Stocks opened up about half a percent after crude oil leaked another few bucks overnight on the back of more chatter from Trump about ceasefires and whatever else he thought would prop up stocks. He also announced a speech for tonight, where of course everyone assumes that he will command stocks higher and oil lower with his magic powers.

After working up to a gain of about a percent, the S&Ps then rolled over in the afternoon after Iran basically denied everything that Trump had said (they also blew up a tanker overnight).

For the close, the S&Ps would go out back where they started with a gain of just over half a percent. I'd mention the ISM and the ADP data, which were also released today, but I'm not sure any of that matters right now relative to the swings in oil, etc. Nobody seemed to care when it hit today. That much is certain.

BTC slipped a touch, and MSTR fell 2 percent.

The dollar was a little weaker again, although the DXY did rally at the end of the day to cut its loss to a third of a percent after testing its uptrend since the low.

Yields rose slightly.

Commodities were mostly higher (ex crude oil) once again, but not by much. Again, commodities and stocks seem to be all one same trade at the moment. That will probably continue until it doesn't.

Gold traded up to as high as $4793 and then faded to go out at roughly $4766 for a gain of 2 percent.

Silver slipped overnight and then firmed up to over $76 on its highs before slipping again to go out back at $75 for a loss of a freckle.

The GDX gapped up on the open and traded up with the metals before then backing off with them go out off the highs but still up nearly 5 percent. That close also put the GDX above the 20 dma for the first time since falling below it back on March 5th. Obviously, the GDX also closed above the 5 dma once again, so the bulls remain statistically in charge.

We'll see what the Trumper has to say tonight and more importantly what the reaction is, but after the US has sent all of these troops to the theater recently and even sent another aircraft carrier, you have to be pretty stupid to believe any more BS about a sudden ceasefire or unicorns and rainbows soon popping out of Trump's butt when he commands it.

If equities roll, then the metals will roll, as both selling and buying tends to be across the board of late relative to moves in crude.

Speaking of, whenever gold rallies on its own and not because oil is down or stocks are up is something we want to watch for to tell us that it's sold out, because I still worry that when stocks take another leg down (which they will) silver and GDX will make new lows and gold may retest its low or even undercut it a little.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: I remain short SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDY, XHB, and BLDR. Long IBIT and DBA.

Long GDXD and ZSL (the former was a little painful today but at least I sidestepped yesterday's meltup). I also added SLV 65 puts for tomorrow for 19 cents and 59 puts for next Monday for 17 cents.