The S&Ps opened up a touch after crude came in about $3 overnight after Iran confirmed that it would sending a delegation to Pakistan on Friday. Trump remained quiet though. Those headlines, as usual, also send the dollar a little lower along with yields and popped gold and silver off their overnight lows.

The S&Ps slowly edged higher until around mid-morning when it hit the tape that Trump was also sending a US delegation to Pakistan (shocker? Did anyone actually believe he wouldn't make this announcement?). The S&Ps popped to a gain of about a percent as the dollar and yield tumbled further. Gold and silver also popped again.

From there, the S&Ps would basically chop sideways all day near the highs and eventually went out on the best levels of the day with a gain of nearly a percent.

The dollar slipped, with the DXY losing a touch, while commodities (ex-crude were a little higher. Crude oil interestingly only fell a couple percent and didn't seem too impressed with this latest round of "talks."

BTC fell a freckle, while MSTR backed off a percent.

Gold traded down to a new low for the week overnight but then began to recover and eventually popped on the Iran-related BS headlines, which allowed it to crawl back up to a high at $4740 before slipping again late in the afternoon to go out back at $4700ish for a gain of half a percent.

Silver similarly traded down to a new low for the week overnight at $74 and then rebounded to eventually pop on the Iran BS headlines back up to around $76.65 before tumbling again into the close to go out back at $75.65 for a gain of just over half a percent.

The GDX opened near yesterday's highs and was helped by a 9 percent romp in NEM after it won at "beat the numbah". For the close, the GDX would end near the highs with a gain of over 2 percent. That close, however, once again left the GDX below the 5 dma, which leaves the bears still statistically in charge.

I would also note that the reaction to the first big mining earnings report tends to be the opposite of what the bulk of the reports see in the coming days. Or at least that's the pattern I've noticed over the years.

We obviously got out Friday "deal is coming soon" BS as expected, although the reaction in the metals wasn't as violent to the upside as usual, which is another sign of their near term weakness.

Every day that passes increases the shortfall in crude supplies, and it's only a matter of time before the cogs of supply and demand begin to turn and thrust crude oil violently higher. A resumption of hostilities would of course hasten that thrust, but a peace deal as of even "yesterday" isn't going to stop it either. So, it really doesn't matter.

As crude pushes higher, precious metals will increasingly be used as sources of cash, and with this week's breakdown in gold from its rising wedge and silver from its bear flag, I think we've started the next leg down that I've been warning about. That obviously goes for the GDX too.

On Wed, we'll get the FOMC, but I don't anticipate anything earth shattering from PowPow. Iran and oil are really all that matters right now.

Don't forget that we have a futures option expiration in the metals on Monday too, which may serve to either hold prices where they were on Friday or alternatively serve to accelerate downside.

My gold model remained at neutral, but recall it took Tier 2 and 3 BUYs to mark the March lows, which I will be looking for again to signal lows in the coming weeks.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: I put GDXD and ZSL back out on the Iran BS headlines, and I added SLV 66 puts for Monday.