Despite crude rallying another 2 percent overnight as the war heats back up between Iran and the US, other markets were fairly quiet.
Before the open, we got the CPI data, and as expected, it was "cooler". Predictably, the reaction was for the dollar and yields to fall as stocks, gold, and commodities all popped.
After opening below those post-CPI pop highs, the S&Ps basically drifted sideways all day to go out with a gain of a third of a percent.
Warsh's testimony was also largely as expected, as he promised to fight inflation again, but there was no real reaction to him one way or the other. The market is still buying his tough guy BS for the time being, and that's not good for the metals or BTC.
Yields fell mostly in the short-end, which steepened the curve, while the dollar firmed all day in the wake of its post-CPI dump to eventually recapture nearly all of its losses to end down only a touch.
BTC popped 4 percent, while MSTR jumped 6 percent.
Commodities were mostly higher including crude oil, which rose nearly 3 percent to another new high for the move since its low.
Gold chopped sideways overnight and then jumped about $70 to as high as $4100 on the cool CPI data as the dollar and yields came in. From that high, the metal would then slip to eventually go out back down near $4050 for a gain of over a percent.
Silver similarly popped on the CPI to nearly $60 and then turned over to go out back down around $58.5 for a gain of 2 percent.
The GDX popped and then reversed to end back near its lows of the day but still up 2 percent. The GDX also closed above the 5 dma by about 25 cents for the first time since last Monday. Time will tell if this is a one-day head fake or not, which is where I am leaning given that gold and silver both ended below their 5 dma once again.
I'm almost a little surprised that the mob bit on this CPI number given that everyone (myself included) already knew it was going to be a cool number and expected a reaction like this.
The more interesting thing is the continued creep higher in oil in the background of this backward looking data point, which is sort of comical when you think about it given that people are so excited about an inflation number that is in the rear view mirror and largely the result of the decline in oil on the so-called "deal," which has gone up in smoke.
Tomorrow we'll get the PPI, which should also be "cool," but let's see if oil pops another $5 or $10 overnight once again and how people feel about that.
I still think we're likely to see the metals and miners take out the recent lows and that today's bounce is just another bounce to be sold. Whether it completely petered out today remains to be seen, but I suspect it likely it did.
I would also note that it took 4 straight days of T3 BUY signals from my model in order to create a low in the metals back in June. Yesterday was only the first day, and I suspect it came off that buy after today's bounce.
Speaking of which, my gold model hasn't updated yet so subscribers can check back in the AM for the Morning Note.
Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDY. Long DBA, IBIT and MSTR
Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. Long SLV 48 puts for tomorrow as well as the 51 puts for tomorrow that I bought today and the SLV 50 puts for Friday, which I also bought into the bounce today.