The S&Ps opened up a touch and basically chopped sideways all day between that opening level and up about half a percent. For the close, we go out near the top of the range with a gain of just under half a percent. The SOX notably fell half a percent, as the chips continue to roll over from a lower high along with the NASDAQ.

The dollar was initially a little weaker but then firmed up to go out virtually unchanged per the DXY.

Yields rose again, with the 10yr yield pushing to a new 52-week high of 4.74%. So, obviously Bessent's little duration shifting trick did not work as planned.

Commodities were mostly a little higher. Copper rose over a percent, while platinum added 3 percent. Crude rose half a percent.

BTC rose another 6 percent and has now completed the measured move from its inverted H&S bottom. Now we'll have to see what the pullback/consolidation looks like.

Gold drifted higher overnight and eventually traded up to as high as $4632 before fading back to $4603 for the close for a gain of 2 percent. That close also put the yellow metal above the 200 dma for the week.

Silver traded similarly to gold and nearly printed $70 before fading to go out back down around $69 for a gain of just under 2 percent.

The GDX gapped up again and then traded in tight range all day to go out near the middle of the day's extremely tight range but with a gain of 3 percent.

Bessent's gambit obviously didn't work, and this coming Friday it will be the Fed's turn, via Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, to either double down on trying to push down the long end or to simply not address it. I sort of doubt he will double down, but simply not addressing it might be a disappointment for many that have piled into debasement trades over the past two weeks. We'll just have to see.

In the meantime, as long as gold, silver, and the GDX remain above the 5 dma, the bulls are in clear control and further upside must be the assumption.

My gold model moved to a Tier 1 SELL on Friday, which may indicate a pullback is coming early next week even if upside is to continue into month-end. Or at least that's the most common outcome during a strong uptrend. It also could take several days of a Tier 1 SELL before a pullback emerges, but they generally do occur. Alternatively, if this is has just been a bear market rally, then the sell signal could indicate a peak in that rally.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC

Metals: Flat