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August 4, 2026
 
     
  Blowoff?  
     
 

The S&Ps opened up about half a percent to a new all-timer, and we were off to see the wizard... The remainder of the session was a nonstop meltup that sent the S&Ps out just off the very best levels of the day with a gain of nearly 2 percent.

Interestingly, the VIX also jumped 4 percent, while the QQQ's 3 percent gain failed to even sniff a new high. The SOX's 7 percent pop also fell well short of a new high. So, not only were there a lot of divergences with this new high but the VIX popping suggests something may be wrong here as well. We may be looking at a blowoff in my view. AI mania took everything up since March, and that AI mania, best shown in the QQQ and SOX, may be blowing up as we speak.

The dollar was little changed, while yields were broadly lower all across the curve.

Commodities were mostly higher except for crude, which tumbled 6 percent on more chatter from the US about a "deal" to open the straits despite Iran denying any such deal. Platinum also interestingly popped over 6 percent and is the first precious metal to show a pulse.

Gold drifted sideways overnight and eventually began to slowly firm in the US and eventually printed a high of $4100 (just shy of breaking its downtrend since July 22nd) before turning over and going out back at $4077 for a gain of half a percent.

Silver popped to as high as $60 and just shy of its July 27th high before fading to go out back at 59.5 for a gain of over 2 percent.

The GDX gapped up on the open and rallied to just above its July 22nd high and briefly attacked its downtrend since the high before fading into the close to out off the highs and just below that downtrend but still with a gain of over 2 percent.

Gold, silver, and GDX all closed above the 5 dma, so the bulls remain charge, but given the hand to hand combat that has occurred within such a tight range over the past month, I'm not sure that indicator should be given much weight yet.

What I'd like to see from here is for the metals and GDX to move sideways for a couple days in order to set up an upside rip on Friday's jobs data. However, we don't always get what we want.

Gold barely moved today despite the decent pop in silver and GDX, as well as platinum. So, that's a little troubling. The SPY/GLD ratio also made another new high for the move, which has been the trend since the Jan 29th top in gold. So, that's a little troubling as well.

Hopefully, my caution is misplaced, but something doesn't seem right about this setup for the bulls. If, however, we can finish the week above the July highs, then that's enough to prove to me that at minimum some sort of rally is under way.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions:Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT and STRC.

Metals: I put GDXD and ZSL out at the morning's highs. If the rally continues tomorrow, I'll exit these trades. Otherwise, I'm looking for a pullback at minimum.

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

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