was stopped out of my XHB and BLDR shorts for breakeven after both popped on a good existing home sales number of all things. That number is normally meaningless, so something more bullish may be going on rates that isn't apparent to the rest of us yet. I will be staying away from these two on the short side.

Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. Long SLV 57 puts for Friday, and I added some more of these this morning for 15 cents to bring my average down to 19 cents. I also day traded some SLV 59 puts for tomorrow for 7x and GLD 370 puts for Friday for 2x.