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June 12, 2026
 
     
  Waiting On The "Deal To Make A Deal"  
     
 

The S&Ps bounced another half a percent on hopes for the deal to make a deal to be signed over the weekend. Note that we appear to be putting in a right shoulder of a H&S top on the S&Ps and QQQ.

The dollar firmed a touch despite the deal BS, and yields also rose interesting.

BTC was flat, but MSTR gained 3 percent.

Commodities were mostly higher ex-crude, which dumped another 3 percent.

Gold rallied a touch higher to $4219 for a gain of a freckle, while silver picked up a percent.

The GDX rallied another 3 percent.

My guess is we'll get some sort of signing of this BS "deal" over the weekend, but the interesting thing is going to be how everything trades on Monday now that this so-called deal is finally done. My bet is that crude rallies, and the bounce we've seen in everything not nailed down starts to fall apart ahead of the FOMC.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long STRC, IBIT, and DBA.

Metals: I punted my ZSL and GDXD on the open, which left me flat going into the weekend. I plan to put these back out on Monday.

 
     
     
 
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