The powwow between the Gulf states and Iran was cancelled due to more attacks against Saudi's pipeline over the weekend, and that had crude up about 4 percent and back at last week's highs. Yields also pushed back to last week's highs, and the dollar was firmer. That cocktail had the S&Ps and metals all lower ahead of the open.

The S&Ps opened down about a percent, and then around mid-morning, Trump posted on truth social (wait for it...) that Iran was dying for a deal again. I'm not sure who is dumb enough to believe this at this point other than algos, but the the S&Ps jumped as crude, yields, and the dollar all came in. The metals also popped.

After cutting their losses to about a third of a percent, the rally in the S&Ps fell apart, and we proceeded to leak again into the close as yields, the dollar, and crude all firmed back up again.

For the close, the S&Ps would go out in the middle of the day's range with a loss of about half a percent.

The dollar was higher across the board, with the DXY being up about a percent on its highs but giving some of that back to only end up half a percent in the wake of Trump's BS post.

Yields were higher, and the 10yr yield briefly tested its 2023 high at just over 5% before backing off on the Trump BS.

BTC added over 2 percent and curiously didn't trade like a liquidity widget for once. MSTR popped 5 percent.

Commodities were mostly lower, except for crude which had its gains cut in half in the wake of Trump's BS.

Gold and silver tumbled overnight and found their lows shortly after the open well below the necklines of their respective H&S patterns but also right around their 50 dma on a spot basis, which appeared to attract some buying interest.

Both metals proceeded to bounce off the 5 dma and then got a further pop off of Trump's BS post as the dollar, crude, and yields backed off.

Like equities though, the metals rolled over in the afternoon and would go out back near the lower levels of the day with a loss of over a percent and over 2 percent respectively.

The GDX gapped down to a new low for the move since the August high and also bounced, but it likewise faded to go out back near the middle of the day's range with a loss of over 3 percent.

Today was another perfect example of the fact that oil and yields are driving the selling in the metals and not fear of a rate hike on Wed.

My bet is the 10yr is going to take out 5% if oil rallies again overnight, and that may the trigger for the H&S tops in silver and gold to execute (both closed below their respective necklines today).

If so, that may give us enough of a flush to then set up a rally coming out of the Fed's rate hike on Wed. We'll just have to see, but that's one potential road map that I am working with.

The S&Ps also look vulnerable after today's decline and could break fairly big to the downside if yields and crude push higher again tomorrow.

My gold model remained at neutral but could trigger a Tier 3 BUY as soon as tomorrow if the metals and miners get spanked tomorrow.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC, and DBA.

Metals: Long SLV 55 puts for Wed.