The Fed's Waller apparently had a few too many in London and suggested overnight that the Fed might move 50 bps in December. This comment sent the dollar zipping back to the upside. The metals were hammered. The S&Ps also slipped, and yields moved higher.

Then, before the equity open we got the October CPI, and it came in a little hotter than the consensus at 0.4% vs. 0.3%, while the core was 0.3% vs 0.2%.

Once again, we saw some Fed-panic, as the S&Ps slipped further. Yields rose, and the dollar ripped higher again. Precious metals were spanked again.

The S&Ps opened down about half a percent and proceeded to chops sideways all day to go out basically where they had opened with a loss of just under half a percent. The QQQ lost half a percent, and the SOX slipped a third of a percent.

The dollar was firmer, with the DXY adding half a percent and moving back to the top its 3-day range. The DXY has moved violently back and forth in a tight range over the past several days. Typically, this sort of volatility is indicative of a trend change in process, which in this case would be DOWN, but we shall see. BTC lost over a percent.

Yields rose all across the curve but mostly in the Fed-sensitive short end thanks to Waller.

Commodities were mostly lower, including crude, which fell another half a percent. Elsewhere, losses were pretty minimal, with copper, platinum and palladium all losing about a percent and only retracing yesterday's gains.

Gold tanked overnight in response to Waller, and eventually tumbled to a low of $4016 in the US in the wake of the CPI. Fro that low, the metal would then firm to go out back up around $4033 for a loss of over 2.6 percent.

Silver traded similarly and dumped down to a low of nearly $51 before firming to go out back up over $51.50 for a loss of over 3 percent.

The GDX gapped down and slumped to fill yesterday's gap before firming and then eventually going out back near the earlier lows with a loss of over 5 percent, which like with the metals basically wiped out yesterday's gain.

Gold, silver, and GDX all closed below their 5 dma today for the first time since rising above them last week. Rather than a shift to the bears taking charge, however, I suspect this is more of a one-day head fake. Time will tell though.

If it is just a head fake and the uptrend since the low remains intact, we should see the 5 dma recovered tomorrow and prices once again move back to attack last week's highs.

Waller doesn't speak for the FOMC, so while the fed funds futures market seemed to move some on this, I don't believe people actually believe the Fed will go 50 bps, and if crude continues to collapse based these "deal" rumors, I doubt the Fed will even go 25 bps.

It's oil that the metals and dollar are trading off of in my view. If oil recovers, then the dollar may well break out, and the metals will probably be spanked. If, however, crude continues to slide, then the metals are going to rip.

To be clear, "rip" doesn't mean zip back to the highs. That kind of move, assuming it's in the cards, takes time. But a rally that's worth playing from the long side, which has been my view since the recent low, is still very probable. And after all, this is a game of probabilities.

My gold model moved to a Tier 4 BUY, which has normally coincided with a Tier 3 BUY lately. This time it didn't, so I'm not sure what to make of that. A Tier 4 hasn't been the slamdunnk for a short-term rally in the past like a Tier 3 has been of late, and we haven't had one recently unless it was coincident with a Tier 3. Basically, I view this as less bearish but that's about it.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC, DBA, and BLDR.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNY. I also added some SLV 49 calls for Friday for 10 cents after my 50s for tomorrow got smoked by Waller.