Iran and the US failed to make a deal over the weekend, which should have surprised nobody with a pulse. In response, Trump said the US would blockade Iranian ports and any shipping that had paid Iran for passage through the straits.

Initially, the reaction overnight was for oil to pop about 8 percent. The S&Ps tumbled over a percent. Gold and silver were spanked, while the dollar and yields rose.

By the time we rolled around to the US open, however, everybody decided to reverse all those trades after smattering of "Iran wants a deal" and "we're still talking" headlines were scattered around.

In the end, the S&Ps would close up a percent. Oil would rise only 3 percent. The dollar index slipped a third of a percent. Yields fell a couple bps.

Gold rallied back to only a loss of less than half a percent at around $4740. Silver cut its losses too to only just over a percent after once again bouncing off the bottom of its bear flag on the charts.

The GDX opened down and cut its loss to just over half a percent. That close also left the GDX above the 5 dma once again, so the bulls remain in control.

I honestly have no idea what people are doing at this point? Hence, today's title. Hope (emphasis on that word) for a deal seems to be winning for the time being.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Long IBIT and DBA.

I'm flat gold and silver and GDX.