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April 29, 2026
 
     
  The Word of the Day is NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens) Instead of TACO  
     
 

The S&Ps opened down a touch and began to slowly saw lower as crude oil slowly sawed its way higher.

Finally, at Fed time, we got the FOMC statement, where the only thing of note were the 4 dissents. One was for a cut like every other meeting (his name starts "M"), and then 3 others would wanted to remove the easing bias.

There was no real reaction to the FOMC, and PowPow proceeded to yap about his retirement and hanging on for a while as a governor.

Meanwhile, through all of that crude continued to slowly edge higher, and Brent would eventually go out with a gain of over 8 percent to a new closing high and just shy of taking out the spike highs.

The S&Ps managed to climb back up to near the open for the close to end virtually unchanged.

The dollar index rose a third of a percent and sawed higher with crude all day (as usual).

Yields also rose with crude, while commodities were mostly lower ex-crude. Platinum notably dumped for over 3 percent to a new low for the month.

BTC fell over a percent, and MSTR slumped 5 percent.

Gold slumped to as low as $4512 shortly after the US open to mark its low for the day. Following a bounce and a dip back to $4520 shortly after the FOMC, the metal then bounced into the close to go out back up near $4543 with a loss of over a percent to a new low for the month.

Silver similarly slumped, but unlike gold, it hit its low for the day shortly after the FOMC at just under $71. It also bounced, but it would end near the lower levels of the day at $71.32 for a loss of over 2 percent and right on the trendline support that has been providing bounces since the recent peak on April 17th.

The GDX gapped down again and slowly slipped all day to go out near the lower levels of the day with a loss of over 2 percent to a new low for the month.

I still worry about distressed sellers (oil producers and consumers) using the metals as a source of funds along with a buyer strike due to the inflation implications of the oil spike and the "theory" (for now) that central banks will stand firm against that inflation, which is hard to argue with as long as the spoos are just a day off an all-timer. What's there to be afraid of?

Crude oil had an interesting close, which once again begs the question: Does somebody know something? Or is it just the cogs of supply and demand slowly turning and ratcheting prices higher now that words of "hope" no longer seem to push prices down. We shall see...

My gold model remained at neutral but could produce a BUY in as little as 2 to 3 days like we saw back on the March low.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Long IBIT and DBA, which made another new high today. Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. I also added SLV 60 puts for Friday for an average of 15 cents.

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

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