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June 17, 2026
 
     
  Warsh Spooks Everyone  
     
 

I had a meeting run late after the close, so I will make this brief...

The FOMC statement didn't say much other than to dial back the easing bias, and the dots suggested rate hikes this year. Warsh claimed he would fight inflation, and everyone panicked.

The S&Ps dumped for over a percent. Yields soared, especially in the short end as the curve flattened. The dollar ripped, with the DXY popping up to just shy of breaking out to a new 52-week high.

BTC fell over 2 percent.

Commodities were lower, although oil was roughly unchanged after spiking briefly when cushing inventories came out and hit close to "empty."

Gold and silver and GDX rallied initially but then got smoked post-FOMC. Both gold and silver filled their weekend gaps and closed back below the 5 dma, but the GDX stubbornly refused to fill its Monday gap and remained above the 5 dma. So, the question is whether that's a sign of strength or a sign of complacency on the part of mining bulls? We shall see.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC and DBA.

Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. Long SLV 60 puts for tomorrow, and I added to these today for 11 cents too. I sold my 61 puts for $1.01 simply to take some profits. Long GDX 80 puts for tomorrow and I added 82 and 83 puts for tomorrow for 8 cents.

 
     
     
 
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