MSFT was smoked for 10 percent to a new low for the year after losing at "beat the numbah" last night, and that pressured the indices right out of the gate. After hitting a low around mid-morning with a loss of over a percent, the S&Ps would then spend the rest of the day rebounding to cut their loss to just a touch by the close. The QQQ would similarly cut its loss to just half a percent.
The dollar bounced a little but was largely a snoozer. Yields were also little changed.
In the news department, Trump said we'd get his Fed chair pick next week.
BTC was also feeling some selling pressure and tumbled 5 percent and dangerously close to breaking down to a new 52-week low.
As for the metals, gold continued to blow off overnight and ripped to nearly $5600 before backing off some as we neared the US open. Silver was less enthusiastic, and after making a marginal new all-timer above Monday's high at nearly $122, the white metal simply sat and failed to explode. Platinum similarly failed to do much on the upside.
Copper, on the other hand, was up 10 percent early on for no apparent reason.
As stocks began to slide, however, gold would collapse to as low as $5100, a decline of $500 from the overnight high. Silver would also collapse to as low as $107.
The GDX opened a tiny bit higher and then would tank down to below its 5 dma and tagged its 10 dma with a loss of over 5 percent on its lows.
Copper also reversed its gains during this period and fell to nearly unch before recovering to a gain of 5% for the close.
Like stocks, all the metals then began to rebound around mid-morning, although GDX bounced far less.
In the end, gold would go out with a gain of just a touch up around $5400, while silver would end with a loss of a freckle at around $116. The GDX, however, would go out with a loss of 4 percent and closed below its 5 dma for the first time since January 2nd, which now puts the bears statistically in charge for the first time all month.
Today's reversal had al the hallmarks of exhaustion, but we'll have to see if there is selling follow through tomorrow or not.
I've been worried about a selloff hitting, and I think today was a shot across the bow for the potential profit taking selloff into month-end that I've been warning about.
If we look at open interest in gold over the past couple days, it also suggests that much of the gains over the past two sessions (prior to today) were being driven by spec short covering given that open interest FELL 7% on Tuesday and fell another 5% yesterday, which were both days that gold skyrocketed to new all-timers in what appeared to be a frenzied manner. That frenzy now makes perfect sense if it was panicked shorts running for their lives. The downside of that, however, is that when the short covering ends, as in potentially this morning, an air pocket can develop.
I'm still worried about further downside, but we'll see what happens tomorrow...
My gold model remained at a Trifecta SELL for a 6th straight session.
Positions: I made no changes to my equity shorts, and remain long GDXD, GDX 99 puts and SLV 80 and 85 puts all for tomorrow. I also added GDX 100 puts for tomorrow this morning for 7 cents before the avalanche hit.
7:30 ET EDIT: Now Trump says he will announce his Fed chair pick in the AM (which is exactly what I figured he would do until he said today it was next week). Can't this guy make up his mind? As I've been suggesting, if his pick is a Wall Street favorite (i.e. - Warch or Rieder), that probably won't be good for gold and will probably pop the dollar. We shall see...
Polymarket odds have now shot to 83% for Warsh... I think somebody knows something!