Pretty much everything in terms of asset prices that was lower yesterday firmed overnight as yields fell.
The S&Ps opened up over a percent and immediately slipped into a sideways chop that would last for the rest of the session and sent us out pretty much where we had opened with a gain of over a percent.
The dollar was mixed, with the DXY slipping a hair. The dol/yen slipped a touch ahead of tonight's BOJ meeting. Bessent said he was the "house." I guess we'll see...
Yields fell all across the curve, although the curve continued to flatten.
Commodities were mostly higher except for crude, which fell over a percent.
BTC rose half a percent and was fairly quiet once again.
Gold and silver rallied all night and opened higher in the US. Gold would eventually trade up to as high as $4380 and silver traded up over $66 before both then backed off to finish off the highs but still up nearly 2 percent at $4342 in the case of gold and over 3 percent at over $65 in the case of silver. Both metals closed just below their downtrends since the August high, but there's always tomorrow.
The GDX opened up near yesterday's high and traded up a little higher before then settling back and slipping into a sideways chop near the open (much like the spoos), which would last for the rest of the day. For the close, the GDX would go out pretty much where it had opened with a gain of over 3 percent.
Gold, silver, and the GDX are now all above their 5 dma, which puts the bulls back in charge statistically speaking. As you will see below, my model likely remained on a Tier 3 BUY too.
All of that suggests that today's pop was not just a one-day wonder but rather then beginning of something more substantial to the upside. That's especially true given that the H&S patterns in both gold and silver failed to work, which in my experience typically then morphs into a strong upside move.
My gold model likely remained on a Tier 3 BUY again, but I don't have all my data in yet. I will post an update in tomorrow morning's note.
Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC
Metals: Long GDXU, AGQ, and SHNY. Long GLD 410 calls, and SLV 60 and 61 calls. I sold half of my GLD and SLV calls early and then bought more of the SLV 60 calls for tomorrow late in the afternoon as well as GDX 98 calls for tomorrow.
