The S&Ps opened up about a percent on "hope for a deal" despite crude and the dollar firming up overnight from yesterday's ceasefire BS headline beating after the close.

From there, the S&Ps would slowly saw their way lower as crude and the dollar firmed after Iran repeated that there were no ceasefire talks with the US.

For the close, the S&Ps would go out near the lows of the day but still up half a percent.

The dollar index would rally about half a percent, which basically recovered all of yesterday's losses and then some.

Yields were relatively unchanged, but like the dollar and crude, they firmed off their lows that were hit on last night's headline.

BTC firmed half a percent and continues to tread water, which given it's performance over the past few months is certainly an improvement.

Commodities were mostly higher and continue to move largely in lockstep with stocks, and that goes for gold and silver too.

Gold traded up to as high as $4585 overnight for a gain of about 5 percent (including the post-equity close pop on the ceasefire BS headlines last night) and then dumped to as low as $4486 near the close of the equity session today before rebounding into the close to end closer to $4540 for a gain of 3 percent from yesterday's equity close.

Silver similarly popped overnight and then slumped during the US session to go out back at around $72 for a gain of over 3 percent.

The GDX gapped up big on the open and then reversed to go out near the lows but still with a gain of over 3 percent. That close also put the GDX back over the 5 dma for the first time since its one-day head fake over that average on March 10th. Time will tell if this pop is also a head fake, but that's the way I am leaning at the moment.

Again, I find it noteworthy that crude made a higher low on last night's ceasefire headlines as opposed to the low that was made on Monday's ceasefire social media post. Basically this "chatter" is having less and less of an effect on the markets, although it did produce a nice three day bounce in asset prices, which is just basically the result of shorts and options being squeezed until the move exhausted after Monday's news-induced price reversal.

With that said, based on the moves in crude and the dollar today, I suspect downside in asset prices is going to resume tomorrow.

My gold model moved back to neutral after 3 days of buy signals that caught the little bounce we've had. Again, when these signals mean something for a move other than a brief bounce, you are typically up big the following day. For example, on Friday, March 13, 2020, which was the low ahead of Monday's upside reversal after the Fed announced it would run the printing presses, my model spit out a Tier 1 BUY. Obviously, I am rooting for that signal again at some point.

Positions: I left my shorts unchanged in SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. I remain long IBIT

Long GDXD and ZSL, and I increased both by 50% on the open this morning on top of yesterday's add. I also bought SLV 59 puts for Friday for 15 cents.