The S&Ps opened down about a third of a percent and inside of yesterday's range after the KOSPI sold off overnight, which had the chips and tech in general under pressure right from the getgo, as the AI bubble continues to implode.
The next hour or so was then a waterfall as the SOX and SMH and QQQ all made new 6-month lows.
After declining about 3 percent, the angle of attack on the downside in the S&Ps then moderated somewhat, but the downtrend continued.
The remainder of the session was basically a nonstop slide that sent the S&Ps out on the lows with a loss of over 4 percent. The QQQ lost over 6 percent, and the SOX was pounded for over 12 percent.
At this point, the AI bubble has basically burst, and now we're starting to see fallout in terms of equity declines. It's also going to weigh on the economy too since AI was basically what has been keeping things afloat. That's why the MDY and IWM were both smoked for 4 percent today too.
The dollar was mixed, weaker vs. the yen but a firmer vs. the euro and some other paper. The DXY was flat. BTC fell over 5 percent.
Yields fell all across the curve but mostly in the short-end, which steepened the curve. The odds of a rate hike in December also began to decline per the fed funds futures market as well as polymarket.
Commodities were mixed. Crude rose 5 percent, while copper was hit for over 3 percent. Palladium rose over 3 percent, and platinum rose over a percent.
Gold rallied overnight up to as high as $4143 and then backed off and eventually hit a low during the US session at $4076 in a slide that coincided with stocks tanking to their mid-morning low. Once the selling in the S&Ps moderated some, the yellow metal then roared back up to $4125 before ultimately sliding again in the afternoon as the equity selling continued. For the close, gold would go out back near the US session lows at $4085 for a gain of nearly a percent.
Silver traded very similar to gold and after making a new high for the week overnight, it also weakened and would ultimately go out back near its morning lows too but with a loss of half a percent.
The GDX gapped up through the top of its channel and then reversed as stocks plunged to briefly go slightly negative before recovering and then chopping sideways for the rest of the session to end near the middle of the day's range with a gain of over a percent and above the top of its channel for the first time since it began back in August.
When stocks come under intense selling pressure, you can always get some bleed over selling in the metals and especially the miners, but if the dollar is weakening at the same time (like it is now), the selling typically isn't much to be concerned about. And as we saw today, the beating in the NASDAQ was pretty intense, but gold still managed to close higher and so did the GDX. It also helps that gold and silver just made new 52-week lows last week. They've already been sold out, and they have a big short based built in now too.
The bigger news about the AI implosion is the implications for the Fed, who's next move will be to EASE rather than hike, and that's going to pressure the dollar and propel the metals and miners higher even as stocks slide.
That's also why tomorrow's jobs data could be the cherry on top of the sundae for the metals and miners. Another stinker of a number on top of this decline in stocks is the perfect bullish cocktail to hit the dollar and propel the metals and miners to new highs for the move as Fed rate hike odds plunge.
In our back pocket we also have gold, silver and the GDX all above their 5 dma, which means the short-term trend is up. We also have the GDX breaking out from its downard channel, and we have gold having broken its downtrend since August. Only silver has yet to take out its downtrend since September after attacking it last night, but that's a downtrend I expect to see give way tomorrow.
So, let's see how things react to the jobs data, but if stocks merely slow their decline or bounce, that's all the metals and miners should need in order to release to the upside.
We saw a very similar pattern back in 2001-2002 when the Internet bubble burst and the Fed began to ease. Stocks and precious metals and their miners diverged, with stocks sliding and PM rallying. As the S&Ps would bounce to lower highs, PM would make new highs. As the S&Ps then plunged to new lows for the bear market, PM would pull back to higher lows and so on. We may be in for a similar pattern now as AI implodes. We'll just have to see.
My gold model remained at neutral. Recall in prior cycles that after a bounce began on a Tier 3 BUY and we tested the 5 dma, selling immediately resumed once my model returned to neutral. That's not happening this time, and that's bullish.
Let's see how the kiddies react to the jobs data tomorrow, but if we get another stinker and the metals take out last night's highs, I believe we'll see a sizeable move to the upside, which is also what I suspect the breakout from the channel today by the GDX is hinting at as well.
Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, STRC, IBIT and BLDR.
Metals: Long GDXU, SHNY, AGQ SLV 47 calls for tomorrow and SLV 49 calls for tomorrow. I also added some more SLV 49s today for 8 cents.