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November 19, 2025
 
     
  Waiting On The Jobs Data  
     
 

Stocks were mostly higher ahead of NVDA's earnings tonight, with the S&Ps and Qs picking up about half a percent. BLDR continued to collapse and fell another 3 percent to a new 52-week low.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR.

Commodities were mostly a little lower.

Gold & Silver rallied early on but then gave most of that back. The GDX similarly popped but gave back a big part of its gains. Nevertheless, the GDX and silver both closed above their 5 dma for the first time in 4 days, so the bulls have technically retaken control. With that said, a one day head fake can often occur with this indicator, which is what I suspect this is.

My expectation continues to be that we're going to see the metals and miners correct with equities as the dollar continues to firm, and if tomorrow's jobs report isn't a total disaster, that's precisely what I suspect we'll see in response to the data.

My gold model was neutral again.

Positions: Long ZSL and GDXD, and I added some SLV 44 puts for Friday for 8 cents.

The dollar was firmer again, with the DXY closing above the 200 dma for the first time since March and coming very close to a new 6 month high.

BTC continued to slide, and MSTR notably tanked 10 percent. Positions: Long IBIT.

Yields rose slightly.

 
     
     
 
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