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August 5, 2026
 
     
  Gold Rips  
     
 

The S&Ps gapped up to another new all-timer and then immediately began to slide. Shortly after the open we learned that the Services ISM came in a little soft, and the employment component importantly fell below 50 to the lowest level since last August. ADP was also a little softer before the open too.

There was no real reaction to the data though (although the odds of rate hike in Sep did drop), and the S&Ps hit their low for the morning shortly before noon with a loss of just a touch, where a bounce began.

The bounce didn't get far though, and after chopping sideways near the lows for the most of the afternoon, a closing selloff hit to take us out back on the lows of the day with a loss of just a touch.

The QQQ and SOX both fell a percent or more and have once again put in failing rallies within their already established downtrends.

The dollar was a little weaker, with the DXY losing a touch. Yields also dropped a smidge.

BTC rose a percent and may still be working on that inverted H&S bottom.

Commodities were mixed, and crude stabilized around the unchanged mark despite more chatter about a "deal" from the white house. Yesterday's big move in the metals, platinum, also reversed its overnight gains to end down a touch. Copper, however, rose 2 percent to a new all-timer.

Gold ripped overnight and continued to rip during the US session to eventually print as high as $4267 before going out at $4247 for a gain of over 4 percent. That gain also took out the July high, which has created a solid tradeable bottom in my view. Notice I said, "tradeable" though.

Silver similarly ripped all night and during the US session to close just off its highs at $62 for a gain of over 4 percent and back to just shy of its July high.

The GDX gapped up again for a second day and traded up slightly before then chopping sideways near the high and eventually going out just off the best levels of the day with a gain of over 7 percent and well above the July high.

This was the move I thought we were going to get last week in the metals and miners, and I'm kicking myself a little for letting last week's stumble spook me. With that said, we obviously have tradeable lows now in place, and I suspect this rally can last a few weeks at minimum. Whether it is THE bottom or not, remains to be seen, however. I'm not convinced yet given that we still haven't seen a low that coincides with stocks being hammered, which is typically where the cycle marks a low and Fed money printing begins to kick off a new upleg for gold. The good news is that tech seems to be leading the stock market lower, but that's also bad news in that it means a rally in gold will eventually fail.

For now though, dips should be bought, and if we get a check back to the 5 dma tomorrow in the metals or GDX for whatever reason ahead of Friday's jobs data, I'd like to buy it.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: Flat

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

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