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May 15, 2026
 
     
  Everything Gets Taken To The Woodshed  
     
 

Yields soared globally overnight for no particular reason, and that had everything under pressure except for oil and the dollar.

The S&Ps opened down about a percent and spent the rest of the day trying to recover. When that recovery attempt eventually ran out of steam in the afternoon, the S&Ps collapsed into the close to go out on the very worst levels of the session with a loss of over a percent.

As I alluded to above, yields surged, with the 10yr yield popping 11 bps to a new high for the move. The curve steepened slightly.

The dollar was firmer across the board, with the DXY popping half a percent to a new high for the week. DXY's chart looks a lot like XOM since the late March high, with both surging back to the neckline of an apparent double bottom. Coincidence?

Crude oil jumped over 3 percent and continues to slowly ratchet back to the highs. Meanwhile, other commodities were spanked. Copper fell over 4 percent. Platinum also fell over 4 percent, etc.

BTC slipped 3 percent, and MSTR tumbled 5 percent.

Gold collapsed overnight and printed a low of $4512 in the US before spending the rest of the day trying to bounce but never really doing much and going out near the lows at $4540 for a loss of over 2 percent.

Silver was spanked even harder overnight and when on the lows with a loss of nearly 9 percent.

The GDX gapped down and filled the early May gap to go out on the lows with a loss of 7 percent.

I'm obviously feeling like a fool for having been concerned about a reversal precisely like this and then being duped into thinking we might get one more pop before the hammer came down. Obviously, the hammer came down earlier than I thought, but that doesn't change the meaning of the hammer.

As yields rise and oil and the dollar rise, it's going to pressure all asset prices, and foreign central banks are likely to continue to sell gold to shore up their currencies. Oil producers may sell assets in general to make up for lost revenues as other nations sell assets to fund oil purchases.

That means everything is going lower again. It was only the timing that was in doubt and we now seem to have answered that question given today's beating.

I'd expect some sort of bounce in the metals early next week, but that's probably a chance to make sales.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: My equity shorts are unchanged, and I remain long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: I flattened out after buying ill-timed longs in silver and GDX for trades ("bad" trades they turned out to be).

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

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