As everyone knows, TACOs were served last night when Trump declared a two week ceasefire. Iran agreed and threw out a list of demands that are in direct conflict with US demands, but everybody saw the ceasefire headline and said, "Toga Party?"

Crude dumped 15 percent, and the S&Ps were bid up over 2 percent ahead of the open this morning. Gold and silver were also bid up to the tune of 5 percent and a 2 percent. The dollar was pounded, and yields fell. Smells like nirvana, doesn't it? And it was so easy too... Or was it? (more on that below)

The S&Ps opened up over 2 percent and basically chopped sideways all day to go out where they had opened with a gain of over 2 percent.

Crude firmed off its low and cut its loss to 13 percent.

Commodities were mostly higher but finished well off their highs for the most part.

BTC popped 3 percent but also gave up a good chunk of its gains.

Yields reversed to end closer to unch, and the dollar firmed up off its lows to a loss of only half a percent on the DXY.

Gold gave up nearly all its gains to end up only half a percent and actually ended DOWN in every major currency except for dollars (it was down 2 percent in South African RAND of all things). Silver also gave up most of its gains to end up just over 2 percent.

The GDX gapped up and then reversed to cut its gains nearly in half to just over 3 percent. Nevertheless, GDX closed above the 5 dma once again, which leaves the bulls statistically in charge.

Now, the interesting thing (other than the price action) was that the ceasefire only appeared to last a few hours as the UAE bombed Iran, Israel bombed Lebanon, and Iran fired missiles and drones at the UAE, Saudi, and Israel. Iranian government officials even declared the truce to be "over" because it had been broken before it started they claimed. Oh, and the Straits were never fully opened either, which Trump was demanding as part of the ceasefire.

Basically, this looks like one giant Cluster F***, and I don't see how it ends well. I wouldn't be surprised if we heard Iran was attacking oil infrastructure of its neighbors and the US had begun bombing Iranian power plants tonight. This whole thing is a joke. The really humorous part though is that markets fell for it overnight. This isn't like Trump's tariffs, where he can wave a wand and all is well.

I don't know how long it takes for markets to realize this, but they will be forced to at some point soon.

Gold's open interest continues to make new 52-week lows as longs refuse to take positions due to the risk of distressed sellers using it as a source of cash remains. Spec short covering is the only thing pushing prices up. When that changes, open interest will jump BIG. THAT is the all clear signal. Until then, risk remains to the downside.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: I left my shorts unchanged in SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Long IBIT and DBA.

Long GDXD and ZSL. long SLV 57 puts for Friday, and I added SLV 63 puts for Friday this morning for 14 cents.