The overnight motion was a little interesting given that it didn't follow the usual "deal-on, deal-off" playbook. Crude dumped another couple bucks on more BS about a deal, but the S&Ps didn't get much of a boost from it. Commodities were also softer, and the dollar, which initially dipped, firmed up and rallied. Gold and silver were also unusually pounded.

The S&Ps opened down a touch and dribbled a little lower while some chip names, specifically MU, seemed to garner all the attention, as they soared to new even dumber heights.

After hitting a low around noon, the S&Ps firmed back up to the open for the close to end down just a hair on the day despite crude oil tanking another 4 percent for no real reason that I could detect, other than of course the continued conflicting reports of a "deal" from both the White House and Iran that never seems to materialize.

BTC slipped a percent and may have formed a little H&S top on the charts.

The dollar initially slipped with crude overnight but then firmed back up to send the DXY out on the highs with a gain of a hair. My guess is DXY is going to attack 100.5 and break out sometime over the next few weeks as strategic reserves begin to run out and oil suddenly jumps (whether some BS deal materializes or not), which is going to have all kinds of other fun consequences too.

Yields were basically unch, which also doesn't fit the usual correlation with lower crude.

Commodities were mostly lower along with crude, with copper sliding over a percent and platinum falling 2 percent and back to its low for the month.

Gold tumbled overnight despite oil sliding, and the yellow metal eventually hit a low shortly after the US open at nearly $4400, which also took Aug gold below its 200 dma. From there, the metal bounced, as it tends to do at these moving averages, and the metal would eventually end well off that low up around $4455 for a loss of over a percent.

Silver similarly dumped overnight and slipped to as low as $73.5, or just shy of its May 19th low. It took then bounced and slipped into what looks like a bearish pennant o the hourly charts to end near the apex of that pennant at $74.63 for a loss of over 3 percent.

The GDX island reversed over yesterday's gap and then rebounded to fill it before then reversing once again and slumping to end on the low tick with a loss of over 3 percent to just shy of its 200 dma. As I indicated was a distinct possibility yesterday, that close also put the GDX back below the 5 dma after yesterday's one-day head fake. Thus, the bears remain in charge from a purely statistical point of view.

Today was interesting in that the usual correlations didn't take hold. Now, maybe that's just noise, or maybe the market is sensing that oil has been pushed about as low as it's going to go with rhetoric and whatever games that White House is playing in the futures market? I tend to think the latter.

Gold still acts terrible, and silver is no better. The fact that gold is attacking its 200 dma for the first time since late 2023 says volumes. Obviously, with the GDX having barely bounced off its 200 dma and now slipping back towards it again, that doesn't bode well either.

I still worry that gold, silver, and GDX are headed for a test and an eventual break of the March lows, which I suspect will be coincident with a decline in stocks and commodities generally as the dollar firms and crude oil resumes its upside. If enough damage is done by the June 17th FOMC, maybe Warsh will even get his chance to ease and send the metals higher off of whatever low they find between now and then? But that's not today's business.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. Long SLV 64 puts for Friday, and I added the 63 puts for 9.5 cents today.