Stocks opened flat and traded up about half a percent before backing off to the open once again in the afternoon and then ramping again into the close to go out near the better levels of the day with a gain of half a percent.

The FOMC minutes discussed potentially hike if inflation did not continue to decline, but I don't think anyone took them seriously, because there was zero reaction at the time.

Brent crude popped about 4 percent on chatter from some media sources that Trump was closer to attacking Iran than people think, although Polymarket still has odds of an attack by the US before March 15th at around 20 percent or less. Odds are less than 20 percent before February 27th. So, basically it seems like one should lay their bets on an attack through Polymarket rather than in crude or in the metals, because you are getting paid 4 to 1 to as much as 20 to 1 to place your bet there.

The metals bounced as well on this chatter, or rather that was the excuse anyway because rebounds back to the 5 dma within a trend are common. Gold rebounded over 2 percent and back to the 5 dma. Silver similarly rebounded over 5 percent and also tested its 5 dma.

The GDX bounced over 2 percent and back to its 5 dma as well as managed to close just over the 5 dma thanks to a closing bounce that coincided with the closing rally in the S&Ps. Nevertheless, that close did put the GDX above the 5 dma, which statistically puts the bulls back in charge. With that said, it has been VERY noisy around this average for several days now with head fakes in both directions, so I'd take this statistical tendency with a grain of salt.

HL won at beat the number and opened up about 9 percent before fading to end up only 3 percent.

NEM reports after the close tomorrow, and given its size, the reaction will most definitely affect the GDX on Friday regardless of what gold does. Expectations are very optimistic.

I still believe we're in the middle of a correction, with both gold and GDX (and NEM) sporting well defined bearish flags on the charts that failed at lower highs.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to oddly firm, and the DXY rose another half a percent today as well. If the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs on Friday, I would expect that news to be dollar bullish, at least initially, just as the tariffs were bearish for the buck last April.

My gold model remained at neutral.

Positions: I made no changes to my equity shorts, and continue to lug IBIT around. Long GDXD, GDX 90, 87 and 85 puts for Friday, and I also added some GDX 93 puts today for 13 cents as well as SLV 62 puts for Friday for 12 cents after my SLV 62s for today got smoked.