The IEA announced this morning that the G7 would be release a record amount of oil from SPRs. Never mind that the flow of those reserves was TBD.

Crude reacted to this G7 bazooka by rallying, and that's really all you need to know. WTI rose over a percent, and Brent rose nearly 3 percent. Both appear to be poised to now rip back to their highs and make new highs, and asset prices across the board aren't going to like that one bit. With the G7 having fired 4 of the 5 or 6 bullets in its clip, things may now get verrrrry interesting.

Before the open, the CPI came in nearly exactly inline with the consensus, and absolutely nobody cared, with the obvious reason being that what is going on in the Straits has drastically changed the inflation picture.

The S&Ps opened flat and basically chopped sideways all day to end down just a touch

BTC managed to add a percent, and MSTR fell a freckle. I continue to be encouraged by the action in BTC and MSTR. While they can't really get going to the upside, the fact that they aren't making new lows in this environment is a good sign.

Commodities were mostly firmer once again except for the precious metals (more on that below). The GCC and DJP both rose over a percent.

The dollar was firmer once again, with the DXY rising a third of a percent to a new closing high for the move since the Jan low.

Yields also rose once again.

Gold slipped overnight and eventually hit its low shortly after the US open at around $5148 before firming back up to $5184 for the equity close for a loss of just a touch.

Silver underperformed gold for the first time in 6 sessions (another indication of trend change?) and slumped to a low of just under $85 around mid-session in the US to mark its low. It also bounced, but could only cut its loss to about 3 percent at $86ish.

The GDX island reversed and plunged down to near yesterday's open before then firming back up to the 5 dma, where it failed. From there, the GDX would spend the rest of the day bouncing around within that trading range to end near the better levels of the day but still down 2 percent. The GDX also once again closed below the 5 dma, which suggests that yesterday's one-day close back above that key average was just a head fake and that the bears remain in charge.

Everything continues to be all one trade vs. oil. If the powers that be can make oil collapse, then all asset prices are poised to move higher, including gold, silver, and the miners. If that miracle cannot be accomplished, however, (and it won't be) then all asset prices are going lower. That's when the cries for the Fed to "do something" will start, and as we saw during this same period in 2020, the Fed will drag its feet and will only panic after investors have panicked.

The current environment reminds me a lot of the Covid crash in fact. I can remember thinking why aren't people panicking given what was obviously happening. People simply didn't want to believe it. We're seeing that same scenario play out now. There is no possibility of oil supply returning to the pre-war levels anytime soon, and even this release of the SPR does nothing but to buy a few days. There still is going to come a time when the price will need to rise exponentially until it hits a level where demand is deemed to finally be impacted enough to restrict upside in price. And that's where the spike will stop, but that spike is also going to cause a recession and a general liquidation in everything not nailed down.

On the other side of that will be a fantastic buying opportunity when the Fed starts running the printing presses again, but one has to be patient and let things play out.

The US has pulled just about every level it has at this point in order to push oil prices down. There's not a whole lot left, and Iran doesn't seem to want to play ball until it has inflicted significant pain on the US via the global economy. Thus, I would expect stocks, metals, and the miners to all make new lows for the week between now and Friday. And then people will turn to hoping for the Fed to bail them out at the FOMC next week, but they won't. Not yet. Not until a LOT more damage is done to stocks.

My gold model moved back to neutral.

Positions: I left my equity shorts unchanged. I'd like to add to my BLDR short on a bounce, but it just keeps making new 52-week lows. I also continue to be long IBIT and I will be looking to buy MSTR back as long as it continues to refuse to make new lows when the spoos slide hard again.

I also remain long GDXD and ZSL, and I added SLV 69 and 70 puts for Friday for 16 and 14 cents respectively.