The S&Ps opened up a touch once again, and just like the prior 10 days, we were off to see the wizard amidst an avalanche of "we're close to a deal" and "the straits will open soon" headlines.

For the close the S&Ps would go out on the highs of the day with a gain of nearly a percent to a new all-timer for an 11th straight day to the upside. Again, it seems that the worst oil shock ever is perhaps the most bullish thing ever for stocks... or is it?

The key difference between today and those prior 10 days was that oil stopped going down on the same headlines and basically treaded water with a loss of only half a percent.

Yields also rose, which was different, and the dollar was flat, which was also different. BTC edged up half a percent.

Gold traded up slightly to as high as $4868 and then reversed and eventually collapsed during the US session for no apparent reason to as low as $4788, which was essentially where it would end the day after a bounce to go out on the worst levels of the session with a loss of over a percent. That reversal now threatens to once again break down from the bearish rising wedge that the metal has been in since the March low.

Silver similarly traded up to a new high for the move overnight but then reversed and would go out near its lows at just under $79 for a loss of a third of a percent. I will say this about silver. It needs to remain above $78 because any move back below that level will set up a "first way, wrong way" slide from yesterday's pop outside of the rising wedge it's in. Drawn differently, silver still remains in its bear flag after testing the top of it yesterday and today.

The GDX opened down a touch and basically slipped all day to go out on the lows with a loss of 3 percent and closed back BELOW the 5 dma for the first time since March 27th, which statistically puts the bears back in charge. Now, this could be a one-day head fake, which is common, but if that's the case then the GDX should recover the 5 dma immediately tomorrow.

If real world supply and demand actually matter, which they do, then words and hopes have probably pushed crude oil as low as it can go at this point. That means that oil may now rise even as doves fly from out of Trump's butt after he makes some "deal" with Iran. And it's that rally that will probably really spook people once they realize that Trump can't wave his hands and make the markets dance to his tune anymore, especially if yields keep creeping higher.

I still believe the odds of the metals being used as a source of liquidity are high both by nation states in order to purchase crude/replace revenue from crude sales as well as potential spillover selling if by some miracle the meltup in equities suddenly ends Wile E. Coyote style. The fact that open interest in gold still isn't rising and sits near multiyear lows also suggests that the market is concerned about a cash raise as well.

My gold model remained at neutral.

I left my shorts unchanged in SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM, but I doubled XHB and BLDR given that they've had a nice bounce over the past couple weeks. Their slides appeared to resume today. I also remain long IBIT and DBA.

I put GDXD and ZSL back out this morning on the open as well as bought SLV 68 puts for Friday for 18 cents.