The S&Ps opened up a touch, dipped back to the unchanged mark, and then popped to a gain of about half a percent on some more Iran/US deal headlines, which is pretty much were we would close as well.

The dollar slipped on the deal headlines but then firmed up back up to cut its loss to just a touch per the DXY. BTC slipped half a percent.

Yields in the short end slumped on the deal headlines, which further steepened the curve for a third straight session.

Commodities were mostly firmer, except for crude, which slipped 2 percent on the deal headlines. Interestingly, the XOP and other oil related equities appear to be on the verge of breaking down from H&S tops on the charts, so it seems that Americans at least are betting on a deal (how ever short term it might be) ahead of the midterm elections.

Gold and silver firmed overnight but then gave up those gains early on during the US session before then firming again on the deal headlines to go out back up near the mid-levels of the day with gains of half a percent and a percent respectively.

The GDX opened flat and initially slumped back to nearly yesterday's low before firming with the metals to go out back up near the highs of the day with a gain of half a percent.

Both the metals and GDX closed below the 5 dma again today for a 3rd session, which puts the bears statistically in charge going into next week.

With that said, I'm betting on more "deal" headlines to push oil and the short end of the yield curve lower. That should weaken the dollar and bring buyers into the metals.

Trump has initially turned down a deal offer by the Iranians over the weekend, but never fear because talks continue. And when markets reopen on Sunday night, I would expect more soothing headlines to appear as opposed to the ones we saw on Saturday when markets were closed.

If the metals and GDX can recover the 5 dma on Monday, that should set up a challenge of last week's highs once again, which should break to the upside this time I would expect.

On the downside the bears, will of course be looking to take out the prior week's lows, which would invalidate the entire theory laid out above.

My gold model moved back to neutral after 3 days on a Tier 3 BUY.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC.

Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNNY. I've been burned in SLV calls for several days now, but I'm not giving up (yet). I bought the SLV 61 calls for Wed for 10 cents on Friday.