The S&Ps opened flat and began trading higher after crude continued yesterday's slide. As we saw yesterday, this slide in crude also led to a decline in the dollar and oddly a rally in gold, silver, copper, platinum, etc.

After hitting a high around noon as WTI dumped to as low as $77 after a social media post from the Energy Secretary that the US had safely escorted a tanker through the Straits, the S&Ps then began to turn over as crude began to rally when the post was deleted and then denied by the White House. Gold and silver also oddly turned over at the same time, which seems to reinforce the idea that everything is one big liquidity trade at the moment.

Then with about two hours to go, it hit the tape that Iran was laying mines in the Straits, and the S&Ps collapsed back to the open. The dollar rallied, and gold and silver tumbled.

For the close, the S&Ps would go out on the lows with a loss of a touch, as it appears the rumors of the war's demise were greatly exaggerated.

Commodities were mostly higher, although they did reverse in most cases to be down or only up a touch. The commodity indices such as GCC and DJP were mostly higher by a percent.

BTC rose 2 percent, although MSTR backed off a touch.

The dollar was mostly firmer and rallied back on the news that Iran was mining the straits, which reaffirms that all that matters right now is oil. The DXY rose a touch and back to near its high for the move.

Yields rose again, although the curve did steepen a tiny bit.

Gold rallied overnight and squirted up to as high as nearly $5240 in the US as crude declined and stocks rallied. As crude recovered on the mining news and the spoos tumbled, crude similarly tanked and fell to as low as $5160 before rebounding back up to roughly $5200 for the equity close for a gain of a percent.

Silver similarly popped up to nearly $90 before then tumbling back to $87 as crude (also known as "asset kryptonite") rebounded. For the close, silver would go out back up near $88 for a gain of 2 percent.

The GDX gapped up on the open and traded up to the 20 dma before then reversing with everything else to go out on the lows and just barely above the 5 dma with a gain of a percent. It remains to be seen if this is one-day head fake within a downtrend above the 5 dma or whether the bulls have recovered control. Tomorrow's action will determine.

Everything continues to be all one trade. Crude up/ Crude down continues to be all that matters. I can't recall a time when the metals were this tied to the equity market, but perhaps that's another indication that the metals and miners remain in a correction?

I saw this interesting factoid today that I hadn't been aware of but knew intuitively. Every war since 1973 that has driven oil up by 50% in 3 months or less has resulted in a recession. Oil is up 70% since January. Let that one sink in.

My take continues to be that unless a miracle appears to pound crude down into the 60s and keeps it there, everything is going lower as the mob sells everything that is not nailed down.

Does anyone even care that we get the CPI tomorrow? I doubt it.

My gold model moved back to a Tier 1 SELL.

Positions: I left my equity shorts unchanged, and I continue to lug around IBIT.

Long GDXD and ZSL, and I increased both near the highs of the day (got lucky) before the dump on the bounce in oil. I also added SLV 75 and 74 puts for 13 and 15 cents respectively. I'm also long the 68 SLV puts for tomorrow, but I'm assuming these are donuts due to how far away they are at this point with only one day to go.