The S&Ps opened flat, and chopped around until the JOLTs data hit the tape. This two month old data set was a little light of the consensus, and the reaction in the S&Ps was a kneejerk down, and we saw a slight softening in yields as the dollar as well. The metals also bounced a little.

From there, the S&Ps flopped and chopped on the lows for the rest of the morning and the early afternoon until headlines from the NY Fed's Williams hit the tape, where he indicated that he only saw one more rate hike in 2026 and saw no need to move quickly. The translation was that a hike in October was unlikely, and the odds of a rate hike in the fed funds market as well as Polymarket immediately collapsed to about 50/50 and have moved even lower after the close.

The S&Ps popped a little on that, but the bigger move was in the dollar and yields in the short end, which both tanked. The metals responded by popping to new highs for the day.

Shortly after that, WTI took out its prior low of 93 on headlines about a "deal," and the S&Ps firmed a little more into the close to go out back at the mid-levels of the day with a loss of just a touch.

I would note that while the S&Ps and QQQ are barely off their highs, the IWM and MDY, which don't have AI crap in them and better reflect the real US economy, are both down near their respective 200 dma's. That's another reason to believe that Friday's jobs number could be a downside surprise too.

The dollar was mixed but managed to add a touch per the DXY after reversing from even higher levels on Williams' remarks. BTC rose a touch.

Yields collapsed in the short end of the curve on Williams' remarks, while the 10yr ended unchanged. The result was that the 2/10 spread soared again for a 5th straight session, as the yield curve continues to steepen, which is not the narrative that metals bears are peddling about rate hikes and a lack of liquidity.

Commodities were mostly higher, although crude dumped 3 percent to a new low for the move since the recent peak and followed the oil equities, which also broke down from H&S tops on the charts on the open this morning even before crude tumbled on more deal chatter (I still smell Tex-Mex). XOP and XLE have the prettiest H&S tops on them for those who are interested.

Gold and silver chopped sideways overnight and continued to do so during the US session until they eventually popped on Williams' comments to close up over a percent and just shy of a percent respectively.

The GDX also popped on Williams' comments after drifting down near yesterday's lows in the AM. For the close, the GDX finished on the highs to end with a gain of over a percent and just shy of yesterday's gap.

The metals and GDX all closed below the 5 dma once again today, so the bears are technically still in control, but I'm still betting that yesterday's thumping was a "first way, wrong way" break that is going to reverse, and we got some evidence of that early reversal today. Now we just need to see the 5 dma retaken and for price to move back above Monday's highs to confirm a low.

Based on the lack of any big decline in open interest yesterday as well as the chatter I've seen on X, a lot of shorts have piled in over the past two days believing the metals to have "broken down." If this is the head fake I believe it is, those shorts will now provide fuel for a swift upside reversal that will eventually translate to taking out the August highs. Before we put the cart before the horse though, let's see if we get a quarter-end pop back to the upside tomorrow to reverse Monday's slide.

In other supportive news, all signs continue to point to some sort of BS deal between the US and Iran (Tex-Mex being served), and I suspect we'll get news on it in the next few days. Throw in Williams' remarks, which were clearly tossed in to try and bring down yields for quarter-end, and we have the makings of a good ole fashioned quarter-end rig job. But in this case, we're long the rig, so fine with me.

My gold model remained on a Tier 3 BUY for a second day.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC, and DBA.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNNY. Long SLV 57 and 58 calls for tomorrow, and I added the 56 calls today.