I'm not even going to mention the PPI, because it doesn't matter....

The metals and miners opened higher out of the gate this morning on the back of more signals that the US was close to taking military action against Iran (pizza sales around the Pentagon are spiking for one thing). Once again silver was was on fire relative to gold. Crude oil was also up a couple bucks, as was the dollar once again.

Initially, we saw reversals in gold and GDX and less of a pullback in silver.

Around mid-day, it then hit the tape that sources in Europe said US military action was imminent, and Polymarket odds of a US strike by Friday spiked to over 70% briefly before collapsing back into the high 30s, where it was this morning.

As the final hour rolled around, Trump then posted on social media that he was told that the killings and executions in Iran had stopped (i.e. - I'm not going to bomb them yet). Crude oil collapsed over $3. The metals, however, barely came in. GDX ended well off its highs but did avoid and outside day reversal by closing above yesterday's low.

We seem to be on Iran watch now.

The metals, especially silver, continue to go parabolic, and HeeHaw talks about them every 10 minutes. I'm not sure where this ends, but it's a good bet that it's going to end badly for a lot of people. I'd be very careful about being long or short unless you do it with options at this point.

My gold model remained at a Tier 1 SELL for a second day.