Crude oil popped another 8 percent overnight after Iran warned that the Straits of Hormuz were "closed" (i.e. - we'll attack anything that tries to get through). Iran also hit some more oil infrastructure in the region as well, which didn't help.

Foreign markets plunged on the back of that, especially Europe, where the DAX tanked over 3 percent. The EEM fell 5 percent in the US today.

Interestingly, gold and silver were also smoked overnight along with virtually every other commodity too, as the dollar and yields rose once again.

All that set up a lower open in the S&Ps, and after opening down about 2 percent and dribbling a little lower, the dip buyers showed up, and we began the usual march higher.

Late in the afternoon, Trump posted on social media that he had directed the US Treasury to offer insurance to tankers that couldn't get it in order to traverse the straits, and he said the US navy could escort tanker through the straits (no date was given). Crude oil backed off about $5 on that nonsense, and the S&Ps lurched up to a marginal new high for the day.

Crude would recover $3 of that loss, and the S&Ps would slip a little into the close to go out near the highs but still down about a percent.

My housing trash shorts (XHB and BLDR) were both pounded again with yields continuing to rise in the long end. XHB fell 2 percent, and BLDR fell 2 percent to a new 52-week low.

The GCC commodity ETF fell 2 percent and may have put in a failing rally based on what we are seeing in the metals, which were all hammered today after failing at lower highs. Platinum, in particular, was whacked for 9 percent and is now sporting a rather nasty looking H&S top.

The dollar was firmer once again, with the DXY adding half a percent to a new high for the move.

Yields rose again all across the curve and more so in the short-end, which flattened the curve again. That probably needs to change in order for the metals to work again (more on that below).

If you will recall I suggested that Iran would try and close the straits and that this would be bad for stocks and not the easy victory that everyone assumed yesterday. However, despite getting this right, I still got beat, because gold and silver were crushed instead of rallying like I thought they would. There's nothing worse than being right and still getting beat, but that's the way it goes sometimes.

Gold tumbled overnight by about 5 percent and bottomed shortly after the equity market opened in the US after printing a low of $4996. From there, the metal bounced up to nearly $5150 before slipping again into the close to go out at $5087.

Silver similarly tumbled overnight and hit its low before the equity open at $78 for a loss of over 10 percent. After bouncing up to around $84, the metal tumbled again into the close to end at $82 with a loss of 8 percent.

The GDX gapped down to below its 20 dma and hit a low around mid-morning with a loss of over 10 percent. After bouncing back up to over the 20 dma, the GDX then faded into the close to go out back near the mid-levels of the day with a loss of 9 percent. Unlike yesterday, the GDX closed below the 5 dma, so now the bears are statistically in charge. Remember, this is a statistical tendency and not a "rule."

So, why did gold and silver and the miners all get crushed today? Basically, it looks like the market is treating this potential oil spike as deflationary in the short run. That will change once stocks tank enough to force the Fed to ease, but until then, everything is probably headed lower. Or at least that's my roadmap until I see differently.

I don't think the offer of insurance will change much, and the US Navy is currently engaged in a war so it may not have time to escort every tanker through the straits. On top of that, none of this worked very well in the Red Sea, where the resistance was far less than what the Iranians can potentially offer. After these "magic bean" solutions were offered, Polymarket still had the odds of "Iran closing the straits by March 31" at over 60%.

Thus, I expect oil to keep moving higher, especially if Iran attacks more oil infrastructure at its neighbors, which it probably will. And that means asset prices will continue to broadly move lower (a one-day bounce not withstanding).

But let's see a miracle happens overnight and oil collapses? Will that be bullish for gold and silver and the miners? I don't see how that will be the case either. The metals and miners are unfortunately in that lose-lose zone that they sometimes get in during war rallies. This is a short term phenomenon, but it's very real.

My gold model remained at neutral (Tier 1 SELL on Friday caught the top after all). The scary thing is that the HGNSI, which was already very high, barely backed off today. That means gold stock longs are still stubbonrly bullish even after being hit in the face with a shovel today for no real apparent reason. That's typically a very dangerous situation in my experience.

You will recall as recently as late last week I was expecting a failing rally in gold and silver and GDX before a final C-wave corrective move lower. Let's just say I was a few days early in giving up, because we now appear to be seeing that even after a marginal new high in the GDX (notice how the two biggest miners, B & NEM, didn't make new highs). What often follows is after a washout to the downside, gold then spikes to a new high but the GDX and silver diverge with lower highs. Maybe that doesn't happen this time, but I'm just tossing that out from experience.

My guess in the short-term that everything is headed lower as crude ratchets higher until we hear some chirping from the Fed about easing or maybe from Warsh, who isn't chair yet. It will take a serious being in stocks though in order to trigger that.

Positions: I left my equity shorts unchanged in SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM, XHB, and BLDR. I remain long IBIT, but I sold MSTR for a tiny gain simply as a function of risk control given the beating I took in GDXU. Let's just say MSTR moves around a lot. I will buy it back once the risk of a market dump has passed.

Speaking of GDXU, I punted GDXU for a huge loss, but I did manage to put GDXD out near the highs of the day in the GDX after it bounced and remain long GDXD. I also punted my SLV 90 calls for tomorrow for pennies on the open for a loss and then turned around bought SLV 65 puts for Wed for 20 cents and SLV 69 puts for tomorrow for 30 cents. I also bought GDX 92 puts for Friday for an average of 22 cents.