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June 29, 2026
 
     
  Waiting On Quarter-End  
     
 

There was more fighting between the US and Iran over the weekend that once again conveniently was halted within an hour of the futures opening last night. This is becoming somewhat laughable, but as usual, nobody cared.

The S&Ps opened up about a percent, and after a brief dump to nearly go flat, we rallied back and surged to a new high for the day, where we would then flop and chop for the rest of the day to go out on the highs with a gain of nearly 2 percent.

The dollar was a touch weaker, with the DXY slipping a touch. However, the dol/yen once again barely moved and remains near its multiyear high despite threats of intervention and even a small tick down today that was thought to maybe BE an attempt at intervention.

Yields were higher but not by much.

Commodities were on the heavy side once again, including crude, which fell a touch. The DJP bberg commodity index ETF fell a percent to just shy of a new low for the move. Platinum also notably fell over 2 percent and back to just shy of its recent lows. Some of this commodity weakness may be due to weakness in China's economy, and that's something to keep an eye on. Weak demand for crude from China may also explain why crude continues to trade like a submarine despite dwindling inventories.

BTC rose over a percent despite MST announcing that it was selling a chunk of BTC in order to buy back stock. MSTR jumped 13 percent, and STRC jumped 12 percent. Interesting action...

Gold slipped overnight and hit a low of exactly $4K in the US to mark the low for the day. Following a bounce back up to around $4030, the metal weakened again to end closer to $4015 for a loss of over a percent.

Silver similarly slipped overnight and then hit a low of $57.5 in the US before bouncing back up to over $58 to go out at back at roughly $58 for a loss of over a percent.

The GDX opened down inside of Friday's range and slipped to a loss of over 2 percent before rebounding to go out back near the better levels of the day but still down almost 2 percent. That close once again left the GDX below the 5 dma, so the bears remain in charge.

The metals ended below the 5 dma once again too, so the bears still appear to be in charge there as well, but with quarter-end coming up tomorrow, it would be unusual to see any sort of serious selloff. Most of the time, things are pretty quiet. In fact, given that the trend of the quarter has been down, some sort of bounce is generally more likely but not necessarily guaranteed.

On Wed, we get an appearance by Warsh at a Central Bankers shrimpfest, and then on Thursday we'll get the jobs data (Friday is a holiday).

I still believe there's risk of a further downside flush in the metals and miners, but perhaps some sort of bounce appears tomorrow and maybe Wed morning on the 1st before it potentially hits? Should a flush appear sooner, it might set up the jobs data to be a potential upside reversal catalyst, but until we get closer to the event, there's no way of knowing.

My gold model remained on a Tier 3 BUY.

Positions: I left my equity longs and shorts unchanged.

Metals: Long GDXD> I also added SLV 50 puts for Wed for 20 cents and SLV 50 puts for tomorrow for a nickel just in case something unusual happens.

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

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