The S&Ps opened down a touch and slipped a little lower to their lows of the day around mid-morning. Then, shortly before noon it hit the wires that there was possibly a staged deal brewing between the US and Iran. The dollar, crude, and yields (mostly in the short end) all slumped on that headline, while the S&Ps and metals all popped.

After rebounding back up into barely positive territory, however, the rally in the S&Ps flamed out, and we fell back to the unchanged mark, where we would chop sideways for the rest of the day to go out with a loss of a freckle.

The dollar was mostly a little firmer and recovered most of its deal losses from its highs, with the DXY ending up a touch to another new high for the week. BTC fell a touch.

Yields surged to new highs once again, but the curve interestingly steepened for a second straight session.

Commodities were mixed and little changed for the most part, except for crude, which rose 2 percent after having come in from even higher levels on the back of the deal headlines.

Gold and silver began the day lower again and then rebounded somewhat on the deal headlines as yields and the dollar came in. Both metals would end off their lows but still with losses of a third of a percent and a percent respectively.

The GDX gapped down and tested its 200 dma before rebounding on the deal headlines to go out back up near the highs of the day to create a "hammer" but still with a loss of over a percent.

Both the metals and GDX closed below their 5 dma for a second straight session, which could point the bears getting the statistical upper hand once again if that moving average is not recovered by tomorrow's close. I'm still betting that this decline over the past two days is a head fake, but that's what we need to see in order to confirm it.

On the positive side, the yield curve has begun to steepen over the past 2 days, which is typically bullish for the metals unlike the flattening that we've been seeing since late August, which was when the metals last peaked by no coincidence.

Obviously the setup is there for oil to continue to decline tomorrow on some sort of deal BS, which will probably take the pressure off the Fed to tighten and allow the curve to continue to steepen as well as for the dollar to weaken. That should be a bullish cocktail for the metals.

My gold model remained on a Tier 3 BUY for a second session.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, and IBIT.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNNY. Long SLV 61 and 62 calls for tomorrow, and I added the SLV 59 calls for tomorrow for 9 cents today.