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October 16, 2026
 
     
  All Eyes On The KOSPI On Sunday Night  
     
 

The AI bubble continued to implode on Friday, with the S&Ps losing over a percent, the QQQ over 2 percent, and the SOX nearly 4 percent. I can't wait to see where the KOSPI trades on Sunday night.

The VIX also notably popped nearly 25 percent at one point and ended up 21 percent.

The dollar was mixed and basically unchanged per the DXY. BTC lost a percent.

Yields were basically unchanged in the long end, but the 2yr fell 4 bps to a new closing low for the week.

Commodities were mostly higher, including crude oil, which rose 3 percent to a new high for the week.

Gold and silver rallied out of the gate in the US but couldn't push through resistance at the high of the week in the case of gold, and that was all it took to send bulls into retreat in both metals, which would ultimately send them out with losses of a touch and nearly a percent respectively.

The GDX opened flat and squirted up to a new high for the week and touched its downtrend since August before reversing when the metals failed. Unlike the metals though, the GDX would go out higher with a gain of nearly a percent and closed above its 5 dma, which puts the bulls back in charge.

As the AI bubble continues to come apart, we should see yields and the dollar continue to move lower, and that should in turn put a bid under gold and silver and the miners. If gold can break out over $4200 early next week, I think it's going to run, and that probably means the GDX will take out its downtrend since August on the same day.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, IBIT, and BLDR.

Metals: long SHNY, GDXU, and AGQ. I sold my GDX 87 calls on Friday for 2 bucks, which was a little over 10x, and I dumped my SLV calls for a push. Late in the afternoon, I added some GLD 388 calls for Monday for 22 cents.

 
     
     
 
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