The S&Ps opened down a touch and then slumped to a loss of over half a percent as crude oil rallied to a new high for the move and the 10yr yield popped over 5%.

The S&Ps then spent the remainder of the session flopping and chopping on the lows to go out just off the lower levels of the day with a loss of half a percent.

The dollar was firmer, with the DXY adding a touch to just shy of yesterday's high for the week.

BTC dumped 4 percent and broke down from a little H&S top on the charts after the Clarity Act failed to pass a procedural hurdle in the Senate.

Yields rose all over the world once again and throughout the US yield curve, with the 10yr ending just over 5%.

Commodities were mostly higher, although not by much except in the case of crude, which popped another 4 percent to a new high for the move since the low. Obviously Iran was as anxious for a deal as Trump claimed yesterday (again).

Gold and silver weakened overnight but then bounced for no particular reason that I could detect, with silver outperforming. Both metals would end off their highs with gains of a third of a percent and over a percent respectively.

The GDX slipped back to yesterday's lows but then rebounded to end off the lows bu still down an eyelash. The GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ would all end lower by half a percent or so.

The metals and miners all remain below their respective 5 dma's, so the bears remain statistically in charge.

I'm seeing a lot of hope that once the Fed hikes 25 bps tomorrow that the metals and miners will explode on hopes for "one and done." However, I don't believe we will get a clear signal from Warsh one way or the other when it comes to future hikes. As he has indicated, he doesn't want to telegraph action, and the dot plot is likely to show at least one more hike in 2026 I suspect based on what the other Fed yoyos have said.

Thus, there may be some disappointment associated with the FOMC. Likewise, crude oil and bond yields matter more than rate hikes, and both appear to be poised to move higher again tomorrow.

Should we get a puke in the metals and miners to create a higher low tomorrow, I'd be inclined to cover shorts and potentially put on some starter longs. But again, I think you need a "puke" in order to set that up.

If I'm wrong about that and the selling has already dried up rather painlessly, then it should be pretty obvious by the action (i.e. - we probably launch right out of the gate). However, that's not the way I am leaning at the moment.

My gold model produced a Tier 3 BUY yesterday once some late data came in, and based on the early data, it may have moved back to neutral today. I will post the results in the tomorrow' Morning Note for subscribers. Typically, we've needed to see several days of a Tier 3 BUY in 2026 in order to mark a low and the beginning of a rally.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC, and DBA.

Metals: long SLV 55 puts for tomorrow, and I added some more today for a nickel to bring my average down to around 10 cents.