The S&Ps opened flat and initially dumped into slightly negative territory despite the usual daily headlines of "we're close to a deal," "they want a deal," "we'll have a deal soon," and of course my favorite "the straits will be open soon."

Crude oil also ignored the usual happy talk headlines and marched higher, which appeared to be the proximate cause for the spoo dump.

As quickly as the S&Ps had sold, however, we bottomed out around mid-morning and ripped to the upside once again. After that initial push higher, we backed off a little and then firmed again into the close to go out back up near the best levels of the day with a gain of a quarter of a percent for the 12th straight day to the upside. Lucky 13 on deck?

Crude oil gained 3 percent despite all the happy talk, which as I alluded to yesterday may be a signal that real world supply and demand has finally overwhelmed selling based on "we have a deal" chatter.

The dollar was a touch stronger, and yields rose again too. BTC added a hair.

Commodities were mixed, ex-crude.

Gold rallied overnight up to a new high for the move and to as high as $4874 before turning over and giving all that back to eventually end with a loss of a hair in the US at $4790 after briefly spiking to as low as $4773 earlier in the session.

Silver similarly spiked overnight and doubled topped with its high near $81 earlier in the week and likewise sold off. After dumping back to as low as nearly $78, the white metal managed to flop around for the rest of the day just off that low to go out closer to $78.5 with a loss of nearly a percent. Once again silver narrowly avoided falling back through $78 which is the top of its rising wedge on the charts and would potentially complete a "first way, wrong way" reversal from yesterday's breakout above that wedge. A drop back below $78 would in theory thus be "bad."

The GDX opened flat and basically danced sideways all day in barely positive territory before eventually slipping a little to end down a hair. Once again the GDX closed below the 5 dma for a second session, which increases the odds markedly that control has shifted back to the bears from a statistical standpoint.

What the market hasn't discounted yet is that the real world shortages of oil, refined products (Europe has only 6 weeks of jet fuel), fertilizer, helium, etc are developing and won't be solved anytime soon even if ships were to enter port yesterday to be filled and could leave. That's why I suspect we've already seen the lows for "the war is over" in crude oil, and now comes the new highs based on "Oh crap we are running out of that black stuff and all the products we turn it into."

I don't know what day that sinks into the heads of equity market traders, but it may already be dawning on traders of precious metals, where more distressed sales to raise cash are likely IF the greatest oil shock in history isn't over just yet. And I don't think it is.

My gold model was neutral again.

Remember, it's not "war" that's bearish for asset prices. It's the deflationary shock that is caused by this unusual shortage of oil that resulted from the conflict and remains even after bombs stop dropping (think of it like a shortage of cash) that is negative for both the economy and financial markets.

Positions: I left my shorts unchanged in SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Those last two have started sliding again btw. Long IBIT and DBA.

Long GDXD and ZSL and the SLV 68 puts for tomorrow. I also added the SLV 69 puts for tomorrow for 13 cents a little after the open this morning.