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October 30, 2026
 
     
  AI Meltdown Bleeds Into Everything Not Nailed Down  
     
 

We opened down about a percent in the S&Ps on the back of more bad news in AI-Land. We then proceeded to plunge all morning, with the QQQ and SOX out in the lead on the downside.

Finally with a little over an hour to go in the session we found our low for the day with a loss of nearly 3 percent in the S&Ps and nearly 9 percent in the SOX. From there a rally began on what looked a lot like short covering to me, but in any event, the rally triggered a bit of a buying panic into the close to cut the day's losses nearly in half to just under 2 percent in the S&Ps, just over 3 percent in the QQQ, and just over 7 percent in the SOX.

The dollar was a little firmer but not by much. BTC fell over 5 percent.

Yields were little changed, but they sure look like they want to go lower if equities continue to collapse next week.

Commodities were broadly lower, except for crude, which rose a percent and put the USO at a new 52-week high and Brent crude at just shy of one. Copper was off a percent, while platinum and palladium made new 52-week lows again with losses of 4 and 3 percent respectively.

Gold plunged below 4,000 overnight and the day at the waterpark continued in the US, with the metal eventually printing a new 52-week low of $3870 at its nadir before bouncing a little along with equities into the close to go out closer to $3880 for a loss of over 3 percent.

Silver once again dogged it up even more and and collapse to a new 52-week low of below $49 and pushed the silver/gold ratio to a new 52-week low as well. Like gold, silver saw a bounce into the equity close, but it still went out with a thumping of over 5 percent to $49ish.

The GDX gapped down on the open and briefly tried to hold the bottom of the channel on the charts that it has been in since the August high, but as the selling in the metals and equities continued, the GDX eventually blew through that channel and plunged to a loss of nearly 7 percent. That dive marked the low for the day, and the same short covering rally we saw in equities (or at least that's what it looked like to me) appeared in the GDX into the close to bring it back to the bottom of the channel and cut its loss to just over 5 percent.

As I indicated on Thursday, I was sort of afraid of something like this in the metals and miners after my model remained at neutral over the prior two days as we merely rebounded to the 5 dma. It was also month-end, which may hav exacerbated the selling as well.

The good news for the short-term, however, is that my model moved back to a Tier 3 BUY on Friday. So, if the recent patter we saw all month during October bleeds into November, we should see some sort of attempt at a rally on Monday. Whether that's just another bounce that gets sold is the question, and unfortunately, that's the way I am leaning at the moment.

After being optimistic about a rally developing earlier in October, I fear we are now in a zone where stocks, commodities, and gold are all going to be sold until we see something climactic to the downside that forces the Fed to punt on rate hikes and maybe even forces the Fed to ease.

But in the meantime, the best thing to do is probably watch and wait.

My gold model moved back to a Tier 3 BUY.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, STRC, and BLDR.

Metals: I sold my GDX puts for $2.95 for roughly 30x and went home flat.

 
     
     
 
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