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May 4, 2026
 
     
  Shocker... The War Reignites  
     
 

Stocks initially tumbled before the open on false reports of an Iranian attack on US warships. Oil also popped, while gold and silver slumped.

Once the reports were revealed to be false, stocks shook off the slide and opened a little higher like every other day of the past 30 or so days. However, it then hit tape that Iran had launched several missiles at the UAE, and that sent the S&Ps tumbling as both crude oil, yields, and the dollar all popped. Commodities, as well as gold and silver, also tumbled in response.

Stocks managed to stabilize around mid-morning and bounced a little, but we would still go out near the lower levels of the day with a loss of over a third of a percent in the S&Ps.

Yields popped again all across the curve.

Brent jumped 4 percent to a new closing high and only a handful of bucks away from taking out the intraday highs. Commodities were mostly lower away from crude.

BTC rose 2 percent, and MSTR rose nearly 4 percent.

Gold tumbled $4500 as crude jumped, and it would go out near those lows at roughly $4518 for a loss of 2 percent.

Silver similarly tumbled and went out near the lows with a loss of over 3 percent. Note silver's H&S continuation pattern on the charts, which suggests further downside upon a break of $70 spot.

The GDX gapped down on the open to a new low for the move and then rebounded to fill the gap before then tumbling again to go out back on the lows of the day with a loss of nearly 2 percent to a new low for the move.

Fears of real rates moving higher plus distressed sellers due to oil's rise continue to pressure the precious metals. I'm still expecting lower prices.

It also probably doesn't help matters that the war in Iran seems to be set to resume at any time, which means more damage to oil infrastructure.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR (note this one continues to make new 52-week lows in the wake of its earnings last week). Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. I also added SLV 63 puts for Wed this morning and then sold them after they doubled intraday. I then bought SLV 60 puts for Friday for 19 cents.

 
     
     
 
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