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September 2, 2026
 
     
  Metals Bounce Right On Time  
     
 

The S&Ps opened up a touch and quickly rallied up to a gain of about half a percent. From there, we drifted into a sideways chop for the rest of the session to go out just off the highs with a gain of just under half a percent.

The dollar was weaker, especially against the yen, where it appeared we may have seen some intervention once again. The DXY slipped a freckle.

Yields backed off a couple bps.

BTC was flat.

Commodities were mixed, with crude ending flat despite more hostilities overnight in Iran.

Gold slipped overnight but then began to rally as the dollar fell against the yen. After initially squirting up to $4400, the metal then backed off to $4365 or so before then firming into the close to go out back up near the highs at $4390 with a gain of over a percent.

Silver similarly slipped overnight but then rallied back to as high as $65.60. After fading from that high down to below $65, the white metal then rallied back with gold to go out back up near the highs at $65.40 for a gain of 2 percent.

The GDX opened up inside of yesterday's range and traded up to the 5 dma, where it was rejected. After slumping back to the open, the GDX then firmed into the close to go out near the middle of the day's range with a gain of 3 percent.

This was the bounce I thought we might see in the metals and miners today after yesterday's bullish inverted hammer, although it was a lot weaker in the metals, with neither gold nor silver even checking back to the 5 dma, than in the GDX, which did manage to tag the 5 dma.

We may still see some upside in the metals in the AM to go ahead and test that 5 dma, but I suspect any further bounce will be a sale, with more downside likely on Friday's jobs data, which will likely leave the door wide open to a rate hike in a week and a half.

My gold model remained at neutral

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, and STRC

Metals: I put GDXD and AGQ out in the afternoon and will add to them in the AM if we get some more upside. I also bought the SLV 56 puts for Friday for 10 cents, and I sold my SLV 59 calls today for 19 cents for a push.

 
     
     
 
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