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November 6, 2025
 
     
  Tricky, Tricky...  
     
 

Stocks resumed their slide again today, and I left my equity shorts unchanged.

Commodities were generally weaker despite a weaker dollar, although gold and silver managed to tread water, with gold closing just over a dollar below the 5 dma and silver closing virtually on it. GDX gapped up out of the gate and tested the 50 dma before reversing and closing on the lows of the day. The GDX did recover the 5 dma though, so that puts things a little more up in the air with respect to the short term trend. It's a tricky spot at this point.

On the one hand, this recovery could indicate that the GDX is poised to make new highs for the week tomorrow and potentially rally up to fill its October gap next week before eventually failing and continuing the current correction. Or, it could also be a one-day head fake, and the slide resumes in GDX, gold, and silver tomorrow, leading to new lows next week. I suspect tomorrow's action will tell the tale. I added some 42.5 puts for a nickel and I increased GDXD by 50% to a max sized position. I'm also still long ZSL. My gold model remained at neutral.

The dollar backed off, with the DXY pulling back after yesterday's test of the 200 dma, which is pretty normal even if it is going to ultimately break out above that average.

Yields fell all across the curve.

I'm still of the opinion that we're going to see everything sell off (stocks, commodities, gold, silver, GDX) as the dollar rallies. Or at least that's my view until we see differently...

 
     
     
 
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