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August 17, 2026
 
     
  Crude Surges  
     
 

The S&Ps opened flat and chopped sideways for most of the morning until crude oil took off around mid-day on more saber rattling from the US and Iran.

The remainder of the session was pretty much a nonstop slide that sent the S&Ps out on the worst levels of the day with a loss of half a percent.

Crude oil, on the other hand, went out on the highs with a gain of 3 percent. The rest of the commodity complex was also high, with the DJP Bloomberg Commodity ETF breaking out the upside from a cup and handle formation on the charts.

The dollar began the day weaker but firmed to only end down a freckle.

Yields also rose slightly.

BTC gained 2 percent, and MSTR managed to pop 5 percent.

Gold rallied a few bucks overnight and initially slipped to flat as the US session began. Once the equity market opened, however, the yellow metal took off a squirted up to nearly $4430 despite the recovery in the dollar and crude oil's rally. From that high, the metal then slipped but would rebound again into the close to go out back up near the better levels of the day at $4415.

Silver acted similarly and traded up to within 25 cents of a new high for the move above $66.80 before fading to go out off the highs but still up 2 percent to $65.75.

The GDX opened inside of Friday's range and then surged to within pennies of a new high for the move before slipping a little from the highs to end the day off the highs but still up over 2 percent.

Gold, silver, and the GDX all closed above their 5 dma and made new closing highs for the move, which means the bulls remain in charge.

After flagging or the past 4 days, the metals look set to surge to new highs for the move, as does the GDX. Given crude's move today, it would appear that those surges may come in conjunction with a move higher in crude as well, which would be a new and interesting wrinkle.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT, STRC, and DBA.

Metlas: Long GDXU and AGQ, and I also bought some SLV 63.5 calls for Wed for 7 cents.

 
     
     
 
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