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September 18, 2026
 
     
  Quarterly Expiration Is A Yawn  
     
 

The S&Ps opened down a touch and drifted a little lower before eventually firming back up again in the afternoon to go out back up at the better levels of the day but still down just a hair. To call it an uneventful day would be an understatement.

The dollar began the day firmer after the BOJ hiked rates overnight but then didn't signal much beyond that, which sent the yen lower. By the close, however, the dollar had softened, with the DXY ending down a hair.

BTC jumped 6 percent and back to just shy of the September high.

Yields rose, with the 10yr moving back to 5%, and the 2yr yield making a new 52-week high at 4.76%. The curve flattened once again.

Commodities were mostly higher, except for crude, which slipped a percent. Diesel notably hit a new all-timer, which means virtually everything is going to rise in price if it needs to be shipped.

Gold and silver were higher, with silver outperforming once again. Both metals would finish off their highs but with gains of nearly a percent and nearly 2 percent respectively.

The GDX opened flat and slipped back to tag the 5 dma before firming back to the mid-levels of the day to end with a loss of half a percent. The GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ all ended with gains of half a percent or less. The large cap gold names seemed to be the heaviest and were responsible for the GDX weakness. My guess is it had something to do with the big quarterly option expiration today.

Gold, silver, and the GDX all ended above the 5 dma once again today, so the bulls remain firmly in charge. Gold and silver also ended the week above their near-term downtrend lines, which could set the stage for upside acceleration next week.

My gold model moved back to neutral after 4 straight days on a Tier 3 BUY as the metals and GDX were bottoming.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, and IBIT.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, SHNY. I also bought some SLV 62 calls for Monday.

 
     
     
 
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