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April 14, 2026
 
     
  We Should Have Global Energy Shocks More Often  
     
 

The S&Ps opened higher on more chatter out of the White House about how close a deal was to happening and how more talks could happen as soon as tomorrow (insert wish list here). From there, the S&Ps pretty much rallied all day to go out with a gain of over a percent while crude slipped all day and ended down over 6 percent.

The dollar also weakened a touch and yields even slipped. BTC gained a couple percent too. What's not to love? We should clearly have the worst oil shock in history more often if this is how they all turn out? Where do I sign up?

Gold rallied over 2 percent and went out on the highs near $4841. Silver similarly went out on the highs just shy of $80 with a gain of over 5 percent. Both remain in potentially bearish flag/ rising wedge patterns, but another meltup tomorrow should bust those wide open to the upside.

The GDX rallied up to just above last week's highs and then reversed and chopped sideways for the rest of the day. Nevertheless, the GDX still ended with a gain of 2 percent and once again closed above the 5 dma, which leaves the bulls in charge.

The S&Ps have now been up 10 days in a row, which has to be some sort of record, but why not make it 11 tomorrow?

I still can't make any sense of what people are doing other than the obvious assumption that the war is over and the straits will open wide "tomorrow" as well as the assumption that the lack of supply in the chain until new supply can reach its destination just doesn't matter (make up reason and insert here).

The really odd thing is that we're still not seeing open interest in gold rise yet, which continues to suggest the rally is being driven primarily by spec short covering, for now anyway. Even the GLD ETF's holdings are below its 22 day moving average still.

I'm going to continue to just watch until I get a better handle on what exactly people are doing, other than chasing everything that went down when oil went up.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Long DBA and IBIT.

Flat gold, silver, and GDX.

 
     
     
 
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