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October 6, 2026
 
     
  Metals & Miners Begin Knocking On The Door For Potential Upside  
     
 

The S&Ps opened up a touch and slowly worked their way up to a new all-timer and a gain of nearly a percent on the highs of the day around mid-morning. From there, we began to slowly fade back to the mid-point of the day's range to go out with a gain of half a percent but still at a new all-timer.

The dollar was weaker, with the DXY slipping a touch. BTC fell a hair.

Yields slipped again, and this time the long end fell a couple bps to match the 2yr. Even more interesting was the 3 percent pop in the XLU, which has led the way by collapsing ahead of yields rising. Perhaps it is leading once again?

Commodities were also mostly higher, including crude, which rose half a percent after beginning the day lower.

Gold and silver initially dipped overnight, and godl even spiked to a marginal new low below last week's low and to as low as $4104 before an upside reversal took place. From those lows, both metals then rallied overnight back up to yesterday's highs once again before then weakening once the US session began as yields and the dollar initially moved up.

Once yields and the dollar turned back over though, both metals would rally back and eventually took out their overnight highs before then slipping from those highs in the last hour of the equity session to end off the highs but still up over half a percent in both cases.

The GDX initially dipped into the red as the metals weakened, but as the metals roared back when yields and the dollar slipped, the GDX rallied into positive territory and to a new high for the week. Like the metals, the GDX did give back some in the final hour, but it still went out with a gain of nearly a percent.

Importantly, for the first time in 10 sessions, gold, silver, and GDX all closed above their 5 dma, which statistically puts the bulls back in charge. Now, there is an outside chance that today's recovery of that MA is not an indication of a change in trend but rather just a one-day head fake, but give the number of days that my model has been on a BUY as the metals and miners have largely moved sideways since last Monday's dump and the fact that today's rally occurred on no real news, I tend to look at it as the typical sneaky move by the metals complex back into bullish position, which will catch a bunch of shorts sleeping at the wheel tomorrow.

With today's move back above the 5 dma, the metals and miners should be in a position to now pop to the upside, but we won't have confirmation that the low is in and things have turned until we recover last Monday's loss (the "mother bar"), which we've been roughly consolidating within ever since that decline back on October 28th.

Let's see what tomorrow brings, but if the metals can take out last week's highs overnight, that should open the door to a test of the 20 dma and even potentially the 50 dma in both gold and silver if things get really frisky. China comes back to work tomorrow night too, so if things do begin to rally, I could see where shorts may move out of the way more aggressively if their downside hopes don't appear.

My gold model remained on a Tier 3 BUY for a 7th straight session.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, and IBIT.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, SHNY, and I also added some more SLV 57 calls for tomorrow for 3 pennies today.

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

Mr. Lewis is the president of Lewis Capital, which is a registered investment advisory firm in Dallas, Texas. The firm regularly buys, sells, or holds securities that are the subject of Mr. Lewis’ columns, or options with respect to those securities, and regularly holds positions in such securities or options as of the date those columns are published. The views and opinions expressed in Mr. Lewis' columns are not intended to constitute a description of the securities bought, sold, or held by the firm in its capacity as an advisor. The views and opinions expressed in Mr. Lewis' columns are also not an indication of any intention to buy, sell, or hold any security on behalf of the advisor’s clients, and investment decisions made on behalf of clients may change at any time and for any reason. Mr. Lewis' columns are not intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

 
   
     
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