As everyone knows, the jobs data was a stinker and came in at just 29,000 new nonfarm payrolls vs a 85,000 consensus. Prior months were revised down too. The reaction in the markets was to further reduce the odds of a rate hike in October as well as in December. But things got a little weird after that...

Initially, the S&Ps popped about a percent. Yields fell, especially in the short end. The dollar slumped, and the metals popped. All of that would then change shortly after that as crude rallied back from initially being down about 4 percent on reports that the EU would release more oil and diesel reserves, or at least that's the only apparent catalyst that I could detect.

The S&Ps opened up about a percent and slumped back to nearly unchanged as crude began to firm back up. Yields also turned higher around the same time, and the dollar recovered, which weighed on the metals.

After the initial plunge, the S&Ps recovered back to the mid-levels of the day and proceeded to chop sideways for the rest of the session to go out with a gain of just over half a percent. The QQQ made a new all-timer.

The dollar was mostly a little weaker, but it recovered from its initial lows on the jobs data. BTC lost half a percent.

Yields moved higher all across the curve, but made lower highs relative to their peaks that were set on Thursday.

Commodities were mostly lower, including crude, which fell 2 percent. Although it was even lower early on as I alluded to above.

Gold and silver initially popped on the jobs data, but then failed and reversed as yields and the dollar recovered. Silver, in particular, collapsed to a new low for the week before rebounding to go out back above those prior lows. Gold held up a little better relative to its lows but similarly acted poorly. For the close, gold would go out at $4142 for a loss of over half a percent, while silver would end just over $60 and also with a loss of half a percent.

The GDX opened higher but then sank with the metals before then recovering most of its losses to end up over a percent and just pennies from recovering its 5 dma.

As I noted on Thursday, one-day divergences between the miners and metals are statistically random when it comes to predicting the following day's action, and just as Thursday's bearish divergence between the GDX and the metals didn't tell us anything, I don't take any comfort from today's positive divergence either.

With the metals and GDX all once again closing below the 5 dma, the bears remain statistically in charge. However, we do now have a two day positive RSI divergence developing in both silver and GDX. Gold doesn't have the same divergence, but that may develop on Sunday night if the bears try to take out this week's low down around $4111, which wouldn't surprise me.

Like we saw with silver though, I suspect any undercut of the lows is going to be quickly bought in gold. Since last Monday's decline, both the metals and GDX have largely gone sideways as short interest (gold open interest actually rose on Friday) has built amidst extremely bearish sentiment (the DSI for both metals is nearly back to its lows for the year that were seen in July and the HGNSI is heavily negative. Despite Friday's disappointing session, I still believe we're building a small base to pivot off of to the upside as yields likely begin to come in.

Again though, the first sign that this view is correct must be a recovery of the 5 dma by both the metals and GDX.

My gold model remained on a Tier 3 BUY for a 5th session. Even if you're bearish, you want to see a bounce in price and my model move back to neutral before looking for another leg to the downside.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, DBA, and STRC.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, SHNY. I also added some SLV 56 calls for Monday for 6 cents.