The S&Ps opened up a touch this morning on chatter out of Pakistan about the US potentially ending its blockage in exchange for Iran opening the straits (they must read DMS). As the day wore on, crude began to pop around noon on reports that Tehran was under air attack again, and that sent the dollar higher and stocks lower. Metals tumbled too as usual.

After plunging to a loss of over a percent, the S&Ps then V'd out and rebounded on the news that Iran was merely test firing its AA guns, as both the US and Israel denied any action.

After rebounding to a loss of about half a percent, the S&Ps proceeded to chop sideways for the rest of the day to end near the mid-levels of the day with a loss of nearly half a percent.

The dollar index went out just off its highs with a gain of a touch, with an intraday pattern that was exactly the inverse of the S&Ps and oil.

Crude oil similarly went out off its spike high around noon, but it still ended up 4 percent.

Commodities (ex-crude) were mostly lower, including copper, which fell 2 percent.

Yields rose slightly all across the curve.

BTC fell a touch. MSTR dumped 4 percent.

Gold traded down to $4686 overnight and then rebounded ahead of the US open to as high as $4740, or nearly unchanged, on the chatter about the blockade deal. But then around noon when the reports of AA fire in Tehran hit, gold tumbled with everything else to a spike low of $4664 to mark the day's nadir. From there, gold rebounded with everything else and then chopped sideways to go out off the lows but still down a percent at $4693.

Silver similarly dumped overnight and then rebounded. After dumping to a higher low around noon when everything else collapsed, silver then rebounded and would go out off its lows at around $75 for a loss of 3 percent.

The GDX opened down and plunged to a new low for the week around noon with everything else. After a bounce, the GDX then chopped sideways to end off its lows but still down over 2 percent to a new low for the move. Once again, the GDX closed below the 5 dma, which leaves the bears in charge. With that said, there are some short-term divergences on the hourly charts which suggest a bounce may appear tomorrow.

NEM might even help with that bounce and is up after hours on its earnings after losing half a percent today. Things could change by the AM though if gold dumps again.

Has crude begun that supply and demand driven ratchet higher that I've been warning about? It sure looks like it, but there still may be one last attempt at talking it down by Trump. If he doesn't show up in the AM with a bigger Truth Social post though, oil is probably off to the races, and that means asset prices are headed into the tank again.

If gold and silver managed to rally on some Trump BS in the AM, I suspect the GDX will underperform and will only bounce to a lower high, but there may not even be a rally if we don't get some more verbal intervention to temporarily knock oil and the dollar down.

My gold model remains at neutral. It took a Tier 2 and 3 BUY to mark a low back in March.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. Long DBA and IBIT.

Metals: Long SLV 71 calls for tomorrow for 19 cents. I'll be looking to get short silver and GDX on any rally.