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February 3, 2026
 
     
  Metals Rebound As Expected  
     
 

The S&Ps opened flat and then proceeded to tumble just over a percent, with crypto and tech in the lead to the downside.

After hitting a low with about two hours to go, the S&Ps managed to bounce to cut their loss to just under a percent for the close.

The dollar was mostly a little weaker, with the DXY losing a touch. Yields were virtually unchanged, and BTC managed to tumbled another 4 percent to a new low for the year. MSTR and other BTC derivatives were mostly lower too. I'm still watching MSTR closely for a potential purchase.

As expected, gold managed to rebound and picked up just over 6 percent after failing at just shy of $5000 intraday. Silver also rebounded and tacked on 6 percent too, although it was up over 11 percent on its highs.

The GDX also rebounded, and after gapping up big to roughly the 50 dma to print the high of the day, it reversed to fill the gap and then rebounded a little in the final couple hours to go out near the mid-levels of the day with a gain of over 4 percent. Once again, the GDX closed well below its 5 dma, which statistically speaking leaves the bears firmly in charge.

I still think we can see some more upside over the next couple days or so, with a failure around the 5 dma being likely before downside potentially resumes with a retest or an undercut of the recent lows.

My gold model hasn't updated yet, but I suspect it remained at neutral (check back later). My guess is we may get a Tier 1 SELL when this bounce tops out.

Positions: I left my equity shorts unchanged as well as my IBIT long. I remain flat gold and silver and GDX.

 
     
     
 
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