The KOSPI slumped 4 percent and fell back to its neckline of its 6 month H&S top overnight.

That slide set up a lower open in the S&Ps with the QQQ and SOX in the lead to the downside, which was also pressuring the dollar and yields lower. Metals were firmer but not by much. Crude was up a couple percent to nearly $103 WTI.

After opening down a touch in the S&Ps, we began to firm, and then the rally accelerated and even dragged up the QQQ and SOX after headline chatter began about a "deal," which in turn sent crude tumbling back to as low as $97.

That slide in oil also pulled down yields and the dollar, and both silver and gold popped a little as well (more on that below).

Crude hit its low around mid-morning, and the S&Ps peaked around the same time. From there, we backed off the highs and went into a sideways chop that lasted for the rest of the day to send us out with a gain of just a touch. The QQQ would lose a hair, and the SOX lost a touch.

The dollar was mostly a little weaker, with the DXY losin a touch after printing as low as 101.50 before bouncing. A break back below the June/July high of 101.50 would likely lead to a much larger decline in the coming days if that level gives way. BTC rose a percent.

Yields were lower, with the curve flattening slightly.

Commodities were mostly higher except for crude, which rebounded from its lows to only end down a touch and in the middle of the day's range.

Gold squirted up to as high as $4155 before rolling over and making a roundtrip back to $4124 after crude recovered. That was also roughly where the metal closed with a loss of half a percent.

Silver fared better and popped through its downtrend since September to a new high for the move and to just over $58.50 before peaking as crude, yields, and the dollar all bottomed together. For the close, silver would slump back to roughly $58 to end near the middle of the day's range with a gain of over a percent but back below its downtrend. Silver did, however, recover the 5 dma for the first time since last week's low.

The GDX opened down and then ripped up to its downtrend since August and the 20 dma but failed again and then reversed with the metals to go out near the lower to mid-levels of the day with and with a loss of half a percent. Thanks to a slide in the final 10 minutes of the session, the GDX would also go out 4 pennies below its 5 dma, but I suspect that's a one-day head fake.

Whether crude continues to tumble or the AI trade takes another down leg tonight in the form of the KOSPI breaking wide open, the setup is there for yields and the dollar to tumble again, which should put a bid under the metals and perhaps finally push silver and GDX through their downtrends and pop gold over $4200. In other words, the "why" doesn't matter, but it's clear that a decline in yields and the dollar is what metals bulls want to see.

Anything less than that is just more marking time.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, IBIT and BLDR.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNY. Long GLD 388 calls for tomorrow, and I also added some SLV 385 calls for tomorrow for 8 cents. I added some SLV 53 calls for tomorrow for 7 cents too.