The S&Ps opened up a touch and initially tried to rally, but as the chips and Qs began to fall apart, the S&Ps eventually followed them lower.

The remainder of the session was spent slowly fumbling lower until a sharp bounce appeared in the closing minutes to cut the loss on the day to just a touch in the S&Ps. That bounce would then continue during the runoff in the futures after MU (the flying pig) reported, and the initial reaction was positive.

The dollar was mostly firmer again, with the DXY rallying another touch to just shy of its May 2025 high. The dol/yen continues to hover near its 2024 high. Will the BOJ whack it?

Yields were also lower, but most of the decline was once again in the long end, as the curve continues to flatten. Tomorrow's PCE data could further exacerbate this flattening if a "hot" number is perceived as making Warsh even more hawkish. Note the rips in BLDR and XHB today (i.e. - people are betting on lower mortgage rates because tough guy Warsh is going to make inflation his bitch as well as this stupid housing bill).

Again, I don't believe Warsh is going to be as tough as people think, but that's where the mob's head is right now. If stocks finally turn over, which may be in process, we'll see how tough he is.

BTC tanked another 4 percent to a new 52-week low, and MSTR vomited 9 percent to a new 52-week low. These charts continue to be a crime scene, although the precious metals are right on their heels in the crime scene department.

Commodities were clubbed again, with the DJP bberg commodity index ETF tanking another 2 percent to its 200 EMA (next stop the 200 dma, which is 2 percent away). Platinum notably tanked 4 percent to a new low for the move, and copper fell over 2 percent to a new low for the week.

Gold was hammered once again and collapsed below its prior June low to as low as $3964 before a bounce took hold that carried it back up to $4040, where more sellers were waiting. From there, the rally fell apart, and the metal collapsed to a new low for the day of $3960 before bouncing in the remaining couple hours to go out back at $3998 for a loss of 3 percent.

Silver was hit even harder and plunged below its March low to as low as 58. Following a bounce with gold, silver then imploded to as low as 55.5. A bounce also appeared in the white metal over the remaining two hours of the equity session to carry it back up to $57 for a loss of 7 percent.

The GDX gapped down to just shy of its early June low and then bounced to with the metals to nearly fill the gap. As the bounce in the metals fell apart, the bounce in the GDX fell apart too, and the GDX would eventually collapse to within a few pennies of its early June low and never really got a lift from the afternoon bounce in the metals. What did eventually produce a bounce, however, in the closing minutes was the rebound in the S&Ps. For the close, the GDX would go out off the worst levels but still with a loss of 4 percent.

Once again the GDX produced an inverted hanging man, which could be a sign of a reversal forming. However, as was the case yesterday, the action tomorrow needs to confirm and produce upside.

With gold, silver, and platinum all now shattering their June lows, an upside reversal now becomes more problematic. The continued rally in the dollar also doesn't help.

With the GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, HUI, and XAU all clinging to their June lows by their fingernails despite the metals all smoking those lows, the question now is whether that's a sign of strength because the mining longs know the metals will soon reverse. Or, is it more a sign of complacency and overconfidence that will be shattered if the metals don't rally tomorrow. I must admit after today's action and the fact that the strength in the miners last week was "wrong" that I'm a little worried about the latter being the case. Hopefully, I'm wrong about that.

You do have a potentially bullish RSI divergence in gold in the daily (but it simply goes away if gold slides again tomorrow), although no such divergence exists in silver. As you will see below, I flattened out during the bounce after the equity open because when a buy signal from my model gets run over by aggressive selling like this, which is rare, it typically means something really ugly is underway. With all the metals and GDX below the 200 dma on top of that, things can get even uglier in a hurry.

Again, sometimes the low probability event happens, and when it does, it's normally explosive. Or in this case, it's more "implosionary" I guess.

Hopefully, tomorrow's PCE data will be an excuse for a rally in the metals, but if that rally doesn't appear, I'm more concerned about what happens to the miners at this point as it potentially dawns on longs that the quick recovery everyone was looking for (myself included) fails to appear. As long as the metals and GDX remain below their 5 dma's, the bears remain in charge.

You can often get an outsized aftershock effect in the miners if the metals lead the way to the downside. The same works on the upside too, and we saw this to some extent as the metals lead the miners up back in Q4 of 2025.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the miners have been benefiting from a stock market tailwind from equities melting up too. If that changes, and the H&S tops in the SPY and QQQ suggest it may be changing, that will add downside pressure. Note the breakdowns in the XME and COPX today along those lines as well.

My gold model remained on a Tier 3 BUY for a fourth session, but the buy signal was pretty much trounced by sellers. This signal will work eventually, but if it's after the metals fall another 10 percent, it's obviously not very helpful. Again, sometimes the low probability event happens.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC. These longs are long-term holds. If I was trading them like I do the metals and miners, I would have punted them long ago, because they show no sign of turning yet.

Metals: I flattened out on the bounce after the equity open and went home in cash to lick my wounds. Tomorrow is a new day.