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April 30, 2026
 
     
  Month-End Countertrend Moves Appear  
     
 

Crude oil backed off a couple bucks overnight, and that had the S&Ps and everything else bid up before the open.

The S&Ps opened up a touch, and a brief downdraft, month-end buyers flooded in, and we were off to the races. The remainder of the session was a nonstop meltup that sent the S&Ps out on the very best levels of the session with a gain of a percent to a new all-timer.

The dollar was weaker, with the DXY slumping a percent. Most of that decline was in reaction to 2 percent move in the yen after the BOJ intervened to prop it up overnight.

Yields were a little lower, and commodities were mostly higher, ex-oil, which backed off over a percent.

BTC was up a percent. MSTR rose 5 percent.

Gold rallied overnight as crude slipped and rose to as high as $4644. After backing off from that high during the US session, the metal would go out back at $4620 for a gain of over a percent.

Silver similarly rallied overnight up to as high as $74 and then backed off a little during the US session to end just under $74 for a gain of nearly 3 percent. That close also put silver back at the top of the downward sloping trading channel it has been in since the April 17th high.

The GDX gapped up and printed the high for the day within minutes that failed to even get back to the 5 dma. After backing off, the GDX then firmed off those lows to go out in the middle of the day's range with a gain of nearly 3 percent.

There was no new news on the Iran front overnight, and my guess is that Trump is merely biding time at this point before he resumes air strikes.

Other than stocks, which go up every day, everything else seemed to receive a month-end counter-trend move. So, we'll if the trends resume on May 1st tomorrow.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDY, XHB, and BLDR. Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: Long ZSL and GDXD, and I added the SLV 64 puts for tomorrow for 14 cents because my 60s for tomorrow are likely too far away at this point.

 
     
     
 
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