The S&Ps opened down a touch after crude rallied overnight by a couple percent to a new high for the move in the wake of more US/Iran fighting over the 3-day weekend.

After sliding to a loss of about half a percent, there was a bounce, and then we eventually slumped back to the lows for the close to go out with a loss of over half a percent.

The dollar was a touch weaker on top of more weakness yesterday, with the dol/yen interestingly slumping to a new 7-month low. That dollar weakness also occurred despite a firmer oil price, which is a slightly different wrinkle. I suspect that's because of the impending "bazooka" that Bessent will fire tomorrow as he begins his bond buying scheme, but we shall see.

BTC slipped 2 percent.

Yields edged higher and continue to be sticky near the highs in the long end, which is another reason that Bessent may "bring his bigger boat" when the first buyback occurs tomorrow. Recall that last month's announcement was merely the minimum increase in buying that might occur. If Bessent is going to move the needle, he needs to go big or go home.

Commodities were mostly higher, with crude picking up over 2 percent to a new high for the move since the July low and breaking out from what looks like a giant bullish cup and handle on the charts.

Copper also notably popped a percent to just shy of a new all-timer, while FCX launched 6 percent to just shy of a new all-timer and COPX over 4 percent to just shy of a new all-timer. Say that 3 times real fast.

Gold slumped 2 percent and went out on the lows at $4360, while silver slipped less than a percent and also went out on the lows at $65.65. The silver/gold ratio interestingly did close at a new high for the move since the July low.

The GDX slipped just under a percent and also closed near the lows of the day, but once again it managed to close above the 5 dma, which means the bulls remain in charge from a purely statistical point of view. Silver also closed above this key moving average again.

As I mentioned above, I suspect Bessent is going to pull out all the stops tomorrow in order to try and push down yields, and the cost is going to be the dollar. In theory, that should be bullish for the metals and miners.

We get the PPI on Thursday and the CPI on Friday, but I doubt either of these data points will give us a definitive decision on next week's FOMC. So, those data points are going to essentially be nonevents at the end of the day even though the press is going to pump them as the most important data points "ever" or some nonsense. Will the Fed hike next week with data that isn't definitive? I doubt it.

My gold model remained at neutral, but the HGNSI notably tanked to single digits for the first time since going positive after month's of being negative back in early August, which is interesting especially in light of the GDX/GLD ratio making a new 12-year high intraday today.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC, and DBA.

Metals: Long GDXU and AGQ in sizeola, and I added SLV 61.5 calls for tomorrow today for an average of 8 cents.