The odds of a US strike on Iran by March 1st surged on Polymarket to over 30 percent early on before the equity open, and that expectation of a potential strike over the weakened sent crude higher by over 3 percent. Gold and silver also caught a bid. Meanwhile, the dollar was mixed and little changed. Bond yields fell. As for the stock market, the equity futures slipped ahead of the open.

The S&Ps opened down about a percent and basically chopped around all day between off only half a percent and back on the opening lows with a loss of a percent. For the close, the S&Ps would go out near the better levels of the day with a loss of half a percent.

The financials in particular were heavy, with the big 3 banks falling 2 to 5 percent, although they did not make new lows for the move... yet.

Commodities were mostly higher, with the GCC firming over a percent to a new high for the move.

Gold was largely unchanged overnight but then surged 60 bucks shortly after the US open. Silver also surged above the Feb 4th high. Both metals also surged again into the close to go out on the highs of the day. Gold rose over a percent to $5278, and silver rose over 5 percent to nearly $94.

The GDX gapped up to a new all-timer and would also go out on the highs of the day with a gain of nearly 2 percent.

Now, as everyone knows, the US did indeed attack Iran on Saturday, and all hell has broken loose in the Middle East.

At this point, I'd say all scenarios are potentially in play, and we'll just have to see what happens. There's not much point in trying to predict where stocks, oil, gold, and silver all open but my basic prediction would be down, up a lot, up a lot, and up more than gold, respectively. After that, who knows?

As you will see below, I took off my GDXU, because I was a little worried about the mining stocks potentially sliding with the S&Ps if the US were to launch an attack despite a likely spike in the metals. Part of the reason for that is that there are some technical divergences in the miners that I don't particularly like. I didn't lay a bet on that happening, however. Or at least not yet. I will be interested to see how the mining shares trade on Monday.

My gold model moved to a Tier 1 SELL, but as I've been suggesting, it will likely take a Trifecta SELL to trigger a pullback at this point and maybe several days of a Trifecta.

Positions: I left my equity shorts unchanged, and I continue to be long IBIT and MSTR. Over the weekend, BTC is interestingly higher, so perhaps it is beginning to trade as an alternate currency once again rather than simply a "tech stock." I sold my GDXU, and I sold my SLV 84 and 85 calls for decent gains, although admittedly not at the best levels of the day. I also bought a wad of the SLV 90 calls for Monday, which was a specific bet on bombs dropping this weekend. Below is that Intraday Comment that was posted in real time for subscribers on Friday:

I've bought the SLV 90 calls for Monday for 37 cents fwiw. This is a bet on bombs falling over the weekend, because if they don't, the metals will likely back off some on Monday I suspect.