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May 12, 2026
 
     
  Everything Rallies WITH Oil Again  
     
 

Crude oil rallied about $3 overnight, and that had all asset prices under pressure once again.

Before the open, we got the CPI data, and as expected, it came in on the warm side. Nobody seem to care much though given that yields came in a little on the news and stocks and the metals bounced.

The S&Ps opened down and initially plunged to a loss of nearly a percent, where it found its low for the day. Around the same time, the dollar began to weaken a little, and the metals bottomed out as well.

From that low the S&Ps would melt up for the rest of the session and eventually went out on the highs of the day with a loss of only a touch.

The dollar was mostly firmer, with the dollar index picking up half a percent.

Yields were also higher.

Commodities rallied with oil for a change, with the DJP hitting a new 52-week high. Copper popped over 2 percent to a new closing all-timer, and platinum was up a touch.

BTC slipped a percent and continues to struggle just below the 200 dma. MSTR came in 6 percent. The Crypto crazies all have their eyes on the Senate Banking Committee and the Clarity Act, which is set to move on to its next hurdle on Thursday when it potentially exits a committee hearing.

Gold plunged to as low as $4640 but then spent the rest of the day rallying (just like stocks) to go out on the highs at $4715 and with a loss of only half a percent.

Silver similarly recovered from an early slide and eventually went out with a gain of over half a percent to a new high for the move. That move also pushed the silver/gold ratio to its highest levels since the Jan 30th collapse.

The GDX similarly plunged but then recovered and eventually went out on the highs with a loss of only half a percent. The SIL, SILJ, and GDXJ went out with a gain.

Gold still can't get out of its own way, and bulls seem to be focusing all their firepower instead on silver, which rallied today for a second day in a row WITH oil. That's a different dynamic, which suggests that something may be changing. Perhaps commodities are getting ready to rip with oil, with gold being left behind as so often happens at peaks in commodities.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR (this one made another new 52-week low today). Long IBIT and DBA, and I bought MSTR 217.5 calls for Friday for 26 cents.

Metals: I was impressed with today's action, and chose to turn long GDXU and AGQ after initially dabbling on the short side in both GDX and silver.

Tomorrow we'll get the PPI, but like with CPI today, I doubt anyone will care.

 
     
     
 
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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

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