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September 23, 2026
 
     
  Yields Surge Again  
     
 

The S&Ps opened down a touch and then proceeded to tumble to a loss of about three quarters of a percent after yields surged to new highs. However, the cure actually steepened a little this time, so that may be worth keeping any eye on (more on that below).

After hitting a low around noon, the S&Ps proceeded to chop sideways for the rest of the session to go out near the lower levels of the day with a loss of three quarters of a percent.

The dollar was mostly firmer once again, with the DXY popping over half a percent to a new high for the move. BTC fell 2 percent.

Yields surged, with the 10yr making a new multiyear high at 5.11%. The 2yr yield also surged to a new 52-week high of 4.88%. However, the 2/10 spread actually widened a little for the first time since August 18th (the day before Bessent announced his increased buyback). Again, this should be thought of a US-only problem either, because yields surged to new highs all over the world once again. Obviously the dollar's strength confirms that fact as well.

Commodities were mostly lower, although crude oil firmed about 4 percent after that deal we head about yesterday never materialized (again).

Gold slumped overnight even before yields rose, and the metal eventually tumbled to as low as $4275 before bouncing a little back up to $4284 for the close for a loss of nearly 2 percent.

Silver also tanked overnight and tumbled to as low as $64 and change, which is pretty much where it went out with a loss of over 4 percent that not only wiped out yesterday's surge but sent the metal to a new low for the week.

The GDX opened down near yesterday's low and slumped to a new low for the week, where it would chop sideways for the rest of the day to end near the lows with a loss of over 4 percent.

I've read several people calling this a "liquidity event" in the making, but with the S&Ps not even down a percent, this seems like an exaggeration. BTC was barely down too.

What it does remind me of, however in terms of the way the metals and miners traded (a "WTF move" out of nowhere given the prior day's positive action), is the action that we saw on August the 18th (the day prior to Bessent's surprise bond buying announcement).

Now that's not to say that I expect Bessent to say anything new in the AM, but we could get some cooing out of the Fed overnight from the NY Fed's John Williams (who is often tapped to give the market signals) in order to try to buy some time in the long end given that hawkishness, which we got today from a couple Fed goons, seemed to push yields in the long end even higher rather than lower.

Both the metals and miners did close below the 5 dma today, but I'm betting once again that this is a one-day head fake, especially since my model moved back to a Tier 3 BUY again today. We'll find out tomorrow obviously.

My gold model moved back to a Tier 3 BUY, which has been rather "hot" of late at calling good spots to buy the dip.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, SHNY. Long SLV 62 calls for Friday, and I added SLV 61 calls for Friday for 9 cents today.

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

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