The S&Ps opened up a touch and began to slip. Shortly after the open, we got the manufacturing ISM, and it came in pretty much inline with the consensus, which briefly caused a pop in yields that then collapsed.

The S&Ps slumped to a new low for the day regardless, and we chopped sideways for the rest of the morning until some more Fed goons started yapping and repeated Williams' line from the other day that they saw no need to move again soon. These comments sent the odds of an October hike further into the toilet and for the first time drew down the odds of a December hike too.

The dollar dipped a little in response, and yields in the short end slumped again as well. The S&Ps and metals popped a little, and after climbing back to the opening highs, the S&Ps proceeded to chop sideways for the rest of the day to go out near the highs with a gain of just a touch.

The dollar firmed again for the most part, which popped the DXY half a percent to a new 52-week high. BTC rose a percent.

Yields fell all across the curve but once again fell in the most in the Fed-sensitive short end, which propelled the 2/10 spread to another new high for the move since its V-bottom back on Sep 23rd. The 2yr yield looks to have topped in my opinion.

Commodities were mixed, but crude managed to pop 5 percent on headlines from Trump about renewing bombing after the midterms. Another aircraft carrier was reportedly deployed to the Middle East today too, although it's unclear if this is a replacement carrier for another one that will leave the area or a 3rd carrier. Either way, these moves are designed by Trump to pressure the Iranians into a deal in my view, and Tex-Mex could till be served at any time.

Gold and silver edged higher overnight for no particular reason and moved sideways in the same overnight range during the US session to end near the highs of the day with gains of half a percent and a percent respectively to just shy of their 5 dma's.

The GDX opened flat and plunged to a new low for the week, where it then bounced a little and then drifted back to the lows to go out near the lower levels of the day with a loss of over a percent. As long time readers know, one-day divergences between the miners and the metals have a predictive record of exactly 50/50 for the following day, which is to say that they're meaningless.

The metals and GDX all remain below their 5 dma, so the bears are still in statistical control. With that said, we do have the jobs data tomorrow, where the consensus is looking for another solid number. Thus, the conditions are such that a surprise could cause quite a bit of movement given that that the 2yr yield already appeared to top today, and the dollar is extremely extended.

We also still have bullish RSI divergences in both silver and now in the GDX hourly chart as well.

So, we'll see what happens tomorrow, but if prices fail to recover the 5 dma and reverse violently to the upside, new lows for the week would open the door to the metals revisiting the lows. That's not where I see the odds pointing, but that's the risk if I'm wrong about being long.

My gold model probably remained on a Tier 3 BUY, but I don't have all my data in yet.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, DBA, and STRC.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNNY. I also added more SLV 57 calls for tomorrow for an average of a nickel today. i also bought the GDX 90 calls for tomorrow for 7 cents.