Speculation continues to grow that a trade deal is close between The US and China ahead of this powwow between Trump and Xi late this week.

Meanwhile it remains a certainty that the Fed will cut 25 bps tomorrow. Forward guidance remains more murky. Likewise, there is widespread expectation that the Fed will end QT tomorrow as well.

A rate cut is basically priced in, and I'm not sure anyone will care about the end of QT, just as they didn't care about it beginning. Forward guidance could be a surprise one way or the other though, and I suspect PowPow will keep his cards close to his vest.

The trade deal chatter continues to be viewed as an excuse to be bullish on stocks (I left my equity shorts unchanged, where BLDR slumped back to its low for the move). The same chatter also seems to be an excuse to be bearish on the precious metals, and despite what was an all-day rally from the overnight lows to the US close, both gold and silver failed to even make it back to their falling 5 dma's. The GDX likewise didn't make it back to its 5 dma either (which leaves the bears still firmly in charge) and closed one penny below its 50 dma, which was its second close below that moving average.

Given the failure to bounce in gold, silver, and GDX, I went ahead and put my GDXD back out as well as ZSL. I also added some SLV 40 puts for Friday for 6 cents. With GDX already down on the month and silver very close to being down on the month, should they take out their lows for the week tomorrow, it could cause selling pressure to increase into month-end with both going solidly negative on the month. Gold isn't far behind either.