As I suggested we might, the jobs data this morning came in surprisingly strong vs. the consensus at 130K nonfarm payrolls vs the consensus at 70K. The unemployment rate also fell slightly. So once again, just when the mob was braced for one thing, we got the opposite.

The initial reaction saw the dollar and yields pop. The metals, which were higher overnight, gave back some of their gains, and stocks popped. I guess most people believe Warsh will ease regardless? We shall see.

The S&Ps opened higher and then rolled over and plunged into slightly negative territory, led once again by the software names (the IGV fell over 3 percent) and crypto, which seems to have become "software" of late.

The S&Ps would bounce back up to the mid-levels of the day around mid-morning and chop sideways for the rest of the session to end down just a hair.

BTC fell 2 percent, and MSTR slid over 5 percent. So again, we seem to be headed for that retest/undercut of the recent lows.

Gold punched through $5100 overnight to as high as $5116 and then slumped to as low as $5020 on the jobs data as the dollar spiked. As the dollar then gave up much of its gains, the yellow metal recovered to go out back up near the better levels of the day at $5092 for a gain of over a percent.

Silver similarly rallied overnight to over $86 and then slumped in the wake of the jobs data and fell even further during the equity session to eventually hit a low with stocks around mid-morning at $82ish. From there, silver would rebound back up to the $84 area, where it would chop sideways for the rest of the day but still ended up over 4 percent.

The GDX gapped up on the open to fill its Jan 30 gap and was immediately drilled down to fill that opening gap as well and even went briefly negative. Like equities and silver, the GDX then rebounded and would eventually go out back up near the higher open with a gain of nearly 3 percent. Once again, the GDX closed well above the 5 dma, which statistically leaves the bulls in charge. We did, however, form a "hanging man" candle on the daily chart, which could be a sign of a coming reversal if there's follow through tomorrow.

I still believe we're going to see this bounce in gold,silver, and the miners fail at a lower high and lead to another corrective wave down, but unlike several days ago, I now suspect it's going to take until next week before we see prices attack the Feb lows. A rollover between now and Friday, however, would be expected if that's to be the case.

Friday we'll get the CPI, which when taken in conjunction with today's jobs data, could suggest no rate cuts are likely any time soon. Friday (our Thursday night here in the US) will also be China's last trading day for about a week as they go on holiday next week, and given how involved the Chinese (retail) have been in driving the rally in the metals, that could be the catalyst for the correction to pick up next week.

My gold model moved back to a Tier 1 SELL, which has been good for at least a minor selloff the following day of late.

Positions: I made no changes to my equity shorts, and I continue to lug around IBIT. I daytraded some SLV 68 puts for Friday for a 50% gain today and daytraded some GDXD for a tiny gain. My SLV puts for today went poof, and I'm still long the GDX puts for Friday. However, I suspect those are donuts because they're too far away.

I did buy some GDX 90 puts for next Friday for 25 cents in the afternoon today though, and if the scenario that I outlined above (ie- attacking the Feb lows next week) plays out, they should pay off handsomely on any sort of slide back to support that corresponds at the October high and the Jan 2nd lows, or roughly 85.