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March 12, 2026
 
     
  Oilmageddon  
     
 

In the wake of the G7 SPR bazooka yesterday, crude gave the effort the middle finger and continued to move higher overnight. By the close today, both WTI and Brent would rally 9 and 8 percent respectively to new closing 52-week highs.

The S&Ps opened down half a percent or so and slowly drifted lower all day as crude sawed higher, and we eventually went out on the lows of the day with a loss of a percent and a half and just shy of Monday's opening low.

The financials were notably weak once again, with the XLF losing nearly 2 percent to another new low for the year. These names continue to trade like a recession is coming, which it is.

BLDR fell 5 percent to a new 52-week low, and the XHB fell 3 percent to a nearly 8-month low. I BLDR would bounce so I could short more.

Commodities were mostly lower outside of crude, with the GCC picking up half a percent and the DJP over 2 percent to a new closing high (again, crude did all the heavy lifting here).

BTC was up a hair, but MSTR fell nearly a percent. Unlike stocks though, BTC and MSTR continue to tread water... for now.

The dollar was firmer again, with the DXY popping half a percent to a new high for the year.

Yields rose once again, although the yield curve flattened once again, with the 2/10 spread making a new low for the year. That's not bullish for gold and silver unfortunately.

Gold slipped overnight and tumbled further during the US session to eventually slide to as low as $5050 and went out at around $5080 for a loss of 2 percent.

Silver traded up to the top of its compression triangle once again overnight and failed again before then visiting the bottom of the triangle late in the US session with a slide to as low as nearly $83 before going out at around $84 for a loss of 2 percent. Silver is running out of room in this triangle, and unless the pattern is due to fail, we're going to see a breakout one way or the other tomorrow.

The GDX opened down a touch and slumped to below yesterday's intraday low before bouncing and then sliding again back to near the opening lows to end near the lower levels of the day with a loss of 3 percent to a new closing low for the move since the March high. Once again, the GDX closed below the 5 dma, which leaves the bears in charge.

Once again, unless a miracle occurs, which at this point would literally take an act of God I think, I still anticipate asset prices are going to be sold aggressively across the board, and that includes precious metals and the miners. When people are raising cash in an environment like this where energy costs are soaring and the yield cure is flattening (i.e. - the market views it as deflationary in the short term), silver gets used as a source of funds and so does gold, albeit to a lesser extent because "it's gold." As for the miners, they just get treated like stocks.

People are going to be hoping and crying for the Fed to do something next week at the FOMC in order to save stocks, but they won't do a thing unless stocks have crashed by then. And judging by how the mob continues to treat the current situation a lot like they did Covid in February of 2020 (i.e. - putting their heads in the sand and ignoring it), I doubt we'll have seen the equity market totally come apart by then.

But when stocks do finally collapse, look for the Fed to ride to the rescue with the printing press, because they will say the oil spike is a supply issue that monetary policy can't affect. Thus, they will end up monetizing it, just like they do every other time. Gold will of course rip on that, but it will rip from lower, just as it did during the Covid crash. It's the same process this time but with a different name. This time it's Oilmageddon.

Let's see what happens overnight, but if crude oil pushes back up to near Monday's spike high tomorrow like I suspect it will, then I'd be pretty surprised if we didn't see some sellers show up in just about everything tomorrow ahead of the weekend.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: I made no changes to my shorts in SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDY, XHB, and BLDR. I continue to lug around IBIT.

Long GDXD and ZSL. Long SLV 69 and 70 puts for tomorrow, and I added some SLV 71 puts for tomorrow for 9 cents today.

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

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