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June 16, 2026
 
     
  Warsh On Deck  
     
 

The S&Ps opened flat and then began to slide, with the chips and tech in the lead to the downside. We would pretty much slide for the rest of the day and went out on the lows with a loss of over half a percent. The SOX, however, was belted for 6 percent, and the QQQ lost 2 percent. Is that a double top I smell in equities?

The dollar was mixed, with the DXY ending down a freckle. The dol/yen was notably quiet and only rose a freckle in the wake of the BOJ's 25 bp hike overnight. Yield were off a couple bps.

BTC slipped over a percent, and MSTR dumped 6 percent.

Commodities were mixed, although crude dumped another 5 percent. At some point here soon, I still believe crude is going to leap for absolutely no reason. It's supply and demand 101; supply has not increased and demand remains unchanged due to the price not skyrocketing. Sellers are getting a little out over their skis.

Gold traded up to as high as $4354 overnight (or about $15 shy of yesterday's intraday high) and then faded to under $4320 in the US before firming back up to $4331 for a gain of just a touch.

Silver acted similarly and also traded up to just shy of yesterday's high before reversing to end back at $70 and with a loss of a hair.

The GDX opened inside of yesterday's range and then squirted up over the 200 dma to go out near the highs of the day and just over the 200 dma for the first time since June 4th for a gain of over 2 percent. I would note, however, that the GDX has a rather large negative RSI divergence on the hourly charts that suggests a sudden reversal is possible tomorrow.

With equities rolling over today, I wonder if the metals may join the downside party tomorrow, perhaps because Warsh is a little more hawkish than people have bargained for?

We shall see...

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC, and DBA.

Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. Long SLV 60 puts for thurs, and I added some 61 puts for 29 cents too. Long GDX 80 puts for Thursday, and I added more of these for 7 cents today.

 
     
     
 
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