Crude climbed a couple percent overnight after Trump turned down Iran's peace offer (which Iran denied on Friday that it ever made), and that seemed to be the proximate cause for the dollar and yields to push higher again, which weighed a little on the S&Ps and weighed a LOT on the metals.

The S&Ps opened down about half a percent and quickly dove to a loss of about a percent but then recovered to a marginal new high for the day as yields and the dollar weakened when headlines hit that Trump was willing to meet some of Iran's demands if Iran gave in on the nuclear issues.

Iran once again denied that the talks were happening, just like on Friday, and that headline sent yield and the dollar back to the mid-levels of the day again and sent the S&Ps slowly fading back to their earlier lows, which is basically where we closed with a loss of nearly a percent.

The dollar was a little firmer and swung on the deal or no deal headlines as usual. The DXY added a hair. BTC fell over a percent.

Yields surged again to new highs all across the curve, but the curve steepened once again for a 4th session.

Commodities were mostly lower, while crude slumped nearly $4 from the $100 high WTI hit before the headlines knocked it to as low as $94.50 before it closed back up at 96.50. Note the XOP fell nearly a percent and is a freckle away from breaking down from a H&S top. So, Americans continue to bet on a deal, or more precisely, they're betting on Trump doing whatever it takes to bring down oil prices with just over 30 days to go until the midterm elections.

Gold and silver collapsed overnight to new lows for the month, and after a bounce on the deal headlines in the US, both rolled back over and slumped to marginal new lows into the close to go out basically on the worst levels of the day with a loss of 4 and 5 percent respectively.

The GDX gapped down and likewise bounced before rolling back over and closing on the lows with a loss of over 5 percent.

Once again the metals and GDX all closed well below the 5 dma, so the bears remain statistically in charge. With that said, we do have an initial glimmer of hope in the form of inverted hammers in SLV, and GDX and less so in GLD (last seen on the Sep 1st low). We also have another Tier 3 BUY from my model (see below).

I still think the Trumper is going to do a deal and soon. In other words, Tex-Mex is on the menu ahead of the end of the quarter in my view. Whether a deal lasts or means much is for others to debate, but a deal in time for quarter end should set up a first way, wrong way situation in the metals and miners as the dollar and short-term yields reverse, but if that's to be the case, then we should start to see prices reverse tomorrow.

If I'm wrong, then all bets are off. And we could see the metals revisit the lows, although based on how well the GDX/GLD ratio continues to hold up, prices won't stay at those lows for long.

My gold model moved back to a Tier 3 BUY after being neutral ahead of today's beating. I never like to fade a Tier 3 BUY, or at least not in 2026.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, and IBIT.

Metlas: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNY. I also doubled all three of these today to a full position. I also bought the SLV 57 and 58 calls for 16 and 10 cents respectively.

Stay flexible my friends...