Before the open, the ADP employment report came in roughly inline at 98,000, and Warsh's appearance at the central banker shrimpfest was a complete yawner, as he made no comment about a potential rate hike in July. The S&Ps opened down a touch, and after a brief plunge, we began the usual rally. The rally continued through the release of the ISM, which came in roughly inline at 53.3 (the employment component rose to 49.7).

After hitting a high around mid-morning, we rolled over and spent the rest of the session heading down the other side of the mountain to go out back at roughly the open with a loss of a touch.

The dollar dipped early on and then firmed to end up a touch per the DXY. Note the dollar/yen ended the quarter yesterday at a new multidecade high. Currencies tend to trend, and right now the dollar is on a rip.

Yields rose a tiny bit.

BTC bounced a couple percent, while MSTR rebounded about 7 percent.

Commodities were mixed. Crude fell another 3 percent like it does every day, and copper slipped over a percent too. Platinum, however, bounce 2 percent after briefly taking out its lows overnight. The XME metals and mining ETF notably slipped over 2 percent to a new low for the move and well below the 200 dma.

Gold slipped below 4K overnight once again but then rebounded and caught what appeared to be a beginning of the quarter bid along with some short covering in the US session. After squirting up to as high as $4115 as the dollar slipped, the metal then rolled over and began to give those gains back as the dollar firmed. For the close, the yellow metal went out back at $4031 for a gain of half a percent.

Silver traded similarly and squirted up to the top of what appears to be a "bear flag" on the hourly charts at 61. Like gold, silver then slipped for the rest of the day to go out back $59 for a gain of just a touch.

The GDX popped up above the 5 dma and then reversed to close on the low tick and back below the 5 dma with a loss of half a percent. Thus, the bears remain in charge.

I still think we're looking at a final washout in the metals, but whether we can bounce some more before it begins remains to be seen. Obviously, tomorrow's jobs data could have an impact on the timing.

I suspect we're in zone that is virtually the opposite of the environment in late January where sentiment was in the extreme for bullishness and Tier 1 SELL signals from my model were run over every day until finally the parabola peaked and we got a reversal.

Similarly, sentiment is very poor in the metals now, and my Tier 3 BUY is getting run over daily. In other words, we could be looking at the perfect bookend for what happened in late January over the coming days if another selloff begins. And wherever that selloff terminates, we could be looking at quite the initial rebound. Until then though, a lot of damage can be done if the recent lows are taken out.

My gold model remained at a Tier 3 BUY, but this isn't working, which is bearish.

Positions: I made no changes to my equity longs and shorts.

Metals: Long GDXD. Long SLV 50 puts for tomorrow, and I added some more today for a nickel, and I added SLV 51 puts for tomorrow for 7 cents.