The S&Ps opened down about a third of a percent after global L-T yields and the dollar moved higher again overnight, and we quickly dove to a low of about half a percent to mark the low of the day. From there, we began to firm and eventually cut our loss to about a quarter of a percent after the 10yr auction turned out to not be a disaster and yields actually dipped a little.

That pop marked the high of the day, and the S&Ps proceeded to chop sideways for the rest of the session (the FOMC minutes were a yawn and generated zero reaction) to go out near the highs of the day and only with a loss of a quarter of a percent. Note that MDY and IWM (which don't have an AI component supporting them) bounced off their 200 dma last week and returned to it today.

The dollar was mostly firmer once again, with the DXY adding half a percent to a new 52-week high. BTC slipped 3 percent.

Yields initially rose in the long end to a new 52-week high even as the short end continued to decline. After the 10 yr auction wasn't a complete disaster, however, the 10yr yield actually fell back to unchanged, which is where it closed. Even more peculiar, the XLU ended flat and spent most of the day higher? The only conclusion there is that utility buyers see a top in yields soon, although perhaps just not quite yet? Thus, if yields continue to press higher, we may see the XLU put in a higher low etc.

Commodities were down across the board, including crude, which fell over a percent. Palladium notably collapsed 5 percent to a new 52-week low. Platinum also notably dumped 5 percent but still has a ways to go before a new 52-week low is hit.

Gold and silver drifted lower overnight despite the news that the PBOC had bought the largest amount of gold in 3 years back in September. Once we arrived at the US open, prices were then seal clubbed to as low as $4070 and $59. That clubbing marked the low of the day, and both metals managed to bounce back up to the US open and peaked around the same time that yields came in after the 10yr auction. For the close, both metals would go out near the middle of the day's range with losses of nearly 2 percent and nearly 3 percent respectively. Both made new lows for the move.

The GDX gapped down to a new low for the move, and after a brief plunge, it also bounced and then eventually faded back to the mid-levels of the day to end back where it had started with a loss of over 3 percent.

Obviously, yesterday's brief move above the 5 dma by gold, silver, and the GDX was a head fake, and the bears remain in charge. Robots keep selling every uptick in the dollar and long-term yields, and until that changes, I'm going to assume that it will continue. I can't say that I understand it, because a yield curve that is steepening rapidly like this is typically bullish for metals? But there's no point in arguing with price.

As the title above reads, nothing good tends to happen in gold, silver, and GDX when they are below the 5 dma, so rather than hope for the high probability bet to be wrong while prices move against me, I moved to the sidelines today until that simple fact changes. It may sound simplistic, but it works.

Now, hopefully I am tossing in the towel just in time for China to return to work tonight and things suddenly turn tomorrow, but my fear (given the trend) is that this rally in yields and the dollar and the corresponding selling in the metals isn't going to end until we see something dramatic in yields and the dollar that maybe even finally hits equities too, which could lead to gold and silver following palladium to new lows.

My gold model moved back to a Tier 3 BUY after briefly moving to neutral yesterday for a single day. My data came in late last night and altered what I had originally posted.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, and IBIT.

Metals: Flat.