The S&Ps opened down about half a percent on reports that Iran was refusing to give up its nuclear material. After bouncing around for the most of the morning near the opening lows, it then it the tape that according to a Saudi media outlet Iran and the US had reached a deal that would be announced within hours.

As an aside, why are these deals always going to be announced "within hours"? But I digress...

The S&Ps popped on that headline as the dollar, yields, and crude all slumped. The metals popped too, just as you would expect.

After hitting a high in the early afternoon with a gain of about half a percent, the S&Ps then turned over and slumped to give back about 3/4 of the "deal" gains on reports that there was no such deal. Another report then hit that the US and Iran were very close to a deal, however, and that news was all it took to slingshot the S&Ps back up to near the earlier highs and sent us out with a gain of just a touch.

If you are laughing at this point due to how ridiculous this all is, you are not alone.

Crude oil backed off a percent, while other commodities were mostly higher.

The dollar backed off a new high for the week to end up just a freckle per the DXY. Yields ended unchanged after surging early on.

BTC was flat, and MSTR slipped half a percent.

Gold was lower overnight and printed as low as $4490 once the US session began to mark the low of the day. From there, the metal began to recover and then squirted higher on the deal BS as the dollar and yields came in. After moving into positive territory and printing as high as $4560, the metal then turned over along with everything else and then bounced just like everything else to go out back up near the highs at $4543 for a loss of just a hair.

Silver similarly traded lower all night and then made its low early on in the US. After popping to just over $77 on its highs, the white metal then faded and rebounded to go out at $76.67 for a gain of over a percent.

The GDX had a similar ride and opened near yesterday's low but then popped on the deal BS to trade up above its 5 dma. However, unlike the metals and S&Ps, the GDX then reversed and failed to rebound in the final hour to go out back below the 5 dma and with a loss of half a percent.

These markets continue to swing around with oil, but as I've been highlighting, even if a deal is reached (which I am doubtful of unless the US caves on most of its so-called must-have's), crude oil is going make new highs after the knee jerk to the downside, because it's not like turning on a switch.

In any event, the metals finally made it back to the 5 dma today, as did the GDX, so if the downtrend remains intact, that's typically where a bounce fails. And while the GDX going out below the 5 dma is no guarantee of the bears remaining in charge, it makes it a pretty high probability from a statistical standpoint. So we'll see what happens tomorrow ahead of the 3 day weekend. Given that Trump doesn't like to bomb when the market is open, this 3 day weekend may be his window.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA and IBIT.

Metals: I sold my SLV 72 calls, although I missed the highs of the deal BS pop. I then bought SLV 75, 76, and 77 puts for tomorrow for 14, 10 and 14 cents respectively.