Yields, oil, and the dollar all pushed higher overnight, and that once again pressured asset prices, which set up a lower open for the S&Ps.

The S&Ps dumped to a mid-morning low as yields and the dollar hit their highs for the day. From there, we began a slow grind higher in the S&Ps that eventually topped out in mid-afternoon after never quite reclaiming positive territory. It was almost as if people expected a TACO to be served?

As yields, oil, and the dollar all began to firm up again in the afternoon in the wake of no Mexican food splattering the tape, the S&Ps weakened again into the close to eventually go out back near the morning's lows with a loss of over half a percent.

The dollar was mostly firmer, with the DXY adding a third of a percent despite the BOJ rattling its intervention saber again.

Yields also pushed higher once again, with the 10yr yield pushing up to a new high for the move at 4.67%.

BTC was flat and may be trying to dig in ahead of another run at the 200 dma.

Crude oil added a percent and is approaching the downtrend of a large compression triangle that has been building on the charts since the early April high, which probably means we can expect some more verbal intervention soon from Trump about a deal being "Oh so close!" or some other BS.

The rest of the commodity complex was lower, however, with copper, platinum, etc all making new lows for the week.

Gold hung around in barely positive territory overnight but eventually succumbed to the higher dollar and yields and tumbled to a new low for the week early on during the US session. After spiking to as low as $4464, the yellow metal rebounded back up over $4500 to as high as $4512 before eventually tumbling again into the equity close to go out back near the lower levels of the day at $4483.

Silver traded very similar to gold and tumbled to its low early on during the US session to and hit low of nearly $73. Following a bounce, silver slipped again into the equity close to out just below $74 for a loss of over 4 percent.

The GDX gapped down and slumped to below the 200 dma. After a bounce with stocks and the metals, the GDX slumped again into the close to go out back near the morning's lows for a loss of 4 percent. That was also the first close below the 200 dma by the GDX since Jan of 2025. So, in addition to the 50 dma crossing below the 100 dma in spot gold recently for the first time since Jan of 2024, we now have another technical indicator that suggests that something more sinister than a mere pullback is beginning to take hold in the precious metals complex.

The surge in yields is finally starting to get some headlines, so that may indicate that a counter trend move is coming soon, which could translate into a bounce in stocks and the metals. Perhaps Trump will post some BS on social media?

With that said, any bounce we see is probably just that. Oil isn't coming down even if we could hop in a time machine and go back a couple weeks and open the straits. That die is cast. The only question is how fast crude rises from here, and how fast that pushes yields higher. Or at least that's the question until the Fed panics, but even then pushing down the short end of the curve may not affect the long end much. That's not even on the horizon yet though until stocks dump harder.

Some sort of sharp bounce is still probably coming in the metals and GDX that takes them back to the falling 5 dma at minimum, but it obviously hasn't shown up yet.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. I covered BLDR and XHB today for no other reason than to take profits. Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: I bought a few SLV 70 calls for tomorrow for 16 cents in a small bet on a bounce given some positive divergences on the hourly charts. But this is not a big bet by any means. I'd still rather make a big bet in getting short after a bounce.