The S&Ps opened flat and basically chopped sideways all day to go out pretty much where they began the day near the unchanged mark. The chips and QQQ on the other hand began the day down a percent or so but recovered after the Fed's John Williams said he didn't see much broad inflation other than some coming from AI and oil.

The dollar was weaker across the board right out of the gate and softened a touch more on Williams' comments. The DXY ended down a third of a percent. BTC rose half a percent.

Yields fell in the long end by a couple bps while the 2yr was basically unchanged, which flattened the curve slightly. The XLU rose over half a percent to a new high for the move and continues to point to lower yields. Even more interesting was that yields fell today despite crude gaining over a percent to a new high for the week.

Commodities were mostly a little lower except for crude as I alluded to above.

Gold and silver began the day up a touch and then slumped once the US session got underway. Both bounced from their lows of the day on Willams' comments but then gave some of that bounce back into the close to end down a touch in the case of gold and over a percent and a half in the case of silver.

The GDX opened higher but then reversed and would recover about half its losses from its low in the morning and also recovered the 5 dma. However, a closing dump would send the GDX out back below the 5 dma by about 20 cents and with a loss of a percent and a half.

Gold was the only thing to close above the 5 dma, while silver and GDX both ended below it. Again, this is a statistical phenomenon and nothing more but nothing good tends to happen below the 5 dma except when its a one or two day head fake within an uptrend. We have a 5 day uptrend in place. So, this could be a head fake, and that's the way I am leaning at the moment. But it's not the way I like to see things close ahead of a data point like the CPI tomorrow.

Speaking of which, we'll get the CPI in the AM, and the setup is there after Williams repeated again that he "loves us long time" for yields and the dollar to plunge, which should in turn push the metals and GDX to new highs for the move after making higher lows today vs last week's nadir.

We shall see, but things need to turn. If they don't, it's going to be trouble.

My gold model likely remained at neutral but I don't have all my data in yet.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, and IBIT.

Metals: Long GDXU and AGQ and SLV 57 calls for tomorrow. I also added some SLV 56 calls for tomorrow today for 4 pennies.