The S&Ps opened up about a percent, and after a brief slide into barely positive territory that was followed by an upside spike, we slipped again into the close to go out roughly whee we had begun the day with a gain of just under a percent. Nevertheless, we still ended with an "inside day," which suggests indecision as to the next move.

The dollar was firmer, with the DXY breaking out to the upside to a new 52-week high, although I would be wary of a potential bull trap here if the DXY reverses back below 100 next week. Yields were lower, but mostly in the long end as the curve continues to flatten.

BTC slumped 2 percent, and MSTR slumped over 3 percent to within striking distance of a new 52-week low.

Commodities were mostly lower except for crude oil, which interestingly spiked below its 200 dma on the signing of the "deal to make a deal" MOU and then reversed to end higher by a percent. Smells like a low. The DJP (BBerg commodity index ETF) also interestingly became the most oversold on an RSI basis since its April 2025 low.

Gold slipped a percent to $4209, while silver slipped 3 percent to under $66. Interestingly, neither metal is "going down well" after reversing on the FOMC (more on that below).

The GDX opened higher and initially tried to rally before reversing and slumping into Monday's gap. After not quite filling the gap, the GDX then rebounded around noon and spent the rest of the day climbing to end off the lows but still down over 2 percent. Like the metals, the GDX has not "gone down well" since the reversal on the FOMC. In fact, it has gone down less well than the metals.

So, why might the metals and miners not be going down well? My suspicion is that the dollar is going to reverse, and that we may actually see crude oil and other commodities all rally together along with gold and silver from here, as it dawns on people that this BS deal isn't going to solve the supply problem in crude. Likewise, the Fed isn't really going to get "tough" on inflation in reality either.

If that premise is correct, what we should see early next week (assuming we haven't already) is that the metals put in higher lows relative to the prior week's low. The pullback in the GDX has even been more shallow than the one in the metals, which I suspect is also hinting at these higher lows occurring in the metals.

All of that is guesswork until we see it happen, but after being short and finding it "difficult" to make money over the past few days despite seeing downside, being short doesn't "feel right" anymore. Consequently, as you will see below, I've flipped to long.

If gold and silver can reverse to the upside early next week and take out this week's highs, it should develop into a fairly aggressive move. The same goes for the GDX too, which is in an even better technical position to form a higher low and potentially surge above this week's high to form an inverted H&S bottom.

My gold model triggered a Tier 3 BUY, which we last saw for 3 days on 6/9-6/11 and marked the early June low. Prior to that, we saw it for 3 days on 3/20-3/24 and then again on 3/26 to mark the March low. This is another reason that I believe odds are good that we're going to see some sort of attempt at upside early next week.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC, and DBA.

Metals: I sold all my SLV and GDX puts on Thursday for various percentage gains and sold GDXD and ZSL. I then flipped to long GDXU and AGQ in the last hour along with buying GDX 90 calls for next Friday, SLV 62 calls for Monday and 63 calls for Wed, as well as GLD 405 calls for Wed. I may be a day early in doing this, but if that's the case, then I will likely add to longs and calls on Monday.