The S&Ps opened down about half a percent on the back of crude taking off again overnight, and after a brief bounce that nearly got us back to the unchanged mark, we rolled over and slumped back to near the lows, where we would chop sideways for the rest of the day. For the close, the S&Ps would go out near the lows of the day and just above the 100 dma for a loss of half a percent.

The S&Ps haven't traded below 100 dma since April of 2026.

AI began the day lower and then bounced, with the SOX actually ending up half a percent and the QQQ down only a freckle.

The dollar was a little stronger, with the DXY ending up a hair.

Yields bounced a little, with both the 2yr and 10yr adding 4 bps.

Commodities were mostly lower except for crude, which popped 4 percent and sent the USO to another new 52-week high.

Gold slipped a little overnight and then collapsed to as low as $3976. Following a bounce back above $4000, the metal proceeded to flop and chop around the $4000 mark for the rest of the day to end down over half a percent at $3996 and a new low for the move.

Silver slipped a little overnight as well and then briefly plunged to $53 before rebounding much like gold to chop sideways around the $54 mark for the rest of the day to end down over a percent to a new low for the move.

The GDX opened down a touch, and after a brief bounce, it plunged to a new low for the move with the metals and then bounced to also chop sideways for the rest of the day and went out with a loss of 2 percent.

Nothing good happens below the 5 dma, and the metals and miners continue to be solidly below that key trading average, which leaves the bears once again fully in charge.

Yields continue to fall as the AI trade comes apart and rising crude oil prices pressure the rest of the non-AI economy. The problem for gold, however, continues to be the dollar. If it continues to rally, the metals aren't going to rally as I've been expecting them to, and it may even take the Fed easing before they can rally, which is going to become an increasing probability as the equity market continues to come apart. Or at least that's been the case in prior cycles.

In short run, we're pretty oversold in the metals and miners, and my model moved back to a buy, which has been good for a bounce at minimum.

Perhaps that bounce can turn into something more on the FOMC on Wed, but I'm not holding my breath.

My gold model moved back to a Tier 3 BUY, which typically means some sort of rally (if only a bounce) is due to appear shortly.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, BLDR, STRC, and IBIT.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNY, but I will likely be adjusting these next week.