The S&Ps opened flat and slipped a little until headlines hit that there was yet another new "deal" between Iran and the US that only needed to be signed off on by Trump (Iran later said that its Supreme Leader also needed to sign off). As usual, the knee jerk reaction was to gun the S&Ps by about half a percent. The dollar slumped. Crude dumped $3 but then interestingly rebounded, and the metals popped.

After that initial burn to the upside, the S&Ps slipped into a sideways chop for the rest of the session and eventually went out on the highs with a gain of just over half a percent to another new all-timer.

The dollar slipped, with the DXY losing a touch. Yields also came in a couple bps as well.

BTC fell over 2 percent and continues to slip.

Commodities began the day lower but then broadly bounced on the "deal" headlines. Brent crude only ended down about half a percent, and if we are to believe comments by Neil Chapman, SVP of Exxon, today, inventories are now hitting such low levels that a "deal" doesn't really matter, which is what I've been saying for weeks. However, he obviously knows much more than me.

Gold pierced its 200 dma (both in terms of spot and Aug gold) and hit a low of $4366 before bouncing and then catching a bid on the "deal" headlines as the dollar came in. After rebounding to the 5 dma and hitting high of $4515, the metal then backed off a little to go out near the highs as $4496 for a gain of over a percent.

Silver similarly dipped overnight to under $72 but then rebounded on the "deal" back up to the 5 dma before backing off a little to end near the highs with a gain of over a percent.

The GDX dipped down to a new low for the month and then rebounded on the "deal" to also go out just off its highs but once again above the 5 dma for a gain of 2 percent. Time will tell if this is just another one-day head fake above the 5 dma or an indication of another trend change that will set up another bounce like in April and March?

Like all of the prior "deal" announcements, I suspect this one is a fade when it comes to the metals, because as I alluded to above, a deal (even if this BS is going to be signed finally) doesn't change where crude oil is going. The only question is "when." And for the moment, the market continues to assume that the Fed and other central banks will react to the coming inflation with tighter monetary policy. I have my doubts about that, but that's the market's view for the time being, which is why every bounce in gold continues to be sold.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM.

Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. Long SLV 64 and 63 puts for tomorrow, and I added the 66 puts today after the bounce in silver for 14 cents.