As expected, we got our "deal to make a deal" over the weekend between the US and Iran (whoopee!). This so-called MOU looks like a bunch of BS to me, but let's go with it. Peace in our time, and the Straits of Hormuz open up for business on Friday when the official signing place. Two months later, the first oil should be delivered to its destination, which will be long after tanks start registering empty. Don't be surprised if the "low" for oil's "deal" correction, which has been going on nonstop for two months every time Trump declared a deal to be close, was TODAY.

In any event, markets through a deal party overnight, with everything not nailed down rallying as the dollar slipped a little along with yields.

The S&Ps gapped up over a percent and rallied to a gain of 2 percent before eventually fading to end up 1.75%.

The dollar was initially weaker but then firmed all day along with crude oil from its overnight lows. Yields also firmed after initially moving lower.

BTC jumped 5 percent, and MSTR jumped 6 percent.

Commodities were mostly higher, but they faded from their best levels. Crude inversely saw it's low overnight and then firmed during the US session to end above where it had opened down overnight for a loss of just under 4 percent.

Gold gapped up overnight by nearly $100 to $4300 and traded up to as high as $4366 before reversing as the dollar, crude , and yields all firmed. For the close, the yellow metal would go out back down at $4309, or essentially where it opened overnight, for a gain of over 2 percent.

Silver similarly gapped up overnight to $69.5 and then faded back to go out just under $70 for a gain of over 3 percent.

The GDX gapped up nearly 7 percent and then surged to the 200 dma before reversing with the metals to go out back near the low of the day with a gain of 6.5%.

It didn't take a genius to see this sort of a party happening once this BS deal to make a deal was made over the weekend, but the far bigger question is what happens now that the "deal to make a deal" is done?

Crude supplies aren't going to arrive at market for about 6 weeks even under the most optimistic assumptions of a reopening of the straits. So, does crude take off now and take the dollar higher with it along with yields? That's my bet, and that's probably going to mean that the Fed is going to lean more hawkishly on Wed when Warsh takes the podium. That's going to be bad for asset prices, including the metals.

I was hoping that stocks would get flushed last week and set up a Fed that would coo on Wed, but this "deal" short circuited that, which means the Fed has no reason to be dovish on Wed.

Tonight we'll also get the BOJ, which is expected to follow the ECB and hike rates tonight. How will the dol/yen react that? That remains to be seen, but the yen acts bearish even after this deal.

So, we'll see what happens tomorrow, but if we do get an upside reversal in crude and a downside reversal in the metals, the question will be whether the metals can dig in at higher lows even as crude moves higher. Obviously, if the party continues and the metals keep ripping, upside takes care of itself, but given how stretched we are above the 5 dma in the metal and miners, some sort of pullback seems due even if we are headed higher.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC, and DBA.

Metals: I put ZSL and GDXD back out shortly after the open, and I added SLV 60 puts for Thurs for 21 cents and GDX 80 puts for Thurs for 27 cents.