The S&Ps opened flat despite crude oil and the dollar and yields all moving higher overnight. The excuse was more warfare (despite the supposed ceasefire) between Iran and pretty much everyone else, but even if that hadn't happened, I think we've shown why oil is headed higher regardless. And that has implications for yields, the dollar, etc.

It's probably also important to note that Trump was on the wires several hours before the open with more "deal soon" BS, but prices barely reacted. He may have cried wolf one too many times at this point.

The S&Ps immediately slumped into negative territory after the open, and after a brief attempt to stabilize around mid-day, we collapsed into the close to go out on the very worst levels of the session with a loss of a percent. The selling would continue in the runoff of the futures as well, which is a little unusual in recent times. AI lunacy kept the SOX afloat though, with the SOX adding another percent.

The dollar was firmer, with the DXY adding almost half a percent to just shy of a new high for the move since its double bottom in April and May. The dol/yen is also notably nearing lofty levels, where the BOJ could step in. Yields rose as well.

Commodities were mostly lower, ex-crude oil, which rose over a percent and continues to grind its way back to the highs on its way to a spike. Platinum notably tanked over 5 percent and closed below its 200 dma for the first time in forever.

BTC tanked another 3 percent and may be headed back to its Feb low. MST slumped 7 percent, and it may be headed back to its low as well.

Gold broke down to as low as $4425 shortly after the US session began after being lower all night, and that marked the day's nadir. Following a bounce, the metal would leak back to that low once again to go out near the lows of the day at $4434 with a loss of a percent to just shy of closing below its 200 dma for the first time in years. The metal did ion fact close below its 200 dma in the August futures for the first time in years.

Silver similarly slipped overnight and hit a low with gold shortly after the US open, but unlike gold, it barely bounced and eventually made new lows for the day to end down 3 percent and below the ascending support on the charts since the March low.

The GDX opened down near yesterday's low and then slumped to go out on the worst levels of the session and below both the 5 dma and the 200 dma.

Again, things are pretty simple at this point in my view. Crude oil is headed higher, and other than the occasional knee jerk on a Trump tweet about a "deal," that's all you need to know. The dollar and yields will follow crude higher as long as the market believes the Fed will remain vigilant against inflation and won't panic, and until stocks tank, the Fed won't panic given how resilient the labor market oddly remains (to be confirmed again on Friday I suspect with the jobs data). Once stocks start sliding, which may now finally be starting, things get REALLY interesting. But one down day doesn't make for a panic.

That's not a recipe for higher metals, and I continue to expect the March lows in gold and silver and GDX to be tested and then broken before this correction ends.

My gold model remained neutral.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long IBIT and DBA.

Metals: Long GDXD and ZSL. I sold my 66 puts for today for 25 cents shortly after the open (63s went poof), and added SLV 63 and 62 puts for Friday for 10 and 8 cents respectively.