The PPI came in "cool" as expected, and the initial reaction was a small pop in the S&Ps. The dollar slipped. Yields fell, and gold and silver popped a little.

The S&Ps opened up a touch and initially surged about a percent to a new all-timer and then promptly collapsed back to near the open, where another rally began.

This time the rally stuck, and the S&Ps proceeded to grind their way higher for the rest of the session to go out shy of the earlier highs but still up nearly three quarters of a percent to a new all-timer.

The dollar initially weakened on the cool PPI data and further decline in the odds of a rate hike in September, but by the close, the dollar had firmed back up, with the DXY ending flat.

Yields fell on the cool PPI, with the curve steepening slightly once again thanks to a greater decline in the short end of the curve.

BTC was a snoozer once again and ended virtually unchanged.

Commodities were mixed. Crude fell 2 percent on more chatter about a deal. Copper slipped a touch, and platinum was hit for 2 percent after yesterday's failed breakout attempt.

Gold slipped overnight and briefly popped back over $4400 on the PPI. But as the dollar firmed back up, the metal slipped and would eventually tumble to a low of $4350, which is also roughly where it closed with a loss of over a percent.

Silver similarly slipped overnight, and after a brief PPI-related bounce, it faded to end back near the overnight lows with a loss of over a percent.

The GDX gapped down on the open and tested the 200 dma before firming a little off that low to end with a loss of 3 percent. That close, while above the 200 dma, put the GDX below the 5 dma for the first time in two weeks, which could indicate a change in trend favoring the bears. However, I suspect it's a one-day head fake. We'll know more tomorrow.

Today's decline in the metals puts them back near the lows of the week that were registered on Monday and completes what may be a week-long bullish flag pattern. If so, then the rally should resume tomorrow and push through resistance at 4450 and 67.

Today's action once again highlights how the data and the ensuing reduced odds of a rate hike have nothing to do with the rally that began in the metals. It's also another strong hint that this is probably just a bear market rally that is more about positioning and relieving oversold conditions rather than a more fundamental surge. But again, I'm trying to remain open to the idea that I'm wrong.

In the meantime, I think we're due another surge to the upside within the next few days that may bring on a Tier 1 SELL from my model, and then we can see what the potential pullback looks like.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, IWM, and MDY. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: Long GDXU and AGQ, which I doubled today. Long SLV 62, 61, and 60 calls, which I bought today for an average of 4, 5, and 8 cents respectively.