The S&Ps opened up a touch after crude backed off about $4 from its overnight highs on the back of more hopeful "soon the war will be over" headlines. The particular headline isn't important at this point. It's just more of the same BS.

After a small pop, the S&Ps quickly hit their high for the day and began to sink as the dollar and yields worked their way higher along with crude oil.

With about an hour to go, crude was on its highs of the day along with the dollar and yields, and the S&Ps were on their lows, and then we served a TACO on Truth Social after Trump posted that he had cancelled an attack on Iran that was schedule for tomorrow (Trump the Merciful is back?).

The S&Ps bounced like Pavlov's dog as crude oil, the dollar, and yields all backed off.

For the close, the S&Ps would go out back up near the mid-levels of the day with a loss of a freckle.

The dollar initially rallied with yields but then reversed in the afternoon on Trump's post to end down a touch per the DXY. Yields also reversed to end down a couple bps.

Commodities were mixed, while crude gave up a good chunk of its gains to end up about a percent.

BTC slumped 3 percent and continues to back off after failing at the 200 dma last week. MSTR dumped 6 percent.

Gold slipped to as low as $4530 overnight and then recovered to as high as $4585 as oil slipped on the hopeful headlines this morning. After reversing and sliding back to the overnight lows, the yellow metal then popped in the final hour of the equity session to go out back up around $4566 for a gain of a touch.

Silver similarly slumped overnight and then rebounded up into positive territory early on during the US session. After sliding with everything else as yields, oil, and the dollar all firmed, the white metal then rebounded in the final hour on Trump's post to go out back up near the highs with a gain of over a percent.

The GDX opened higher and then faded to a marginal new low for the move before then rebounding in the final hour along with everything else to go out off the lows but still down just a touch.

Crude oil is going to keep ratcheting higher regardless of war-on, war-off news, and that means yields and the dollar are headed higher too, which is going to pressure asset prices. The JGB market, in particular, has started crashing, which isn't a positive for much of anything.

With that said, I still think we're due for a bounce in the metals and GDX. Typically you will see a check back to the 5 dma at minimum after a beating like we saw on Friday, and you maybe even get a fill of Friday's gaps in GLD, SLV, and GDX. I'm not playing those bounces from the long side (except for maybe with some calls), but for those that want to, more power to you. A rebound could last anywhere from 2 to 5 days. I'm more interested in getting short after those rebounds have played out, so that's how I am approaching things.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: Flat.