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November 2, 2026
 
     
  Oil Tanks On More Deal Chatter As AI Sellers Return  
     
 

The S&Ps opened up about a percent after crude tumbled over 5 percent on chatter about a "deal" (again). The dollar was also weaker, and yields were lower. Gold and silver were higher.

After squirting up another half a percent or so in the S&Ps, we had a flame out as the chips began to slide and eventually dragged the QQQ in negative territory as well.

The remainder of the session was a nonstop slide that sent the S&Ps out on the worst levels of the day with a loss of half a percent. The QQQ would lose over a percent, and the SOX lost over 3 percent.

The dollar was weaker, but much of those oil-inspired losses were reversed by the close as equities sold off. The DXY ended down a touch. BTC was flat.

Yields were a little lower by a couple bps.

Commodities were mixed, with the crude being the big loser on the back of hopes for a "deal" between Iran and the US. Crude slumped 8 percent, which is a sizeable move.

Gold traded up overnight and eventually popped to as high as $3970 before backing off to $3944 for a gain of over a percent and a half.

Silver also traded up overnight and squirted up to as high as nearly $51.50 before backing off to $50.60 for a gain of over 2 percent.

The GDX gapped up on the open and traded up to just shy of the 5 dma, where it then reversed and then chopped sideways all day to go out back at roughly where it had opened with a gain of over 2.6 percent.

Gold, silver, and GDX all closed below the 5 dma once again, so the bears remain in charge. With that said, my model likely remained at a Tier 3 BUY once again today, and per the pattern of the past 30 days, we would expect to see a rebound to at least the 5 dma before another potential selloff hits. And there is always the possibility that the pattern breaks and the metals and miners recover that 5 dma and keep moving higher too.

I was impressed by the rebound today in the metals and miners, but we definitely need to see more before getting excited about anything more than an oversold bounce.

Obviously, if we get the TACO of all TACOs overnight ahead of the election tomorrow and unicorns and rainbows fly out of Trump's butt toward's Iran, one could imagine a big upside move in the metals, but that's not something I want to count on just yet.

I don't have all my data in yet, but I'm pretty certain that my model remained on a Tier 3 BUY.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, STRC, and BLDR. Note BLDR popped another 5 percent today to a new high for the move and closed above its 200 dma.

Metals: I bought some SLV 47 calls for 28 cents for Wed's expir.

 
     
     
 
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