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April 27, 2026
 
     
  A Deal Is Close! (Again)  
     
 

The S&Ps opened down a hair despite Iran supposedly sending a proposal over the weekend to the US that both sides would open the straits and punt on the nuclear issue. The US obviously didn't jump at the opportunity.

After hitting a low with a loss of a touch around mid-morning, the S&Ps then rallied up to a new high for the day and would go out on the best levels of the session with a gain of a hair to a new all-timer.

The dollar began the day weaker but then firmed to end virtually flat per the dollar index. Yields also rose slightly.

BTC lost over 2 percent, and MSTR lost a percent.

Commodities were mostly lower ex-crude, which gained over a percent despite the deal BS being floated again.

Gold slumped to as low as $4667 but then rebounded after the futures option expiration and would go out off the lows and closer to $4680 for a loss of nearly a percent.

Silver similarly slumped to as low as $74.75 and then rebounded after the expiration to go out off the lows and back up near $75.50 for a loss of over half a percent.

The GDX opened down and slid to just shy of Friday's low, where it would chop sideways to go out near the lower levels of the day with a loss of 2 percent. The GDX also closed below the 5 dma again, which leaves the bears statistically in charge.

All eyes remain on Iran, although we also have the FOMC on Wed, which is probably going to be a nonevent, especially since Warsh is likely to be confirmed as the new Fed chair the very same day.

As long as last week's lows in gold, silver, and GDX hold, the bulls have a shot at a bounce, but I suspect that's all they will be able to muster.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Long DBA and IBIT.

Metals: long GDXD and ZSL, and I added SLV 65 puts for Wed.

 
     
     
 
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