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October 19, 2026
 
     
  Even Dead Cats Bounce  
     
 

The KOSPI bounced a couple percent overnight, and that put a bid in the US futures and eventually translated into a bounce of half a percent in the S&Ps and a bounce of over a percent in the QQQ and the SOX.

Even dead cats bounce, so I'm not surprised the AI trash did after the SOX had fallen for a record 9 straight sessions.

The dollar bounced as well, with the DXY adding a touch after yields also bounced. AI up = dollar and yields up.

Commodities were mixed, with crude falling over a percent.

Gold backed off half a percent, while silver started higher early on but then backed off to nearly unchanged.

The GDX slipped and lost over a percent, but it once again closed above the 5 dma, which leaves the bulls firmly in charge despite the deceiving action.

If AI trash resumes its slide tonight in South Korea, I think we'll see yields and the dollar plunge again, which is what gold buyers want to see.

$4200 is still the magic number for gold to take out in order to unleash upside and push the GDX through its downtrend and silver back above last week's highs.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, IBIT, and BLDR.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, SHNY. I also bought some GLD 388 calls for Wed for 20 cents.

 
     
     
 
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