The S&Ps were initially flat ahead of the open this morning, and then the Treasury announced that it would be doubling the size of its buyback program in the long end of the curve. A lot of people were posting today on X that this was "QE." It's not. Basically, this is a shift in duration of US debt from long-term to short-term (kinda dumb if you ask me) in order to try and manhandle long-term rates lower. New cash isn't being created like with QE. Will it work? I have my doubts, but we shall see.

As for the initial reaction, the S&Ps popped about half a percent. The dollar slumped. Yields fell but especially in the long end, where the 30yr fell 10 bps and the 10yr fell 7 bps. Gold popped about $140.

The S&Ps opened up about a third of a percent and initially rallied to a gain of about half a percent before rolling over and eventually tumbling to go out on the worst levels of the day but still up just a touch. The SOX notably fell over 2 percent, as the chips continue to be pounded.

The dollar was down across the board, with the DXY falling nearly a percent.

Yields fell, mostly in the long end, which flattened the curve.

BTC jumped 6 percent and closed over its 200 dma for the first time since November of 2025.

Commodities were higher across the board. Crude was the only outlier and basically flat, while platinum jumped 6 percent and finally took out its high for the month. Copper rose a percent.

Gold exploded on the Treasury news and popped to an initial high of $4500 as the dollar and yields fell. After backing off to just under $4480, the metal surged again into the close to go out up around $4520 for a gain of 4 percent, which also took it to a new high for the move and just over its 200 dma.

Silver similarly popped on the news but not as muchh, although it did eventually join gold in taking out its high for the month in the afternoon to go out on the highs with a gain of over 4 percent to a new high for the move and just shy of $67.

The GDX gapped up huge on the open, and after a mid-day dip, it rallied into the close to go out on the best levels of the day with a gain of over 9 percent.

As I said yesterday, as long as the metals and GDX rallied and retook the 5 dma today, everything was fine as far as the rally continuing. What I obviously had no clue about was that the Treasury would make this announcement to make that rally happen.

With things now having run quite a long way (and will have run even further if this continues tomorrow like I expect) and the fact that what the Treasury announced isn't really "money printing," we're probably getting close to some sort of peak in the rally, where it's either going to fail and re-enter the bear, or its going to have a pullback of 2 or 3 weeks.

Clearly, the Treasury is concerned, and that may be a signal that more emergency action will eventually come, which will have to ultimately be from the Fed in the form of YCC. But we don't have that emergency Fed action YET.

My bet is we can see this surge continue into tomorrow and potentially peak on Friday, where some sort of pullback/consolidation is likely to begin.

My gold model remained at neutral, but it's a day or two of rallying away from triggering a Tier 1 SELL, which has typically been good for at least a correction during rallies.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: I got shaken out of my AGQ and GDXU yesterday, but that's the breaks. I bought some SLV 63 calls for Friday for 14 cents.