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August 11, 2026
 
     
  Waiting On A Stupid CPI Number  
     
 

The S&Ps opened up a touch and slowly leaked all day to end down a touch. Yawn?

The dollar was mixed, with the DXY ending virtually unchanged. Yields fell a bp or two.

BTC once again went nowhere. MSTR tumbled a percent.

Commodities were mixed, although crude firmed another dollar after no miracle deal appeared overnight. That didn't stop some silly Pakistani headline from appearing this morning though that a deal was oh so close again to knock crude down from its highs.

Gold traded up to as high as $4430 overnight before reversing to eventually end down half a percent in the US at closer to $4370.

silver similarly made a round trip after printing a new high for the move overnight at $66.50 before fading to end down over a percent at 64.68.

The GDX opened down a touch and briefly took out the highs of the week before fading with the metals to end near the middle of the day's range with a loss of half a percent.

Both the metals and GDX have yet to test their rising 5 dma, but if they do so tomorrow, that's a place to buy the dip.

All eyes are on this silly CPI number. Expectations are already for a cool number so the reaction may be baked in at this point and be a yawn even if the data is cool. A hot number will no doubt create a kneejerk down, but as we've seen over the past week and a half, it's not the data that's driving the metals and miners higher. They simply got sold out and are rising. That circumstance could potentially create problems down the road, but for now why let facts get in the way of a nice rally?

My gold model never quite made it to a Tier 1 SELL yesterday and remained at neutral again today.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT and STRC.

Metals: Flat but looking to buy a check back to the 5 dma.

 
     
     
 
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