Yields pushed higher again overnight, and by the time we rolled around to the US open, yields in the long end had basically reversed all of the drop we saw in the wake of yesterday's Treasury stunt. The dollar also firmed a little overnight.

The S&Ps opened down about half a percent, and after a brief bounce, we began to saw our way lower. The remainder of the session was a nonstop slide that sent the S&Ps out on the worst levels of the day with a loss of nearly a percent.

The dollar was mostly a little firmer, with the DXY picking up a touch. Yields moved higher, with the 10yr reversing all of yesterday's move and moving back to 4.7%. As I mentioned yesterday, I was doubtful this duration shifting stunt was going to work, and in just 24 hours, the market already seems to be calling BS.

BTC jumped over 6 percent, as it continues to make the measured move out of its inverted H&S on the charts.

Commodities were mostly lower, although crude oil added over 2 percent.

Gold dipped to as low as $4450 ahead of the US open and then eventually climbed up into barely positive territory and to as high as $4540 after Bessent tried a little open mouth policy and threatened to increase the buyback by even more. As I alluded to above, bonds were less impressed, and as yields moved back to yesterday's highs, the yellow metal slipped to go out back at $4519 but still gained a touch.

Silver similarly weakened ahead of the US open and then surged to a new high for the week and to as high as $69 and just over the 100 dma before backing off to go out back below that MA at $68 for a gain of nearly 3 percent.

The GDX opened down a touch and then surged to a new high for the week. After peaking in the AM with the metals, the GDX then chopped sideways for the rest of the day near the highs to go eventually go out just off the best levels of the day and with a gain of over 2 percent.

We still may get a push into Friday in the metals, but this rally is beginning to look a little tired. It's been a huge move since the beginning the of the month, and with yields not dancing to Bessent's drum, it could be time for a setback in the metals and miners. As you will read below, my model is very close to a Tier 1 SELL, which is good for a pullback typically even in a strong uptrend.

The only thing that's really going to push yields lower is the Fed (although it will be at the cost of the dollar), and the Fed may have an opportunity to hint at that next Friday at Jackson Hole, but between here and there, I suspect the bond market is going to continue to test the resolve of central planners and continue to push yields up, which is going to likely rattle markets and trigger some selling pretty much everywhere, including in the metals.

My gold model hasn't updated yet, but as I noted to subscribers in an Intraday Comment today, it's very close to a T1 SELL.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: I sold my SLV 63 calls for tomorrow's expir for 40 cents today for roughly a triple, and I took the profits and bought the SLV 60 puts for tomorrow for 10 cents. The metals, and especially silver, have tended to stumble on Friday's after a strong move earlier in the week since this rally began 3 weeks ago, and it wouldn't surprise me if after testing the 100 dma today we don't see a reaction down to backtest the 200 ema from above tomorrow, which could set up a weekly close in the middle of the week's range. We shall see. This isn't a huge bet, but the odds favor it in my view.