Overnight, crude popped about 8 percent and then backed off to a gain of about 5 percent. The dollar firmed as it usually does when the US flexes its military muscle. Gold and silver both opened higher and then faded. Yields rose, and stocks weakened to the tune of about a percent. BTC was also firmer and interestingly didn't follow equities like it normally does.

Once things opened in the US, the situation was roughly the same, although the S&Ps would storm higher from the lower open and quickly went green. Crude oil slipped again back to near the overnight lows but doggedly held on to that roughly 5 percent gain. Gold and silver were clubbed, and yields moved higher.

Basically, it looked like everyone pulled out their 1990 Iraq war playbook and last year's bombing of Iran playbook and assumed everything is over at this point, and we can all go back to chasing stocks as crude collapses and we all head for the promised land. But will that be the case? That's trillion dollar question. I'm betting it's not going to be easy, especially after late in the afternoon Iran announced that the Straits of Hormuz were "closed" (more on that below).

The S&Ps continued to work higher after the ISM came in roughly inline (although the prices paid component was a little hot), and we were basically on the highs of the day in the afternoon when the headlines hit about Iran's message on the straits, at which point the S&Ps plunged as crude oil popped back up near the highs. The S&Ps would still manage to go out near the better levels of the day but only with a gain of a freckle. Crude oil would end near the mid-levels of the day with a gain of over 6 percent.

BTC notably gained about 5 percent, and MSTR picked up over 6 percent to a new high for the move since the Feb low.

Commodities in general were firmer outside of the metals, with the GCC ETF adding a percent to a new high for the move.

Gold traded as high as $5425 overnight and the plunged to as low as $5260 before firming back up to the mid-levels of the day at $5336 for a gain of over a percent. Silver was rocked a little harder and tanked nearly 8 percent to as low as $87 before firming back up to over $90 for the close and a loss of 4 percent. Both silver and gold notably closed above their 5 dma once again.

The GDX opened at a new all-timer and then collapsed to just below its 5 dma on the lows before then firming back up with the metals to cut its loss to less than half a percent. The GDX also notably closed above the 5 dma once again, which leaves the bulls in charge.

Today's selloff in the metals and miners was all about people laying a bet that this will all be over soon and crude will collapse, just as it did in 1990 and again last year when Trump bombed Iran's nuclear sites. If they're wrong about that (and I think they are), then the metals are going to roar back as it begins to sink in that sharply higher energy prices (cause LNG goes through the straits too) are here to stay, which means inflation is going to pop again.

Note that I'm not talking about a "war rally" in metals but a rally based on inflation accelerating across the globe due to higher energy prices. Note how long term yields ROSE today. That's because of inflation; not because all is well. Note my shorts in XHB and BLDR were also spanked, with BLDR nearing a new 52-week low. As I have been saying, mortgage rates are headed HIGHER, not lower.

If Iran throws up its hands tomorrow and energy flows freely through the straits again along with the region's energy infrastructure remaining undamaged, then buy stocks and we party like it's 1999 (or maybe like 1990?). But if that doesn't happen, then the metals are going to rally. Polymarket currently has the odds of Iran "closing the Straits of Hormuz by March 31" at 60%.

My gold model moved back to neutral.

Positions: I left my equity shorts unchanged, and I remain long IBIT and MSTR. I also increased MSTR by 25%. My SLV 90 calls for today got smoked, but I added SLV 90 calls for Wed after the beatdown for an average of 22 cents. I also bought GDXU once the GDX had successfully tested its 5 dma.