The S&Ps opened up about half a percent despite crude rebounding about a percent after Israel and Iran struck each other despite the "ceasefire." Crude was even higher before the equity open, but Trump came to the rescue and kept repeating that a deal was close and that he had "told" Israel to stop attacking Iran.

The S&Ps spent the rest of the session slowly working lower from that open to eventually go out on the lows of the day but with a gain of half a percent. The SOX rebounded over 5 percent but that failed to erase Friday's beating and looks like a dead cat before another plunge.

The dollar was mixed, with the DXY ending virtually unchanged. Yields were a little higher once again, although the curve steepened a little this time.

BTC rebounded 5 percent to recover the Feb low and then some, and MSTR picked up 6 percent after never making a new low with BTC on Friday. We'll see if last week's low holds in the coming days.

Commodities were mixed. Copper rebounded a percent, but platinum continued to slide and fell a percent to another new low for the move.

Gold slumped to as low as $4273 overnight for a new low for the slide, but from that low the metal then began to firm and eventually traded up into positive territory and to as high as $4345 during the US session before backing off to $4330 for the close to end up a quarter of a percent.

Silver plunged to nearly $66 overnight and then also rebounded to nearly $69 during the US session before slipping into the close to end closer to $68 for a gain of a freckle.

The GDX opened a little higher and drifted sideways to down with the S&Ps to eventually go out on the lows of the day and back in negative territory with a loss of just a touch.

With gold, silver, and GDX all still well below the 5 dma, the bears remain in charge, but a reaction back to that falling 5 dma is typical even when prices are in a downtrend unless things are really heavy. The jury is still out on that in my view, but whether we get a bigger bounce or not, I still expect the March lows to be taken out and lead to some sort of puke. The GDX has already taken out that March low and closed below the March intraday low today. Silver is still hanging around at its 200 dma, and gold looks to be headed for a test of its March low at $4100. Granted, a further bounce could develop, but if it doesn't, I fear downside acceleration could develop rather quickly.

The hot CPI and PPI data on Wed and Thurs are going play well into the narrative that the Fed needs to tighten later this year in order to counter the inflationary pressures that are building, and another pop in crude simply because it won't go down is going to add to that cocktail as well.

Again, I don't think the Fed will be tightening at all, and they may even ease. However, it's perception of the future (for right or wrong) that shapes short-term trading and for the moment, the mob believes the hawkish fantasy. My guess is it will take Warsh telling people in no uncertain terms next week that a hike is NOT coming. But until then, this narrative will continue to gain traction, because let's face it, the Fed probably should be tightening.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: I put GDXD and ZSL back out, and I also bought the SLV 57 puts for Friday in the last hour for an average of 21 cents. I probably should have waited until tomorrow to buy these puts in order to let some more time bleed off, but I wanted to get them on the sheets just in case things begin to fall apart again faster than I am anticipating.