WTI spiked up to nearly $120 overnight and then began to steadily come in after a headline hit that the G7 was considering a joint release of their SPRs.

After a video call was held this morning to discuss the matter, no decision was made, but crude kept sliding.

The S&Ps also opened down a couple percent to a new low for the move and immediately turned and began to climb as oil fell.

Gold and silver also opened down and began to climb with the S&Ps as the dollar weakened and yields slipped.

After rallying back to nearly the unchanged mark with about an hour to go, Trump then hit the tape after reportedly telling a CBS reporter that "the war could be over soon."

That headline sent the S&Ps vertical and into positive territory to the tune of a percent, which is roughly where they went out. Crude oil tumbled further and slumped to as low as $84 to be down 7 percent after having been up nearly 40%.

Gold and silver also rallied into the close, although gold couldn't get green like silver did.

Commodities in general firmed, with copper and platinum both recovering from their overnight losses. The GCC and DJP, however, both slumped due to crude's losses.

BTC was firm all day and ended up 5 percent. MSTR also rallied over 4 percent.

Gold slumped to as low as $5014 overnight and then recovered back to $5136 as crude oil reversed from its highs on the back of the SPR headlines. Silver also tumbled about 5 percent before reversing to the upside with gold.

Once the US session began, both metals continued to recover, with silver out in the lead. Silver would eventually go green and closed up 3 percent, while gold would go out on its highs at $5138 with a loss of just a touch.

GDX opened down at Friday's low and proceeded to slump about 4 percent on the lows, but as the S&Ps began to rally along with everything else, the GDX began to rally too. By the close, the GDX would go out on the highs with a gain of just over a percent. However, the GDX failed to recover its 5 dma, which means the bears are still in charge. Volume on the reversal was also lacking.

So, if Trump has declared the war is over, can we all go back to chasing everything not nailed down, including gold and silver?

I don't think it's that easy.

First of all, production and transportation of oil, LNG, refined products, fertilizer, and other chemicals will not go back to their pre-war levels on "Tuesday." Secondly, we don't know if Iran will agree to call it quits simply because Trump says so.

But let's assume Iran plays ball, prices for all of the above are still going to remain high, especially for refined products. Is that enough to cause a global recession? I guess the market will tell us.

Specifically regarding precious metals, the question now is also how many buyers were "war buyers" that were betting on an inflationary disaster? If the war is now declared to be over, do these people now turn sellers of precious metals? After all, commodity basket buying that has been supported by oil will now turn into a headwind rather than the tailwind it had been.

I joked today with a friend that I knew some gold bulls that were jubilant when the war started, which is true, but that they then quickly got angry when gold topped the Monday after the war began. Now those same guys are cheering for the war to end and expecting a meltup in gold. It just goes to show you that when somebody is long, they will argue for it to go higher no matter what the circumstances are. And to be fair, that's what happens during a bull move. All arguments for higher prices "work." The same can be said during corrections and bear markets too though, where no bullish theory seems to work.

If the market does indeed declare the war to be "over," then I'd expect war buyers to dump their positions. Thus, the irony may be that just as rooting for a war turned out to be not as positive for the metals as bulls had hoped, rooting for it to end isn't going to be positive either. That's just the way it works when things are undergoing a correction.

Remember, a lot of the run up in gold and silver since January was probably those "in the know" front running the war, just as they did in the oil stocks. That's not to say that an end to the war means there's no reason to own the metals, because that's not the case. And I still just think we're looking at a correction and not a long-lasting top, but you can't have your cake and eat it too. Either guys were long for a war rally, but there was simply too much overhead supply due to the blowoff that had preceded the war based on buying from the inside crowd that knew the war was coming. Those guys will now turn sellers. Or, for the first time in my career, war was "bad" for gold somehow?

My gold model just barely moved back to neutral.

Positions: I left my equity shorts unchanged. Note BLDR made another new 52-week low before bouncing to end up 2 percent. I'm also still lugging IBIT around.

I remain long GDXD, and I added ZSL (ultrashort silver) this afternoon and bought SLV 68 puts for Wed for 16 cents.