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July 28, 2026
 
     
  Waiting On Warsh  
     
 

The KOSPI was pounded overnight for 11 percent, and that had the S&Ps off a touch ahead of the open this morning.

That weakness didn't last long though, and after opening down a touch, the S&Ps took off and rallied up into slightly positive territory despite the SOX being pounded for 5 percent thanks to the KOSPI weakness overnight.

From there, things prety much died, and the S&Ps would chop sideways for the rest of the day to go out near the better levels of the session with a gain of a touch.

The dollar began the day firmer but weakened as yields fell, with the DXY ending down a touch. The 10yr and 2yr both fell about 5 bps. Some lunatics also got it in their heads that maybe the Fed would hike tomorrow and had pushed fed funds up to a 37% chance of 25 bp hike this morning, although by the close, that had dropped to under 30%.

Commodities were mostly lower along with crude oil, which slumped another 4 percent on top of the TACO tumble it took yesterday.

Gold slipped overnight and eventually hit a low of $4011 early on in the US session, where a bounce began. After recoiling back up to around $4045, the metal slipped again to end back at around $4023 for a loss of over a percent. Today was also a big futures option ex for those keeping score at home.

Silver similarly tumbled overnight but then rebounded into a 75 cent range between $56.75 and $57.50 to eventually go out at $57 for a loss of over 2 percent.

The GDX opened down and then rebounded with the metals to go out near the middle of the day's range with a loss of 2 percent. That slide also caused the GDX to give up the 5 dma for the first day in 6, but time will tell if this is a one-day head fake or an indication of trend change.

Gold has been in a roughly $200 trading range all month, and silver has been in a similar tight range. With month-end approaching, it's a good bet that we're going to see volatility increase and for a move to occur one way or the other that will break those ranges and force some hands. The question is in which direction?

Given the fear that has built up about a rate hike, I tend to think the bulls are due for a rally when the Fed punts tomorrow, but we shall see.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: Long GDXU and AGQ. I also added some SLV 56 calls for Friday today for 8 cents.

Stay flexible my friends...

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

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