Banks and the bond market were closed for Veterans Day, but the equity market was open, and the S&Ps opened higher by about half a percent.

From there, we rallied up to a high in the early afternoon of gain of nearly 2 percent, but we slipped from that peak in the remaining couple hours of the session to go out with a gain of just over a percent. The SOX jumped over 5 percent, and the QQQ rose over 2 percent, as we continue to see oversold bounces in AI.

The dollar soared vs. other paper for no particular reason and without the fixed income market even being open, which was a little odd. In any event, the DXY surged over half a percent and back to its spike high on October 14th.

Commodities were mostly higher once again, except for crude, which slipped a touch on continued chatter about an Iran deal as well as potentially a truce between Russia and Ukraine.

Gold traded up to as high as $4060 overnight for no particular reason but then backed off as the dollar began to rip. During the US open, the metal would then slip further and eventually went negative and fell to a low of around $3985, which is basically where it went out with a loss of over a percent to make a new low for the week.

Silver rallied even stronger than gold and popped about 3 percent to as high as over $53 before it too reversed and eventually tumbled to as low as 51.70, which was also where it closed, to cut its gain to only a third of a percent at the close.

The GDX opened up a touch and then also reversed to go out near the lows with a loss of over a percent.

Shorts in the US tend to tell the metals as the dollar rallies, which is what I suspect we saw again today, but as we saw overnight last night, those shorts can get easily squeezed too.

My hunch is that the market is sniffing out some sort of Iran deal that's going to send oil a lot lower, which will be the excuse for the dollar to reverse and for the metals to break out above last week's highs. But in the meantime, they may be trapped in the range they've been in since last week.

The metals and GDX also spent a second day below the 5 dma today, which isn't great, and that's pretty much the limit if this is just a head fake and not a change in trend.

Supporting that head fake thesis is also the fact that my gold model moved back to a Tier 3 BUY today, and it hasn't been profitable to be short during a Tier 3 BUY, which would imply that trend remains up given where we are relative to the recent low.

My gold model moved to a Tier 3 BUY, which was last seen on 10/30, 11/2, and 11/3. Buying on any of those days obviously worked and are still working. And I suspect the same will be the case with the current signal as well. Recall the prior pattern throughout October was to see a Tier 3 BUY on a new low, which then resulted in a bounce back to the 5 dma, where my model moved back to neutral, and then we slumped again to new lows, where the cycle started over again. That's not happening anymore, which should be troubling for anyone looking to be bearish.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, BLDR, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNY. Long SLV 49 calls for Friday and I added some more for 7 cents to drop my average to 8 cents from 10 cents.