The Chinese equity market rose nearly a percent overnight. The offshore dollar/yuan collapsed half a percent to a new low for the year, which is a pretty big move for the yuan. Gold in yuan rose a touch to just outside of its 5-month compression triangle.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong fell nearly a percent. Japanese equities rose nearly a percent. JGB yields fell 2 bps to 1.61%. The dol/yen fell a touch.

European equity markets hung around on either side of the unchanged mark this morning. German 10yr yields rose 1 bp to 2.70%. The eur/dol rose a third of a percent.

Over in the US, the equity futures were up a touch ahead of the open. The dollar was weaker vs. other colored paper. Gold was up 10 bucks and over $3400. Yields were a little higher.

Before the open, we learned that weekly jobless claims were once again a yawn, and there was no market reaction. We also got the government's second guess at Q2 GDP, which came in at 3.3 percent and was also a yawn.

The S&Ps opened up a touch and initially dipped back to the unchanged mark. From that low, we then began a slow grind higher that would last for the rest of the session.

For the close, the S&Ps would go out on the highs of the day with a gain of a third of a percent to a new all-timer.

Volume was light. Breadth was barely positive on NYSE and slightly positive on the NASDAQ. New highs swamped new lows on the NYSE (151 to 9), and new highs swamped new lows on the NASDAQ (261 to 62).

Stocks Were Mixed:

Stocks were mixed in no particular pattern. NVDA fell just under a percent despite winning at "beat the numbah" last night.

The XHB homebuilding ETF fell half a percent, and BLDR fell over a percent. Notice, despite the mob's widespread hope, mortgage rates aren't going down even though the Fed has given a nod to a rate cut in September.

Positions: I made no changes to my shorts in SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, ARKK, XHB, and BLDR.

Commodities Were Higher:

Brent crude rose over half a percent. Natural gas jumped 4 percent. The oil stocks were higher, with the oil and gas ETFs all picking up a percent. The uranium equities were higher, with the URNM picking up 2 percent to just shy of a new high for the year.

Copper rose over a percent. Other base metals were higher too, with the DBB base metals ETF adding half a percent. The copper stocks were higher, with the COPX adding a percent to a new 52-week high. The steel stocks were higher, with the SLX adding half a percent. The XME metals and mining ETF rose half a percent to a new multiyear high and appears to have negated a potential double top.

Palladium rose over a percent. Platinum rose a percent.

Silver rallied over a percent overnight as the dollar weakened and peaked shortly before the US open at just above last Friday's high. From there, the metal came in some but then found a low shortly before noon, which turned into a springboard into the equity close that sent it out back up at the overnight high with a gain of over a percent.

The silver/gold ratio rose half a percent and looks like it wants to make new highs in the coming days.

The CCI equal-weighted commodity index ETF (GCC) rose half a percent to a marginal new 52-week high. The energy-heavy DBC commodity ETF rose over half a percent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (DJP) also rose over half a percent.

Gold Edged Out Of Its Compression Triangle:

Spot gold initially failed at $3400 overnight and backed off a few bucks, but as the dollar weakened, the yellow metal began a slow grind higher that continued into the US session and eventually sent it out on the highs of the day with a gain of over half a percent to $3420 and just above the prior high that was seen in early August.

That close also notably put the metal just outside of its 5-month compression triangle, although without upside acceleration, that doesn't mean much yet.

Gold Stocks Treaded Water:

The GDX opened flat and initially dipped down to just below the 5 dma to mark the low of the day around mid-morning. From there, the GDX would firm to a new multiyear high by 2 pennies above Tuesday's intraday high before then backing off again into the close to end down just a touch. Volume was on the light side again, but the GDX once again closed above the 5 dma, which leaves the bulls firmly in charge.

HMY notably tanked 14 percent to a new 4-month low after saying that costs would rise 9 to 14 percent due to "inflationary realities." Rising costs are what always what ends up topping out the miners during a gold market in my experience. HMY is a sign that we're getting closer to that day where it's a problem for the whole industry, but clearly the action says we're not there just yet.

The GDX/GLD ratio backed off another half a percent from Tuesday's multiyear high.

The silver stocks were firmer than the gold names once again. The SIL rose a percent to a new 52-week high. The SILJ rose a touch to a new 52-week high, and the GDXJ fell half a percent.

Real yields were lower, and nominal yields were lower too. The yield curve flattened per the 2/10 spread. The dollar was weaker vs. other colored paper, and gold definitely seemed to feed off the dollar's weakness today, even though it was higher in all the major currencies and is close to breaking out the upside in those currencies just as it is in dollars.

Gold edged out of its compression triangle today, so the table is set for the bulls to take reins and jam the metal higher into month-end tomorrow. But can they?

The gold stocks were a little mixed today, which appeared to be due to HMY's shot across the bow, but as the statistics have shown over the year, one-day divergences between the GDX and gold are statistically meaningless in predicting the action of the next day in the metal.

Tomorrow we'll get the PCE, but this data point never seems to matter much to gold or forex.

Then, at 10:00 ET the hearing with the district court in DC will begin that will determine whether the Fed's Cook gets the TRO that she is seeking. Now, this case will no doubt be appealed all the way to the SCOTUS. Thus, I'm not sure how much this ruling tomorrow will potentially matter to the markets. My guess is it won't matter one bit, but who knows?

If too many guys are short the dollar at month-end, maybe it bounces because the judge grants the TRO and gold backs off?? Or does the dollar dive and gold rips because the judge doesn't grant the TRO? I honestly don't know, but other than mattering for a few hours, it won't matter much beyond that.

My gold model remained at neutral, but it's very close to a Tier 1 SELL, which would probably trigger tomorrow if gold and silver and GDX all trade higher. However, a Tier 1 SELL at the beginning of a rally can often precede upside acceleration rather than a peak. It all depends on whether the signal gets negated by aggressive upside the following day or not.

Also of note is that prior Tier 1 SELLs since gold has been in this 5-month consolidation were initially negated, and it would take a Trifecta SELL (just above a Tier 1) a few days later to mark the June and July highs in gold to the day. We are at least several days away from that Trifecta signal at the moment. Thus, if you're bullish, what you would like to see is for gold to break out of this 5-month range (i.e. - above $3450) before a Trifecta SELL is triggered, so that it merely leads to a potential pullback to retest the breakout from above, etc.

Positions: Long SLV 35.5 calls for tomorrow at 4.5 cents. Long GLD 317 and 319 calls for next Wed for 41 and 51 cents respectively. I also added some GDX 62 calls for tomorrow at an average of 12 cents today given the way GDX has moved sideways for the past couple days just off its high and notably above the 5 dma, which has created the potential (but not the guarantee) of a "launch pad" of sorts for tomorrow.

As always, I post all of these trades as Intraday Comments for subscribers in real time.

The Dollar Slipped:

The dollar was weaker vs. other paper but still isn't "going down well." To be fair, it's not going up well either. Take out 97.5 in the DXY, and perhaps the bears have something though, which could set up a test of the lows. The dollar index fell a touch.

"The" BTC ETF (IBIT) fell a touch. MSTR, COIN, RIOT and other BTC derivatives were mixed.

Positions: Long IBIT (last add was to double the position on April 4th at 47.03).

Treasury Yields Fell:

Treasury yields fell 3 bps in the long end, which left the 10yr yield at 4.21%.

The 2/10 spread narrowed but still looks ready to go make new highs as the short end plunges on Fed rate cut bets and the long end rises.

Yields in the Fed sensitive 2yr rose 1 bp to 3.63%. Junk debt rose, with the HYG adding a freckle to a new 52-week high. LQD, which is the investment grade corp bond ETF, rose a touch. MUB, the muni ETF, rose a touch.

To Sum Things Up:

Let's see how everything gets marked for the month ahead of the 3-day weekend tomorrow...

REMAIN FLEXIBLE