The S&Ps opened flat and initially dipped a little into the red before rallying back up to a new high for the day and then dipping again back to the unchanged mark ahead of the FOMC.

The FOMC statement was a snoozer other than a small upgrade in the adjective used to describe the economy. As for the reaction, the S&Ps initially slipped as the dollar and yields firmed a little. Gold and silver slipped. The odds of a hike in December per fed funds futures and polymarket firmed slightly.

Then, the dollar suddenly slumped for no particular reason, and we got some wild swings in the S&Ps and the metals that didn't appear to have much to do with anything that was going on with the Fed once Warsh began to speak, and that may have been because it was related to Iran deal BS based on the headlines that would hit near the close (more on that in a moment).

Warsh said nothing of consequence, and prices pretty much settled back to their post-FOMC midpoint across all asset prices, although the dollar remained near its lows.

Finally with about 15 minutes to go in the session, we got some vague headlines about maybe some sort of Iran deal being the in the works, and that news sent crude sliding by a couple bucks and the S&Ps flying to the upside as the dollar dipped back to its earlier lows. The metals and miners also squirted to the upside, and yields fell.

For the close, the S&Ps would go out on their best levels of the session with a gain of a third of a percent.

The dollar would end near its lows of the day per the DXY with a loss of just a touch. BTC rose a percent.

Yields in the long-end moved around a lot intraday but ultimately came to rest back near the unchanged mark, while yields in the short-end fell 5 bps in the 2yr, which steepened the curve

Commodities were mixed and little changed for the most part after having moved around a lot intraday. That is to say except for crude, which rallied over a percent after having been up even more prior to the "deal" headlines.

Gold slipped into slightly negative territory overnight and then eventually dipped to as low as $4025 in the wake of the FOMC to mark the low for the day. As the dollar then sold off, the yellow metal popped up to as high as $4063 before then reversing back to $4030 once again. Finally, gold would pop up to as high as $4080 in the final 15 minutes of the equity session as oil dipped on the "deal" BS, and for the close, the yellow metal would go out with a gain of a third of a percent at $4062.

Silver traded similarly, although it was much heavier than gold and dipped to a loss of over a percent in the wake of the FOMC before then eventually popping into the close on the same "deal" BS and briefly went positive before settling back to end down a touch at just over $54.

The GDX dipped into negative territory ahead of the FOMC and chopped sideways until the FOMC statement hit. Once the statement hit, the GDX dipped and then followed the metals in popping to the upside before giving that pop back. Just like the metals and S&Ps, the GDX then squirted higher into the close on the "deal" BS to go out on the highs with a gain of nearly a percent. That close also put the GDX above the 5 dma once again for a second day. Unfortunately, this indicator has been extremely noisy of late, so I'm not sure whether to trust it as an indication of a potential change in trend or just another head fake, which has now lasted for 2 days. And to be honest, the action today "looked like" short covering to me, but one can never be sure obviously.

Given the downtrend that the metals and miners have been in all month, I still worry about a potential month-end selloff, especially since those selloffs have tended to appear after my model moves back to neutral and before it moves to a Tier 3 BUY after a recoil in price back to the 5 dma by gold, silver, and the GDX.

Unfortunately, we have now met all of those conditions for a second day, and given that the bears have been winning all month, they may press those winners into month-end.

Now, if the month-long trend has changed for whatever reason (Iran deal or whatever), then maybe the outcome will be different this time? But if not, then the risk is now to the downside in the wake of the FOMC.

My gold model remained at neutral. Today's action wasn't great, but it unfortunately wasn't weak enough to produce a buy. As has been the trend all month, Tier 3 BUY signals seem to be getting wasted on mere tiny bounces.

Positions: Short SPY, QQQ, MDY, and IWM. Long DBA, IBIT, STRC and BLDR.

Metals: Long SLV 47 puts for Friday, which added to after the close for 11 cents to bring my average down to 13 cents. I also bought some GLD 355 puts for tomorrow for 7 cents just in case 4K gives way again.