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December 12, 2025
 
     
  Got Our Pullback In The Metals  
     
 

The S&Ps dumped about a percent for no particular reason (AI selloff excuse?). Homebuilding trash was weak too, with BLDR and the XBH both falling over a percent.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR

Commodities also heavy across the board, although platinum did briefly pop to a new 52-week high before reversing to just barely avoid closing at a new high but still ending up over 2 percent.

Gold and silver both popped overnight, but as the selling tide went out everywhere else, they got dragged down as well, with silver losing 3 percent and gold giving up most of its gains to only end up half a percent. Gold also notably failed to punch through the October high, or at least not yet.

The GDX gapped up on the open but then came in as well and fell just over half a percent. Nevertheless, the GDX ended well above the 5 dma, which leaves the bulls firmly in charge.

I was looking for a pullback to the 5 dma in gold and silver, and we basically got that today. That should be enough of a reset to set up a resumption of upside early next week ahead of the jobs data on Tuesday, although some sort of retest of today's lows (or even breaking them before recovering the 5 dma for the close) can't be ruled out early on Monday. The GDX similarly could still test its 5 dma before upside resumes.

Tuesday's jobs number should be a stinker, and if so, it's as good as any other excuse for the bulls to continue to press their bets in the metals into year-end.

My gold model came off the Trifecta SELL and moved to neutral.

Positions: Long GDXU.

The dollar was mixed, with the DXY ending virtually unchanged.

BTC tumbled again, with IBIT losing 2 percent.

Positions: Long IBIT (I don't trade this one)

Yields were higher, as the curve continues to steepen. The 2/10 spread notably made a new 52-week high.

 
     
     
 
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