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October 15, 2026
 
     
  AI Bubble Implosion Continues  
     
 

Overnight the selling in all things AI-related continued overseas. The South Korean KOSPI plunged 8 percent and is on the verge of breaking down from a large H&S top. The Nikkei plunged 5 percent.

All of that action had global yields lower once again, and the dollar was heavier, while precious metals were higher. In the case of gold, they had even recovered all of yesterday's losses.

Before the US open, we got the PPI, and like the CPI, it came in a little warmer at a headline of 6.3 percent annually vs. a 5.4 percent consensus. The core came in at a 5 percent annual clip vs. a 4 percent consensus.

Like yesterday, the kneejerk move was to push up yields and the dollar and pound the metals, but unlike yesterday, those brief moves were over within about 5 minutes and then reversed.

The S&Ps opened down about half a percent and quickly hit their low for the day. From there, we began to rally and quickly moved up into barely positive territory, although SOX and QQQ (where all the AI exposure is) remained red.

The S&Ps would proceed to slowly saw their way higher and would eventually go out on the highs with a gain of a third of a percent.

The dollar was weaker, with the DXY losing half a percent. BTC rose nearly a percent.

Yields were down all across the curve, with the long end falling 12 bps to a new low for the week.

Commodities were also higher for the most part, including crude, which rose over 2 percent. Curiously, however, the oil stocks were all down over a percent per the major ETFs.

Gold and silver both rallied overnight, and after a brief pullback on the PPI, they pushed higher again to go out on the best levels of the session with gains of 2 and 3 percent respectively. In the case of gold, it also managed to completely reverse yesterday's decline. Silver retraced about half of that decline as well.

The GDX opened higher near yesterday's highs and rallied for the remainder of the session to also completely reverse yesterday's decline. It did, however, finish a few pennies shy of the 5 dma, so the bears still remain technically in charge. Gold, importantly, did recover its 5 dma.

As the AI bubble continues to come undone, it's going to continue to pull down yields and the dollar, and that should benefit the metals and miners. Typically when we have seen these credit events in the past, yields might fall, but the dollar has rallied. That's a recipe for the metals and miners to decline WITH stocks. That's not happening though, so I believe we can see the metals and miners receive a flight to safety bid even as the large tech stocks that have been the primary beneficiaries of the AI trade continue to decline, and importantly their debt continues to decline.

This AI boom is what has propped up the US and global economy. As it implodes, everything is going with it, and my bet is the Fed is going to be easing in December rather than hiking.

In the meantime, we want to see silver and GDX join the yellow metal tomorrow in recovering its 5 dma. If things are REALLY bullish, we may even see them entirely reverse the decline for the week. We shall see...

Warsh speaks tonight at 11:30 ET, although I wouldn't expect him to make any comments about monetary policy. You never know though.

My gold model hasn't updated yet so I will post it as an Intraday Comment tomorrow morning before the open.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Ling DBA, STRC, and IBIT. I also added a long in BLDR shortly after the open this morning before it popped 6%. As mortgage yields fall, this provider of building products to commercial builders should benefit. Recall I was short the stock most of the way down earlier this year.

Metals: I bought my GDXU and AGQ back for amazingly less than I sold them for yesterday. I also added SHNY and then doubled all of them around mid-morning. I also kept my SLV 52 calls for tomorrow and my GDX 87 calls for tomorrow that I purchased in the final hour yesterday.

Stay flexible my friends...

 
     
     
 
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